Why owning any new EV today won't be a long-term ownership for many

[heisnuts]

LED headlights should never need replacing if they are properly driven.

The HVB should last that long (or longer) if properly maintained. Even if not the technology is going to advance and cost is going to decrease on replacements over the next decade.

If anything I can see holding onto this car even longer. Especially when I would consider myself capable of module repair once out of warranty (EE degrees and microsoldering experience FTW). Don’t doubt that this will become my 5 year old daughters car when she turns 16.

I know that's the way it is designed to work, but tell that to a lot of the Acura MDX owners who have had LED headlights since 2014 and some of those are already starting to go out at a huge expense to replace. If you think about the MME headlights, they cycle on and off a lot with coming in and out of garages, auto high beams going on and off a lot, and even walking near the car when parked in the garage if you have your fob or PAAK in your pocket. And then there is the battery life that everybody says the cost is going to be insignificant in the future, but then you realize there are not a lot of gen 1 Toyota Prius' on the road anymore. They were telling those owners the same thing when it was first sold.

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[ARK]

I think the biggest potential issue that will force people’s hand in upgrading is the infotainment system, if it doesn’t age well and becomes laggy, as older computers often do.

It’s one thing for an older car to have an unusable navigation system, it’s a totally different thing to have an old car that in addition to having an unusable navigation system, refuses to cooperate with climate controls, radio, drive mode selection, and all sorts of other changes.

Hopefully it won’t be an issue on the Mach-E but if I had to bet on what the number 1 reason will be an owner wants to switch at year 7, 8, 9, it would be this, followed by expiration of the battery warranty.

 

[Timelessblur]

The time spent is not overblown. But it depends on the number of miles/hours per day you do on the road.

We drove from Michigan to Florida, over 2 days. We also drove Michigan to Massachusetts over 2 days. And we did Michigan to Florida with the F-150 over 2 days. I posted about it here: https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/ev-vs-ice-same-trip-how-much-time-does-charging-add.12604/

Summary: With the Mach-E, we drove for 23.45 hours total, including stops. 17.9 hours of actual driving. 5.55 hours of charging. With the F-150, we drove for 20.97 hours, including stops. 18.7 hours of actual driving. Mach-E was a faster trip, averaging 67.3mph vs. 63.5 with the F-150.

The incremental difference in total trip was 2.48 hours. The incremental difference in stop time was 5.55 - 2.27 = 3.28 hours. In other words, the Mach-E stop time was 144% more.

One thing few think of is that a bathroom stop on the highway is often in and out of a rest area that's on the highway. For many DC charging stops, you must depart the highway, drive a mile or more to a DC charging location, often going through 3 or more traffic lights, and then through the parking lot to the charger. It's not an overstatement for that to take 10 to 15 minute each way for each stop. So, a 30 minute charging stop could easily become 50 - 60 minutes.

Notes:

- kids are grown and out of the house.
- we almost never buy food on the road, we bring food with us. Stops are for bathrooms, and refueling when that's necessary. A normal bathroom stop would be 10 - 15 minutes.

I would still argue over blown.
Total trip time is less than 15% increase. 23.45-20.91= 2.54. Total time increase of 12.14% increase. You are looking at stop time. Use total trip time to be a better frame of reference. That is on a long trip and at most even extended your trip chance are it will still over around 10-15% slower. Mix that with your case is not normal. Most people tended to stop for food or bathrooms a little longer. It is not road warrior speed but still 12.14% increase in time and chances are you stay more rested as you are forced to stretch your legs and break up the drive a little differently.

Hence over blown and mix that with any one with kids lets be honest it will be a hell of a lot less than a 12.14% increase in time due to well kids.

Right now yeah we dont have enough DC fast chargers. But in the next few years I expect to see them on the highway along the main routes so that 1-2 miles off the road just goes way.

 

[RickMachE]

I'll disagree, because you're ignoring the speed difference. To compare apples and apples, the stop time is what to look at.

I won't disagree on kids. It was a wonderful time when both had left the nest, although we did not establish a Terry Bradshaw room...

 

[shutterbug]

I think the biggest potential issue that will force people’s hand in upgrading is the infotainment system, if it doesn’t age well and becomes laggy, as older computers often do.

It’s one thing for an older car to have an unusable navigation system, it’s a totally different thing to have an old car that in addition to having an unusable navigation system, refuses to cooperate with climate controls, radio, drive mode selection, and all sorts of other changes.

Hopefully it won’t be an issue on the Mach-E but if I had to bet on what the number 1 reason will be an owner wants to switch at year 7, 8, 9, it would be this, followed by expiration of the battery warranty.

Also connectivity services. In 2014 I bought C-Max with 2G modem. In 2016 as 2G network was being shutdown, Ford replaced it under warranty with 3G. Now 3G network is being shutdown. I've no idea whether Ford is offering any sort of replacement, but it won't be free. Obviously this applies to all cars, and not just EVs.

 

[dbsb3233]

Some of us are older, and have owned many cars over the years. For many of us, a standard ownership period was maybe 8 - 10 years, sometimes more, the idea of running the vehicle into the ground.

This has always been us too -- buy a new car and keep it for most of it's life until it's having too many issues to mess with anymore. ~10 years, usually. But we're starting to shift that some as well. However the main reason is money. We're at the point in our lives now where we can afford better. Case in point is buying a $59k Mach-E ($49k after tax credits). Most expensive car we ever bought before was a $33k Escape in 2013. But we have the money now to splurge some. If we didn't, we would have hung on longer, and eventually replaced it with something in the similar (more affordable) range.

As for road trips and charging, our MME 4x is doing quite well. Sufficient range and charging on interstate routes hasn't been a problem. But there are still some off-interstate routes that won't work yet. In time.

I haven't found hotel L2 chargers to be a problem, even 5kW. We usually target arriving in a hotel around 10-20%. Might take 14 hours to fill that to 100% at just 5kW, but we're usually at a hotel close to that long anyway. And if we have to leave in the morning at only 80%, well so be it. Rarely are we on a route where that's a big problem (although yes, there's still some weak-coverage routes where it is).

All that to say that while we may replace the Mach-E in only 5 years, range won't be the main reason. Smoother ride and a more SUV shape would be my main reasons. (Not that 400 mile range by then won't be a nice extra, of course.)

 

[RickMachE]

Also connectivity services. In 2014 I bought C-Max with 2G modem. In 2016 as 2G network was being shutdown, Ford replaced it under warranty with 3G. Now 3G network is being shutdown. I've no idea whether Ford is offering any sort of replacement, but it won't be free. Obviously this applies to all cars, and not just EVs.

Yup.

4G in the Mach-E. 5G in the Lightning. Why the Mach-E doesn't have 5G in the 2022s I don't understand.

 

[dbsb3233]

Agreed on the use of PlugShare. On our trip to FL and back last month I looked at hotels and used PlugShare to make sure they (1) had multiple chargers, and (2) reports said the chargers were working fairly recently. I ruled out a few hotels reporting broken or erratic chargers and one that posted how "you might be able to fix it, be sure to bring a T-10 to open the box".

Plugshare is invaluable. I use the EA app first as it's the go-to where it exists. Easiest to start with that. But then for all the fill-ins (hotels, off-interstates, etc), I use Plugshare. I plan my routes and charges out at home before any road trip. I don't just get in the car and go, or let the nav recommend chargers. Maybe some day, but I want the peace of mind of knowing all the options (and risks) on a route, including the backup options. I usually plan my stops to make sure there's a backup charger in reach, just in case.

 

[AKgrampy]

There have always been the people who buy a new car every few years because they always want to be in a new car. So I believe that will remain the same. Then you have the people like me, and several other responders, who will only use their EV around town. So charge times and range will not matter so I will most likely hold on to mine like I do all of my vehicles. The only game changer for me will be if a new battery technology comes out that significantly reduces the range loss due to cold temps. I am not worried about range (no range anxiety) but at 21 cents per kWh the loss of 40% or so in the winter is a large cost factor.

What I have been wondering about is if things could go back to when gas cars did not have as much much range and the big service stations and HoJo’s popped up along the interstates. Could we see dedicated multi stall charging centers crop up? With a diner or other facilities so drivers are receiving a value while charging their vehicle. Even if it is just a Quick Stop type of set up. A state could have these at certain strategic rest areas (contracted not government owned). Just some musings.

Another thing for me, and it is probably a few years off, is the whole integration of an EV into the electric grid. I have an F150 and I could see myself in the future obtaining a Lightning and using it to store energy from solar during the day and feeding back into my house at night. Probably not if I remain here in Alaska (not much solar in the winter and no TOU differential) but certainly something I will look into if we ever move.

so for me charging and range will not impact my decisions but the upcoming possibilities in improving efficiencies are exciting. As good as an EV already is for the environment adding efficiency only makes things that much better.

 

[Cm12]

I love the Mach E but I quickly started planning for my “next” vehicle…it’s kind of sad because I don’t want to get rid of it. Cars are always improving, yes, but a typical ICE has relatively small changes over 5-10 years. Seats are nicer nowadays, cabins are nicer, etc., but it’s not a completely different vehicle as far as getting you from point A to point B.

As much as I love EVs, I think the improvements will be much more significant, especially with usability. The cabins and driving dynamics are fantastic, but the potential of 400+ mile range and better tech would totally change the usability. 211 miles would be sufficient range, but in reality it’s 100 miles or less with even moderate amounts of mountain driving in cold weather. That’s a major limiting factor that is surely going to see significant improvements. It makes me seriously question the resale value of my car when it comes time to upgrade, so much that I’m considering selling now despite how much I enjoy it. Every time I drive my wife’s ICE I appreciate the Mach E so much more but I’m legitimately worried about my car not starting or something like that due to a tech issue out in the backwoods (with no service and no way a flatbed tow could make it) to really do the activities I love with it. Still have to own an ICE right now, unfortunately.

Unlike with buying a new ICE, my next EV purchase will not be about looking for new creature comforts, but instead looking for a better way to actually make it reliably from point A to point B without worry.

 

[Mach1E]

Some of us are older, and have owned many cars over the years. For many of us, a standard ownership period was maybe 8 - 10 years, sometimes more, the idea of running the vehicle into the ground. We did that with many, but not all, of our vehicles. Traded in an old minivan during Cash for Clunkers in 2009, traded in a 15 year old Explorer to buy our 2013 F-150.

Decisions were easier. Am I happy with the vehicle's repair costs, operating costs, and appearance? Do I have the yearn for something new? And maybe, just maybe, is there some "new thing" that I have to have?

Now, with technology rapidly changing, that timeframe for many of us is going to get much shorter. I was already planning a new strategy as we entered retirement of owning new vehicles every few years, especially as we have access to Ford's A-Plan. The current market had me thinking of accelerating that, because of the combination of driving a newer vehicle coupled with making thousands in profits.

In our 8 months of charging experience, we came upon more than a handful of older Level 2 chargers, barely capable of charging the Mach-E from 10% to 100% overnight, such as at a hotel. We also realized that often it's not worth the trouble of finding a slower level 2 charger if you're only going to be somewhere for an hour or so. One hotel's level 2 charger was inoperative, while their Tesla charger might have worked (no Tesla Tap in our trunk yet). A semi-regular destination hotel has a few Level 2 chargers, upgraded after we stayed there in 2019 and had issues with their obsolete chargers. They put in new chargers which we discovered when we returned in 2021. Sounds great, right? Except they are only 5.3kW. Plugging in at 10% didn't give us a full charge by morning.

This was recently reinforced as we plan a trip to a state park with our son and his family, and decide whether to take the Mach-E or the F-150. Considered cost, considered time to get there (11 hour trip, with stops, in F-150, add at least 2 hours with the Mach-E). Then I started looking at charging opportunities at the destination. There's several DC chargers within 30 minutes or less, but the park has an EV charger. That's where PlugShare comes in, and I realize that the charger is a Level 1 charger, putting out a whopping 1.8kW of pure, raw power powered by 120v. Do the math - with a 10% loss in efficiency, that's 1.62kW. Take the 88kW battery, arrive with 20%, and go to 100% to leave. 88 x .8 = 70.4. 70.4 / 1.62 = 43.5 hours. Even if I didn't need the car every day, hogging the charger for 2 full days is pretty rude.

Luckily the campground has many RV sites, each with a nice 50 amp 14-50 outlet. I've gotten them to agree to let us use one as long as they have one open, even though we're going to be in a cabin. We'll use the portable charger and charge up overnight.

This reinforces to make sure you review your planned stops in PlugShare, and always check with your lodging destination as to what chargers exist, whether they operate, and what speed they operate at. Make sure you talk to someone knowledgeable (took us 4 attempts via email to get actual facts from the park office).

Technology is rapidly changing. Batteries, charging speeds, navigation and driving aids. The model of driving a vehicle into the ground is going to change for many as they realize they can cut a trip's duration significantly and charge less often in the years to come. I'm thinking we'll carefully watch technology for the next few years, and dump any current technology EV once the range doubles or the charging speed halves, or both.

Is it really changing that quickly?

Is a 2022 Tesla much different than a 5 year old 2017?

 

[Scooby24]

Is it really changing that quickly?

Is a 2022 Tesla much different than a 5 year old 2017?

Competition drives innovation. To this point...relatively speaking, Tesla has been more focused, IMO, on scaling because they didn't have the competition from a technology standpoint. The race will now be on to get that faster charge, higher capacity, more speed, etc....it's going to be highly competitive soon where it hasn't been for the last decade.

 

[Cm12]

Competition drives innovation. To this point...relatively speaking, Tesla has been more focused, IMO, on scaling because they didn't have the competition from a technology standpoint. The race will now be on to get that faster charge, higher capacity, more speed, etc....it's going to be highly competitive soon where it hasn't been for the last decade.

Indeed. Tesla already has much faster charging and the new 4680 battery looks to be the best in the business by a mile. The tech already exists, Ford is just way behind in applying the current tech to their vehicles. Tesla has many advantages over Ford on the tech side of things, but I think Ford builds a better vehicle. Personally, I wouldn’t buy a Tesla because I despise Elon and don’t like Tesla as a company. But I’ll give credit where credit is due. It surely won’t be long before Ford and the legacy manufacturers catch up - it’s more that the cars will change because they’re better implementing the tech currently available, rather than creating groundbreaking new stuff. Ford and the others have so much low-hanging fruit to snatch right now and that’s why I think we’ll see significant improvements in a short period.

 

[ChasingCoral]

What I have been wondering about is if things could go back to when gas cars did not have as much much range and the big service stations and HoJo’s popped up along the interstates. Could we see dedicated multi stall charging centers crop up? With a diner or other facilities so drivers are receiving a value while charging their vehicle. Even if it is just a Quick Stop type of set up. A state could have these at certain strategic rest areas (contracted not government owned). Just some musings.

Is it really changing that quickly?

Is a 2022 Tesla much different than a 5 year old 2017?

I have two friends with 2013 Model S cars.

 

[phil]

A PHEV is the safest bet for just about any commute.

Why is it safer than electric for, say, a 50-mile commute?
For that matter, why safer than gas for the same 50-miles?

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