? Mach-E December 2021 Sales & Production Numbers: 2,349 Sold / 5,405 Produced

[MinimumGain]

Sales are cars sold to customers.

Do they report the number of orders they received every month? I don't see a mention anywhere regarding current backlog....thanks!

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[RickMachE]

Do they report the number of orders they received every month? I don't see a mention anywhere regarding current backlog....thanks!

No.

 

[BC-Mach-e]

Has there been a poll or survey of breakdown by various models? (select, premium, awd or not, extended battery or not, etc)

 

[blazinazn]

Has there been a poll or survey of breakdown by various models? (select, premium, awd or not, extended battery or not, etc)

There's the spreadsheet here which is about the best I've seen anywhere as there's no official breakdown

 

[wavyphotons]

Interesting....so if we order a mach-e this week, what's the probability of being able to get the tax credit?

 

[atacama]

There’s a phase out period, so even if you don’t get $7500, you should get something…. The regulation is here.

Lightnings apparently will start getting sold in the spring (and I didn’t bother looking up the transit van or whatever it is), so Ford may hit 200k (see info in this thread) in Q2. Then the phase out starts in Q4 (Oct 1). From then until the end of 2023Q1 (until 03/31/23), the rebate will be 1/2 ($3750), and then from 2023Q2 (starting 4/1/23) through Q3 (ending 9/30/23), the credit will be 1/4 ($1875).

It’s also possible due to production delays or whatever that they don’t hit 200k until Q3 of this year - then the full credit applies through 12/31/22.

The worst outcome for this group would be that Mach-E production gets held up again and Lightning production is flawless, and we get bumped out of line for the full credit. However, the reverse is more likely - Mach-E production should be hitting its stride while Lightning has the growing pains. Anyone superstitious wishes I didn’t just say that.

It’s also possible that new legislation passes. Not very likely though.

I ordered 12/28 - fingers crossed.

 

[atacama]

Too bad the commitment to build 200k MMEs this year hasn’t shortened the wait time estimates on the order page! Still 20+ for Select & CAR1, 28+ for Premium & GT.

 

[chessplayer]

Here’s what I don’t get:
63683 YTD production
27140 YTD sales

does that mean Ford produced 36543 Mach-E’s in 2021 that were not sold? Where are all these unsold cars since the dealerships hardly have any? And why do we have to wait so long to have our orders fulfilled?

 

[Peugfan]

Here’s what I don’t get:
63683 YTD production
27140 YTD sales

does that mean Ford produced 36543 Mach-E’s in 2021 that were not sold? Where are all these unsold cars since the dealerships hardly have any? And why do we have to wait so long to have our orders fulfilled?

Did you forget about Europe?

 

[Peugfan]

There’s a phase out period, so even if you don’t get $7500, you should get something…. The regulation is here.

It’s also possible due to production delays or whatever that they don’t hit 200k until Q3 of this year - then the full credit applies through 12/31/22.

Ford never said 200,000 units for 2022. 200,000 units was for 2023. 2nd production line is not finished yet. Then there is the problem of battery supply constraints. Original battery LG production line in Poland was maxed out. SK Innovation was to supply batteries for the Lightning. I never heard where the extra Mach E batteries were coming from. Of course Transit Connect and hybrids are also counted toward the 200,000 limit.

 

[BC-Mach-e]

Here’s what I don’t get:
63683 YTD production
27140 YTD sales

does that mean Ford produced 36543 Mach-E’s in 2021 that were not sold? Where are all these unsold cars since the dealerships hardly have any? And why do we have to wait so long to have our orders fulfilled?

I imagine Canadian sales are excluded from US figures so likely 3200 more in Canada (couldn't find 2021 Canadian MME total sales, only that it was 2800 or so for first 10 months).
plus Europe and rest of the world plus unsold stock sitting on dealer lots.

 

[atacama]

Ford never said 200,000 units for 2022. 200,000 units was for 2023. 2nd production line is not finished yet. Then there is the problem of battery supply constraints. Original battery LG production line in Poland was maxed out. SK Innovation was to supply batteries for the Lightning. I never heard where the extra Mach E batteries were coming from. Of course Transit Connect and hybrids are also counted toward the 200,000 limit.

Good clarification - apparently they committed to building 200k MMEs by 2023. To be clear, the 200k in “Ford may hit 200k” is a different thing - it’s about when the total number of EVs of all models Ford has produced hits the 200k that triggers sunsetting of the federal tax credit. blazinazn says earlier in this thread “per the IRS site they're at 150K sales with at like 8K sales a month”. I just looked up that site, which has a couple of interesting things. One is that my interpretation is the IRS is counting about 8k Ford EV US sales *per quarter*, not per month. The second is that they don’t yet show data for 2021Q4. So starting with 150k after 21Q3 and assuming an increase to 10k MME/Q for 21Q4 - 22Q2, the total hits 180k, plus a few k for combined Lightning + Transit by end of 22Q2 and that would move the 200k trigger to 22Q3 and the first day of half a rebate to 1/1/23.

That’s my guess. The group here may have a better educated one.

 

[chessplayer]

I imagine Canadian sales are excluded from US figures so likely 3200 more in Canada (couldn't find 2021 Canadian MME total sales, only that it was 2800 or so for first 10 months).
plus Europe and rest of the world plus unsold stock sitting on dealer lots.

I didn't realize that the sales numbers were just for the US. The numbers make a bit more sense taking that into consideration.

 

[AstralLiving]

What is the total EV sales for ford liftetime eligible for IRS tax credit and what is best guess when they breach 200k limit ? Sept 2022?

There is a post on the Mach E subreddit with discussion on this. Takeaway from that is expecting 2022 sales will be within limits, and someone calls out that the credit will expire 2 quarters after the sales limit is reached. I hope this is the case!

 

[KennyPratt42]

There is a post on the Mach E subreddit with discussion on this. Takeaway from that is expecting 2022 sales will be within limits, and someone calls out that the credit will expire 2 quarters after the sales limit is reached. I hope this is the case!

There's some inaccurate information in that thread. The quarter in which the 200,000th qualifying vehicle is sold plus the next quarter after that are $7,500 followed by two quarters at 50% and two quarters at 25%.

In terms of when 200,000 will be reached nobody seems to have a perfect grasp, but the best estimates I've seen are Q2 2022. It's not my calculations so take it with a grain of salt. But not hitting 200,000 until 2023 is very unlikely from what I've seen.

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