NJ_MachE

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Based on last years %, it doesn't seem like Ford will meet 200k sales by end of the year. Being aggressive and saying 75% of production was sold in NA, it seems like they still won't meet 200K till Q3. Edit ** i didn't include other models but it seems like those numbers are small**

Not sure why IRS can't add but their quarterly # added together does not match to 2021 cumulative #.

From IRS website
1654196027641.png


projection based on ford numbers

1654196679865.png
The IRS numbers for 2021 add up just fine for me (at least Ford, I didn't check the others)

Definitely don't use 2021 numbers to forecast 2022. With the addition of the Lightning and E-Transit this year, combined with a slowly increasing rate of Mach-E sales and a few other eligible vehicles, sales are pretty much guaranteed to hit 200k in Q3. Also, why are you using production data for the Mach-E in your calculation above rather than US sales? The tax credit phase out is based on sales, not production (and Ford's production numbers include vehicles bound to Europe and Canada which will not count towards the cap). You can see my post above to see what I came up with. I think they will hit 200k sales in July or August.

 

Regularmache

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Actually, if they hit it in July, the full credit will still hold until December (the quarter after the 200,000 is hit). If they hit it in June, then yes it would be gone by September.
No, no, no! The tax credit reduction would not go to zero for a year. Please see General motors IRS announcement as an example how it works. Just adjust quarters and it will be a while before Fords is at Zero.

______IRS Site_____
The IRS announced today that General Motors, LLC has sold more than 200,000 vehicles eligible for the plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit during the fourth quarter of 2018. This triggers a phase out of the tax credit available for purchasers of new General Motors plug-in electric vehicles beginning April 1, 2019.

Qualifying vehicles by the manufacturer are eligible for a $7,500 credit if acquired before April 1, 2019. Beginning April 1, 2019, the credit will be $3,750 for General Motors’ eligible vehicles. On October 1, 2019, the credit will be reduced to $1,875 for the next two quarters. After March 31, 2020, no credit will be available.
 

MonorailGold

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Discussion of the tax credit, how to claim it, etc. has now prompted for me a new question. My wife and I recently did estate planning and we have our own respective Living Trusts. Our respective cars are titled in our respective Living Trusts. When I take delivery and purchase my MME in late August or September, my initial plan is to register it in the name of my Living Trust, rather than my name. Now I'm wondering if that will make things complicated regarding the federal tax credit. I'll definitely pose this question to my CPA, but I figured I'd ask here as well, if anyone has gone through a similar process.
 


markcoldren

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The production / sales reporting gets a little skewed by the timing of the releases of information. But Europe takes a large fraction due to incentives and EV culture.

The US Sales and the Cuautitlan Production numbers are reported monthly about 1-4 days after the end of the month. The European Sales are reported quarterly about 3-4 weeks after the end of the quarter.

European sales of Mustang Mach-E didn't really start in large volumes until the Q3 2021. Before that was ramp-up. Also, for some reason, I can't actually find the European Q1 2022 sales online.

In Q3-Q4 of 2021, the Mustang Mach-E sales and production numbers were:
  • Cuautitlan Production: 16,437 + 12,467 = 28,904
  • US Sales: 5,880 + 8,285 = 14,165
  • Canada Sales: 1,137 + 1,101 = 2,238
  • European Sales: 10,161 + 7,821 = 17,982
  • Total Sales of these three markets: 34,385
This means that the Cuautitlan Production volume is getting distributed approximately 41% to the US, 7% to Canada, and 52% to Europe.
 

jeffvick2005

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No, no, no! The tax credit reduction would not go to zero for a year. Please see General motors IRS announcement as an example how it works. Just adjust quarters and it will be a while before Fords is at Zero.

______IRS Site_____
The IRS announced today that General Motors, LLC has sold more than 200,000 vehicles eligible for the plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit during the fourth quarter of 2018. This triggers a phase out of the tax credit available for purchasers of new General Motors plug-in electric vehicles beginning April 1, 2019.

Qualifying vehicles by the manufacturer are eligible for a $7,500 credit if acquired before April 1, 2019. Beginning April 1, 2019, the credit will be $3,750 for General Motors’ eligible vehicles. On October 1, 2019, the credit will be reduced to $1,875 for the next two quarters. After March 31, 2020, no credit will be available.
That is right. I was meaning that the full credit would be gone.

 

 
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