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2022 Fisker Ocean anyone?

dbsb3233

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I just sent in my reservation for the Ocean. I own Tesla Model S for 7 years and has been following the battery technology since then. The technology is now going through the transition with better chemistry, battery w/o cobalt, solid state and others. They are denser, cheaper with faster charging. I like the Mach E but they use the generic lithium ion battery (not even close to Tesla's version, cost/performance) but it makes sense if Ocean does not have a fixed term contract (3+ years), I can quit the lease anytime I want to and go with another EV using the next gen. battery. I predict by 2014-2015, the 2nd gen battery will be in production and this may be the time the ICE car owners will start buying EV in massive. EV price will be on par with ICE cars. Model S was expensive 7 years ago was due to $200+ per KW battery. Today they are closer to $100/KW, it make a hugh difference in cost.
Agree with most of your points (I presume you meant 2024-2025). Although I'll throw one offset in there -- charging time. I agree with you that we're going to see major growth in BEV market share this decade. I think we could see something like 30% market share by the end of the decade, maybe more as battery density improves and cost comes down.

However, unless charging times improve significantly, that will be a big limiting factor preventing BEVs from reaching 60%... 70%... 80% market share. For the people that don't have their own house and garage to charge overnight, BEV practicality gets much tougher. Then it will track more how well apartments and condos and workplaces can flood their secure parking lots with L2 chargers reserved for their tenants/employees.
 

jandkw

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Typo, 2024-2025 of course. I do agree a point on no garage to charge overnight. If you take a look at the solid state battery research in the lab, one can charge 80% in 5-10 minutes, of course, to get to mass production is another story. This is equal to the time it takes to fill up the gas tank. Car owners don't buy cars every year. The survey says new car owners keep their cars 6+ years. Europe & China move fast on EV due to their country's incentives and environmental concerns. US is not so it will take time to phase over. I can tell you one thing, after 7 years of EV ownership, it will be extremely hard for me to move back the ICE driving.
 

dbsb3233

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Typo, 2024-2025 of course. I do agree a point on no garage to charge overnight. If you take a look at the solid state battery research in the lab, one can charge 80% in 5-10 minutes, of course, to get to mass production is another story. This is equal to the time it takes to fill up the gas tank. Car owners don't buy cars every year. The survey says new car owners keep their cars 6+ years. Europe & China move fast on EV due to their country's incentives and environmental concerns. US is not so it will take time to phase over. I can tell you one thing, after 7 years of EV ownership, it will be extremely hard for me to move back the ICE driving.
Or close to it, anyway. A gas refuel really only takes about 2 minutes (not counting the nozzle and pay components that apply to both). Still though, 5-10 minutes would be dramatically better than 20-40 minutes. I do wonder if that will ever happen on personal cars though, since we're talking some dangerously high voltage levels to pump in something like 60 kWh in just 5-10 minutes. It's one thing to put that in the hands of professionals, but quite another to put it in the hands of regular Joe's.

The original owner may turn a car over every 6 years on average, but that doesn't represent the lifetime of the car. That's more like 10-15 years. The first owner buys new and drives it for 6 years before selling to the 2nd owner who drives it for another 6 (for example). That's the stat that matters in terms of the total mix of vehicles on the road (vehicle lifetime).

For people that have a house+garage that can easily charge at home, I agree that we'll see tremendous BEV growth in the next 5 years. Especially if it's a 2-car household (1 BEV + 1 ICE or PHEV) where they can use the BEV as the home-base car and take the ICE on road trips. Best of both worlds. That's what I'll be doing. It's the easiest scenario. But for more limiting scenarios, it requires more compromise. I do think the next important implementation hurdle is getting more secure, dependable L2 charging into apartment, condo, and workplace parking lots/garages. That will expand the universe of potential BEV buyers in a practical sense.

I really don't think retail charging stations will become fast enough to be gas station equivalents (i.e. where people will do most of their refueling). It's OK for a rare slow charge, but I don't think most people will put up with that for their regular refueling. Most needs to be "park it and forget it" (like overnight, or at work).
 



 








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