Am I at risk of not getting the $7,500 tax credit?

[rcechinel]

Bear with me on my anxiety for a moment.
I live in Atlanta, in a non-EV state. My dealer is fairly large, located at the suburbs of Atlanta. He just told me that, in the last 4 eeeks, only one of his customers got a production date (he has dozens on order).
I have a 12/30/2021 order of a Premium ER AWD, the model that is not even for sale anymore due to extra long lead times and high demand.
If you pair this information with what Patrick just posted on the Mach-e Vlog where he says Ford expects to hit the 200K mark by the third quarter of this year, I would only get my full tax $7.5k credit if the car is delivered this year, which I thought it was never at jeopardy.
But with supply chain issues getting even more complicated because of the war, I think I'm at risk. On the Atlanta subforum, people have waited up to 13 months for their cats, which would put me in 2023.

Am I panicking for nothing or is the risk real?

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[Sam2084]

It’s a real risk but there’s nothing you can do about it.

 

[Godawgs]

Out of curiosity which dealer are you using? I’m in Lawrenceville and ordered from Gwinnett Place Ford.

 

[rcechinel]

Jim Ellis Ford in Sandy Springs.

 

[rcechinel]

It’s a real risk but there’s nothing you can do about it.

Well, kind of. I'm trying to test drive an EV6.

 

[Godawgs]

Jim Ellis Ford in Sandy Springs.

I think they’re bigger than GPF, so it probably doesn’t bode well for me either. I’ve been looking at trying to find one on the lot but that’s been a challenge. Angela Krause has 13 of them but they’re all marked up, but after visiting them last weekend I understand it to an extent (not the GTPE marked up $15k…) as all the ones I saw were transferred down from dealers in the north east. Now I’m looking at going to dealerships out of state but that’s tough too.
Almost bought the GT in Ohio that was shared on here a couple weeks back but it didn’t have the 360 camera and that was the only feature my wife has to have. Reached out to some others but haven’t heard back, but hoping I will tomorrow.

 

[AKgrampy]

Bear with me on my anxiety for a moment.
I live in Atlanta, in a non-EV state. My dealer is fairly large, located at the suburbs of Atlanta. He just told me that, in the last 4 eeeks, only one of his customers got a production date (he has dozens on order).
I have a 12/30/2021 order of a Premium ER AWD, the model that is not even for sale anymore due to extra long lead times and high demand.
If you pair this information with what Patrick just posted on the Mach-e Vlog where he says Ford expects to hit the 200K mark by the third quarter of this year, I would only get my full tax $7.5k credit if the car is delivered this year, which I thought it was never at jeopardy.
But with supply chain issues getting even more complicated because of the war, I think I'm at risk. On the Atlanta subforum, people have waited up to 13 months for their cats, which would put me in 2023.

Am I panicking for nothing or is the risk real?

Panicking a bit. First off the tax incentive goes away one quarter after sales exceed 200,000. Also if cars are delayed then so will sales so then it may be until Qtr 4. So you should be good for a purchase this year but nothing is certain in life but death and taxes (not tax incentives!)

 

[JoeDimwit]

Couple things I’d like to say that might quell your anxiety…
1. If the supply chain has issues for the Mach-E, those constraints will likely also affect the F-150 Lightning too.
2. I would bet that the only way they cross 200,000 in the third quarter is if it’s early in the quarter.they would be shooting themselves in the foot if they crossed 200,000 at the end of a quarter.

 

[DennisD]

Bear with me on my anxiety for a moment.
I live in Atlanta, in a non-EV state. My dealer is fairly large, located at the suburbs of Atlanta. He just told me that, in the last 4 eeeks, only one of his customers got a production date (he has dozens on order).
I have a 12/30/2021 order of a Premium ER AWD, the model that is not even for sale anymore due to extra long lead times and high demand.
If you pair this information with what Patrick just posted on the Mach-e Vlog where he says Ford expects to hit the 200K mark by the third quarter of this year, I would only get my full tax $7.5k credit if the car is delivered this year, which I thought it was never at jeopardy.
But with supply chain issues getting even more complicated because of the war, I think I'm at risk. On the Atlanta subforum, people have waited up to 13 months for their cats, which would put me in 2023.

Am I panicking for nothing or is the risk real?

You will be fine according to this website below. Like mentioned above, everything is slowed way down. As long as you were on queue early on, you will be fine IMO.

https://electrek.co/2022/03/04/which-electric-vehicles-still-qualify-for-us-federal-tax-credit/

 

[BMT1071]

Panicking a bit. First off the tax incentive goes away one quarter after sales exceed 200,000. Also if cars are delayed then so will sales so then it may be until Qtr 4. So you should be good for a purchase this year but nothing is certain in life but death and taxes (not tax incentives!)

The tax credit doesn't "go away" one quarter after 200k units. It starts to be reduced. The exact specs of the program aren't jumping right to mind, but you still get some credit for close to a year after the 200k mark, just not the full $7.500.

 

[rcechinel]

Panicking a bit. First off the tax incentive goes away one quarter after sales exceed 200,000. Also if cars are delayed then so will sales so then it may be until Qtr 4. So you should be good for a purchase this year but nothing is certain in life but death and taxes (not tax incentives!)

thank you, I hope you are right. My whole point is that If deliveries of non-premium trims are not decelerating as much, especially in other states, I'm at a higher risk due to my trim and state.

 

[rcechinel]

The tax credit doesn't "go away" one quarter after 200k units. It starts to be reduced. The exact specs of the program aren't jumping right to mind, but you still get some credit for close to a year after the 200k mark, just not the full $7.500.

Patrick explains in the video I posted.

 

[FLmac]

The problem is there’s too much out of your control. The best thing you can do is try to find a car on a lot somewhere (probably with some sort of markup) and take advantage of the current known credit. I think Ford is going to do everything they can to make the Lightning roll out a PR win. Whether that means the same number will be delivered no one knows. Without a production date, it’s so hard to know if you’ll fall within the tax credit. Hell, even with a production date who knows at this rate.
I have 2 on order from mid October and no production date on either. I bought one off a lot a month ago, but plan on keeping my orders to see what happens. More than likely I will just keep the 21 I bought last month, but if I can get a good value on mine when my order comes in and the tax credit is still in play it may be worth it.

I don’t know how you feel about paying an ADM, but if you need someone to convince you I have a list of why it’s worth it vs waiting.

 

[Phil-Springs]

Don’t know if this helps. I won’t go through all my logic , but for my 12/5 CA Rt 1 Awd ext order … I am guessing I’ve got a good chance of getting built by the end of July . I’ll be looking to pick one off the lot as my real need date approaches. I’ll be keeping my original order and choosing which car to keep unless the tax credit goes away by that time.

 

[rcechinel]

The problem is there’s too much out of your control. The best thing you can do is try to find a car on a lot somewhere (probably with some sort of markup) and take advantage of the current known credit. I think Ford is going to do everything they can to make the Lightning roll out a PR win. Whether that means the same number will be delivered no one knows. Without a production date, it’s so hard to know if you’ll fall within the tax credit. Hell, even with a production date who knows at this rate.
I have 2 on order from mid October and no production date on either. I bought one off a lot a month ago, but plan on keeping my orders to see what happens. More than likely I will just keep the 21 I bought last month, but if I can get a good value on mine when my order comes in and the tax credit is still in play it may be worth it.

I don’t know how you feel about paying an ADM, but if you need someone to convince you I have a list of why it’s worth it vs waiting.

Feel free to entertain, please. ?

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