An auto CEO came very close to saying the right thing about heavy EV batteries

dbsb3233

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Short range works for dorky little compact people-movers like the LEAF or Bolt, but for the price required of a larger comfier car, people are gonna expect range to satisfy all reasonable use cases.
It's also telling that the Leaf, which has been around since last decade and was generally not supply-constrained like the new wave of ~300 mile vehicles, suffered from relatively low demand in the US.

The Bolt, Kona, and Niro didn't exactly light up the scoreboard either. EV econocars haven't really caught on.
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It's also telling that the Leaf, which has been around since last decade and was generally not supply-constrained like the new wave of ~300 mile vehicles, suffered from relatively low demand in the US.

The Bolt, Kona, and Niro didn't exactly light up the scoreboard either. EV econocars haven't really caught on.
agreed on the low demand side. hopefully with more push for multifamily dwelling and community charging will help assuage reluctance in adoption and boost demand. currently there just aren't enough practical charging options for the masses who aren't living in single family homes.
 

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agreed on the low demand side. hopefully with more push for multifamily dwelling and community charging will help assuage reluctance in adoption and boost demand. currently there just aren't enough practical charging options for the masses who aren't living in single family homes.
Our city has recently added to the code a requirement for a relatively small, but non-zero number of L2 EVSEs to any new developments with parking lot requirements (i.e., multifamily dwellings, whether condos or apartments, etc). It's a good start.
 

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I don't disagree with most of your points, but the fact is that BEVs are better than ICE vehicles in just about every way. As you point out, the biggest problem right now is cost, but the car companies know they will be able to get cost into alignment. Tesla did it, and certainly Ford and the others will. Initially they will lose money, but they know in the long run they will make a crap ton of money selling BEVs.

So maybe the BEV market would be smaller than it would have been without government interference, and that is a big "maybe" IMO, but it is not reasonable to say there would be no BEV market. Yes, previous BEV efforts have failed, but they have kept trying to produce BEVs even without government manipulation. Why would they stop now that the technology has progressed to the point that it is a very attractive business case? So attractive there are new companies (like Tesla) starting up to compete.

Innovation does not need to be mandated by the government. As I posted previously, super cheap electricity would do much more for BEV adoption than anything else. Lots of people are interested in BEVs because they are cheaper to operate. But if governments keep driving up the cost of electricity, making it more expensive than operating an ICEV, what will that do to BEV demand?
Yes, cost is the biggest factor (but not the only disadvantage).

Unfortunately, when it comes to running a profitable business, cost may be the most important thing.

But for electric cars to succeed, they’re still dealing with the same issues they had when they failed 100 years ago:

Energy Density
Cost
Charging
Range
Reliability

While they’ve come a long way, they still lag behind ICE vehicles. So buyers have to compromise on the above things.
It’s a good thing they drive so stinkin nice now!

As far as the new companies go, Tesla is the only one truly competing, and no chance they’d still be here without the government getting them to this point.

And we shall see how they do when the electric car market gets super crowded in the next decade.

I predict multiple bankruptcies in the automotive world in the next 10 years. Most in the BEV sector.
 

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There's also the "freedom" factor. While we love road-tripping in our Mach-E (30,000 miles of log road trips now), it does take a lot of planning and research to ensure the DCFC exists and looks dependable enough to do that route. And it also limits routes. Some are good but some aren't. And some are downright impossible.

And that's if sticking to the plan with no changes. There's definitely value in having the ability to change your mind at the last minute and just do an unplanned diversion off the interstate for a while. That's a non-issue in an ICE car because you have 400 *real* miles in the tank to play with before needing to refuel. But in a EV we're basically locked into a flight plan between DCFC stations, usually with little room for error. Especially if following the EV trip planners that advise filling just barely enough to reach the next DCFC. And God help you if anything changes.

More range adds more flexibility and more freedom.
I don't know if it will ever get there, but a big part of this would be fixed by having DCFC stations everywhere. If there was an Electrify America station at every freeway exit, this same type of freedom could be achieved even without having the longer range - though both would be great.
 


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I don't know if it will ever get there, but a big part of this would be fixed by having DCFC stations everywhere. If there was an Electrify America station at every freeway exit, this same type of freedom could be achieved even without having the longer range - though both would be great.
except for specifying Electrify America, that is exactly what the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program is trying to achieve:

https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/bipartisan-infrastructure-law/nevi_formula_program.cfm
 

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I understand your point. You are correct that much of the enthusiast coverage, and media coverage at large, emphasizes range.

But I don’t think there is a big market of people willing to “make do” with 100-150mi range unless it is at such a significantly lower price point that people can afford to buy them as second/third vehicles.

For example, if Ford could sell a car with comparable comfort and tech to the Mach E but a shorter range for 20k, then yeah, that might make sense. People might buy one as a “city driving car.”

But the argument fails when Ford is charging $40k+. For that price, people expect a car that can satisfy all reasonable use cases, including infrequent road trips.

Even with a smaller battery pack, that would still only shave $10k off the Mach E’s price - at best.

Can you see the problem now? Short range works for dorky little compact people-movers like the LEAF or Bolt, but for the price required of a larger comfier car, people are gonna expect range to satisfy all reasonable use cases.

I’m not saying we need to get into an arms race requiring bigger and heavier battery packs up to 500 miles - on that I agree with Farley - but 300mi range is a very reasonable expectation. Cutting that range to 200mi to save $10,000 just doesn’t work! There will be no demand for that.
I agree, I do think price would be key for making vehicles with shorter range enticing.

When I was growing up, my parents each had their own car. One would be a larger, more comfortable SUV or minivan, while the other would be a sedan (typically a bit nicer than the SUV - the money saved on being a smaller vehicle would basically go towards getting a nicer car). Typically, if we were going on a trip away from home, we would either take the mid-size SUV or even sometimes rent something bigger (like a Suburban) to more comfortably fit everyone's stuff.

I don't think this experience was too unusual, even before the EV age, we basically always had at least one car that basically never, ever went on a roadtrip away from home.

I think these kinds of cars would be best suited for the smaller battery. Like BMW's i4 35e, which has range in the low 200s. In a two car household, I don't think a BMW i4 would get chosen for a roadtrip if the family also owns an SUV.
 

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I agree, I do think price would be key for making vehicles with shorter range enticing.

When I was growing up, my parents each had their own car. One would be a larger, more comfortable SUV or minivan, while the other would be a sedan (typically a bit nicer than the SUV - the money saved on being a smaller vehicle would basically go towards getting a nicer car). Typically, if we were going on a trip away from home, we would either take the mid-size SUV or even sometimes rent something bigger (like a Suburban) to more comfortably fit everyone's stuff.

I don't think this experience was too unusual, even before the EV age, we basically always had at least one car that basically never, ever went on a roadtrip away from home.

I think these kinds of cars would be best suited for the smaller battery. Like BMW's i4 35e, which has range in the low 200s. In a two car household, I don't think a BMW i4 would get chosen for a roadtrip if the family also owns an SUV.
I don't have data in front of me, but I think your guess is probably pretty close, for middle-class and above, but when I was growing up, we could only afford junkers and we'd do road trips in them regardless of their suitability. Six or seven people in a Chevrolet Chevette? Sure thing. All the kids in the back of a flatbed C60? Not a concern (well, that one time one of my siblings ended needing 100 stitches because they fell out was a concern)...

Poor people do what they believe they need to do to survive and often it means stretching the capability of a vehicle well beyond what it should be doing.

All the "that idiot" memes showing someone overloading their sedan at the lumber center or towing a trailer way too heavy for their car...much of that behavior is because we didn't have much choice.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a Leaf with an additional battery pack strapped down in the back, or towing a half-leaf trailer with an extra battery for range extension.

I know you're not saying anyone is an idiot.

My point is that the lower range used vehicles that are going for $5k-$10k are going to get some interesting re-engineering to make them more viable because the poor are never considered valued customers of the big companies, so they have to do their own engineering. I, for one, am looking forward to this in some ways, though I would still prefer to see smaller EVs with decent prices made available.
 
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dbsb3233

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I don't know if it will ever get there, but a big part of this would be fixed by having DCFC stations everywhere. If there was an Electrify America station at every freeway exit, this same type of freedom could be achieved even without having the longer range - though both would be great.
Sure, except that's not practical nor even close to cost effective. We definitely need more DCFC stations, and chargers at stations. But the economics are usually really bad for that. It can't come close to gas coverage because 90% of charging is a home, so even if BEVs were 100% of the vehicles on the roads, that's still only 10% of the DCFC demand (i.e. revenue to support itself) that gasoline has.

And currently, EVs are only like 1.3% of the vehicle on US roads. That means like 0.13% of the DCFC sales revenue relative to gas. That will gradually improve but it will always be woefully short of gas revenues. Making it really hard to come close to supporting itself, which makes it hard to expand the network much. Taxpayers won't put up with throwing $billions of their money at it forever.

What really has to happen is for the costs of the equipment and installations to come WAY down from what it is now. Tesla seems to have found a secret sauce for that with Supercharger costs, but no one else seems close yet. A quarter $million per DCFC charger just isn't sustainable relative to the modest sales revenue.
 
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ok, i'll bite: what specific government regulations are hindering (making it more expensive and harder) current BEV innovation industry progress? are those regulations specific to the BEV industry or are they general regulations that cover other industries?

how do incentives "forc[e] the change to happen"? my stance is the incentives (primarily in the form of tax credits and funding for specific projects) are there to encourage a direction to move in and hopefully accelerate that move. they don't "force" anything.

if the free market is so powerful and doesn't agree with that direction wouldn't the incentives prove to be useless?
"Data shows that the states with government-mandated RPS or cap-and-trade programs have higher electricity prices. While this study gives a snapshot of 2020 prices, evidence shows that implementing an RPS or carbon pricing mechanism can also be causal in leading to higher prices over time – up to an 11% increase due to the implementation of an RPS alone. This study’s data supports this assertion from a simple correlation standpoint.5

The 16 states with the highest electricity prices all have an RPS in place, as do 18 of the highest-priced 20 states. Similarly, each of the states in the RGGI or another cap-and-trade program is within the 15 states with the highest prices of electricity. While Virginia has not officially joined the RGGI as of December 2020, if Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin is unable to complete his goal of withdrawing from the compact, Virginia’s residents are going to pay significantly higher electricity prices as a result. Unless the decision is reversed, Virginia’s State Corporation Commission expects additional costs on ratepayers to amount to $6 billion, solely for customers of the state’s largest utility provider, Dominion Energy, should the state join the RGGI.6"

Microsoft Word - 2022 EEA Energy Affordability_FINAL (alec.org)

Incentives don't "force" the change to happen, and I think it is likely they have not had a significant impact on the adoption of BEVs. Certainly some people would not have purchased their MME without the BEV rebate, but most who can afford a $54k car can afford a $62k car, and it isn't a relevant consideration. It is just a bonus. That is the case for me. I was happy to get $7.5k of my earnings back from the IRS, but I still would have purchased my MME without it. So maybe we agree on this point. Most of the subsidies have not done anything to increase the adoption of BEVs.

When I am referring to "force", I am referring to mandates like the one CA has planned that will outlaw the sale of new ICE vehicles. That is definitely force, and it is a horrible path to take IMO. And it isn't necessary or beneficial for them to do that. In fact, I think it is a tyrannical mindset to ban things.
 

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https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/22/23733215/ford-ev-battery-size-weight-safety-jim-farley

An auto CEO came very close to saying the right thing about heavy EV batteries
/ Good job, Jim Farley. You almost got there.
By Andrew J. Hawkins, transportation editor with 10+ years of experience who covers EVs, public transportation, and aviation. His work has appeared in The New York Daily News and City & State.
May 22, 2023 at 4:30 PM EDT|161 Comments / 161 New
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Photo by Bill Pugliano / Getty Images
The race to cram heavier and heavier batteries into bigger and bigger electric vehicles hit a speed bump today when a major automaker CEO finally threw up his hands and asked why.
“I have no idea what’s going on in this industry right now,” Ford CEO Jim Farley said during his company’s capital markets event Monday. He referenced electric vehicles coming out with 450–500 miles of range, including “a three-row crossover” announced today that was likely the new electric Cadillac Escalade.
Higher ranges will necessitate bigger batteries, he noted, adding, “These batteries are huge.”

“These batteries are huge.”
Farley is right. US automakers are relying on supersized batteries to power their equally supersized EVs — namely, all the electric trucks that will soon flood the US market. Car companies (perhaps rightly) assumed that the best way to sell America’s truck-loving population on plug-in power is to electrify a bunch of pickups. And big trucks need big batteries to justify big range to address anxiety any truck buyers may have about switching sides to electric.
The Rivian R1T truck and R1S SUV run on batteries as large as 135kWh. The Hummer EV’s 212kWh battery is heavier than a Honda Civic. Chevy just announced a higher range estimate for its forthcoming Silverado EV for a total of 450 miles on a single charge. That’s thanks to the 200kWh Ultium battery firing its electrons beneath the floorboards of this 8,000-pound behemoth. The Ram 1500 REV includes an option for a 229kWh battery for a targeted range of 500 miles.
This is not sustainable. Bigger batteries, longer range, heavier trucks... these are not the hallmarks of the sea change the auto industry is trying to sell us on. It’s evidence in support of the old adage, “the more things change, the more they stay the same.” We’re swapping bad stuff, like tailpipe emissions, for other bad stuff, like everything involved in the mining, refining, and manufacturing of an EV battery.

Bigger batteries, longer range, heavier trucks... these are not the hallmarks of the sea change the auto industry is trying to sell us on
There are also a host of environmental concerns around these beefcake batteries. EVs are generally heavier than their internal combustion engine counterparts. But what many people seem to forget is that heavier vehicles are inherently more polluting than lighter ones, regardless of whether they emit any tailpipe emissions. All vehicles produce non-exhaust emissions from a variety of sources, including rubber tires, road dust, and brakes. This is especially true for electric vehicles thanks to the added weight from their batteries.
Heavier vehicles are deadlier, too. When a pedestrian or cyclist is struck by a vehicle the size and weight of a Ram 1500 REV or Hummer EV, they are more likely to die than when they are struck by a Toyota Corolla. A lot of that has to do with the outsize dimensions of these trucks — boxier front ends and taller hoods are more likely to strike someone in the head or upper torso than a sedan, which is more likely to hit a person in their legs.

vpavic_220621_5352_0004.jpg

Photo by Vjeran Pavic / The Verge
But weight has a lot to do with it, too. Last I checked, mass multiplied by velocity equals momentum. Basic physics. The heavier the vehicle, the more likely it is to kill you when it hits you.

To be sure, Farley’s beef with battery sizes isn’t really about safety or the environment but, rather, about cost. Heavier batteries are more expensive to manufacture and tend to squeeze profit margins, of which automakers are very protective. Which is why I can only give him partial credit for coming to the realization about America’s battery obesity epidemic.
“If you have those kinds of batteries, you will not make money,” Farley said during today’s event. “So we’ve got to start talking about the size of batteries for the range, the efficiency.”
And Ford is also guilty of contributing to the escalation in the EV battery arms race with its F-150 Lightning extended range version with its 1,800-pound, 131kWh battery — about the size of a Volkswagen Beetle. That’s enormous.
I’m glad Farley has come to the conclusion about the insatiability of EV battery sizes. Especially if it results in smaller, more efficient batteries in the company’s upcoming EVs (TBD). Did he arrive at the realization exactly as I would have liked? Of course not. But I’m not going to begrudge the journey he’s on. There’s still time left.
Oh look, yet another "you don't need that big SUV and you don't need that big range" condescending article, and the condescending comments that inevitably follow! How refreshing! It's been at least a couple weeks since the last one of these.

Once DCFC are readily available every 50 miles of interstate, and can add 200 miles in 10 minutes, you'll have a point about range. Until that day comes, you're wrong.

We purchase cars for all reasonable use cases - even relatively rare ones like long road trips. You don't tell someone to skip the roof just because it only rains 5% of the year.
There you go! Totally agree. And I’m sick of this false equivalency bullshit. Oh no, more brake dust? Mining is bad? Like the emissions and mining from oil refineries isn’t just as bad or worse. It’s about moving forward. We used kill whales for lamp oil FFS. Petroleum’s day came and went and in 100 years almost totally destroyed the planet. We need to get more range so people stop crying about road trips and the product needs to meet those needs. 250 miles was the first tipping point to get it scalable, 600 miles (with 10 minute charging) is the next point to make it undeniably better. Today’s batteries (basically 20 year old laptop tech) are not what we will be using in 5 or 10 years. Lighter, faster charging and longer lasting and we will get it done. Look at how far we’ve come since 2000.
 

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600 miles (with 10 minute charging) is the next point to make it undeniably better. Today’s batteries (basically 20 year old laptop tech) are not what we will be using in 5 or 10 years. Lighter, faster charging and longer lasting and we will get it done. Look at how far we’ve come since 2000.
I agree that we are one more big jump in battery/charging tech away from mass EV adoption. But I’m not so sure on the timeline to when that jump occurs.
 

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The weight issue is precisely why I opted for the standard range 66 KWH rather than extended range 86 KWH battery. The 86 is 500 pounds heavier - meaning almost all the time carrying two linebackers in the back seat, reducing efficiency, crating more tire and brake wear, etc.

And for what? I seldom take a long road trip. When I do, I can extend my range by simply driving a bit slower - and why lug around all that weight when it would only provide a modest advantage perhaps 6 days per year for me?

Larry Weisenthal/Huntington Beach
 

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The weight issue is precisely why I opted for the standard range 66 KWH rather than extended range 86 KWH battery. The 86 is 500 pounds heavier - meaning almost all the time carrying two linebackers in the back seat, reducing efficiency, crating more tire and brake wear, etc.

And for what? I seldom take a long road trip. When I do, I can extend my range by simply driving a bit slower - and why lug around all that weight when it would only provide a modest advantage perhaps 6 days per year for me?

Larry Weisenthal/Huntington Beach
FYI - the extended range battery is 91 kWh usable, and 99 kWh total. The 2021s were released with 88 kWh usable capacity but that was expanded to 91 kWh with an OTA update.
 

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Oh look, yet another "you don't need that big SUV and you don't need that big range" condescending article, and the condescending comments that inevitably follow! How refreshing! It's been at least a couple weeks since the last one of these.

Once DCFC are readily available every 50 miles of interstate, and can add 200 miles in 10 minutes, you'll have a point about range. Until that day comes, you're wrong.

We purchase cars for all reasonable use cases - even relatively rare ones
We purchase cars for all reasonable use cases - even relatively rare ones like long road trips. You don't tell someone to skip the roof just because it only rains 5% of the year.
For two decades - long before I purchased my 2016 Volt and 2021 MME - I rented a car for any trip beyond 250 one way miles - simply because I wanted to spare my own cars the wear and tear. Also because I like taking really big cars and SUVs on these road trips.

Larry Weisenthal/Huntington Beach
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