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Best Guess on When Premium Trims Will Start Arriving

GoGoGadgetMachE

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Sometime before Dec. 31, 2022.
 

ChasingCoral

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Just remember there are some important things to remember when converting reservation numbers into production order. These are detailed in
https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/
especially the latest:
https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-27825
(Yes, I need to update this soon with some of the new intel)

Basically, 0-3999 were either not issued or reserved for private Ford use, so numbers start at 4,000.
~35% GTs that will be produced next summer
~60% of 1st year production were slated for EU/UK.

So a 13,000 reservation becomes 9,000, becomes 5,850 cars ahead of you when accounting for GTs. That may even go down to 2,340 if 60% of early orders were EU (really don't know if that holds). Assuming 1,000 cars produced per week, you are around week 2-6 of production after First Editions finish.
Actually, someone pointed out on another thread that if I listen this as time post-yes, I need to account for FEs. FE reservations were around 15%, so that initial 35% part is wrong. While 35% are GTs and will come out next summer, 15% are FEs and come first, so

9000 * .5 = 4500 *.4 = 1800. You pick up part of a week.
 

Badger_Prof

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Anyone have an educated guess on when premium models will start arriving at dealer lots? Maybe someone who followed Tesla launches in the past?

I suppose it depends a lot on how many FEs will get built, which we don’t know?

Basically trying to figure out the likelihood of getting my premium this year if the dealer submitted my order in late June - within a couple of days of order books opening up, but not on the first day.

if I get it this year, I can get the federal tax credit on 2020 taxes, but if I get it in January 2021 or later, I will at least get an extra year of HOV lane solo access in California based on how that program works.
I am sure this has been addressed previously but can someone tell me where Ford officially said that they will produce all of the FEs before they produce any of the Premiums or Selects? Isn't it possible that "First Edition" is just a trim line?
 

ChasingCoral

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I am sure this has been addressed previously but can someone tell me where Ford officially said that they will produce all of the FEs before they produce any of the Premiums or Selects? Isn't it possible that "First Edition" is just a trim line?
Well, let's see. You asked the same question on 8/25 in:
https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...e-first-edition-mach-e-orders.1274/post-30280
and it was answered by the next day, including in:
https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...e-first-edition-mach-e-orders.1274/post-30336
Did you just not like the previous answer?

How about if this time you do the Google searches and let us know what YOU find?
 
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ARK

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I am sure this has been addressed previously but can someone tell me where Ford officially said that they will produce all of the FEs before they produce any of the Premiums or Selects? Isn't it possible that "First Edition" is just a trim line?
Maybe someone else knows otherwise, but you know, I just assumed from the name that that would be the case. I just looked through the Ford press releases that might confirm that but none actually say that as far as I can see.

Dunno maybe there has been an interview or something where a Ford official has confirmed that FE's will be delivered first.

Still, I couldn't imagine them delaying the FE in favor of other trims. At best, and this is complete speculation on my part, I could see them wanting to build some of every trim each week due to supply line/inventory management issues, and if so maybe they would start shipping all non-GT trims at the end of this year, going to people based on reservation order within each trim (or perhaps location within North America - I was reading recently how the very first Mustang was sold to some guy in Atlantic Canada because he was the furthest from the factory and deliveries started furthest out - see Wiki page on Stanley Tucker).
 

Kamuelaflyer

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The answer to the question as to whether FE's will be produced first has been answered --repeatedly. It's even in the link given above. And elsewhere. The person posing the question (again) is looking for an answer they approve of.
 

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Well, let's see. You asked the same question on 8/25 in:
https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...e-first-edition-mach-e-orders.1274/post-30280
and it was answered by the next day, including in:
https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...e-first-edition-mach-e-orders.1274/post-30336
Did you just not like the previous answer?

How about if this time you do the Google searches and let us know what YOU find?
Sorry, guess I was not clear. I think I know what has been posted here in the past by members. I was wondering if Ford itself has stated that all FEs will be built before any customer Premiums or Selects. I do not see that information in those links. Sorry that you are miffed at me. I actually searched through prior Forum posts to the best of my ability before posting my question and could not find a link to Ford providing that information so I asked the question.

I suppose most FEs have early reservation dates/times since FE reservations were shut down so early. Even if Ford builds purely in order of reservation date rather than build all FEs first, then most FEs will be built before most Premiums. FE reservations were still available when I made my Premium reservation. That means that some FEs have a reservation date/time stamp later than my Premium date/time stamp. I was simply trying to sort out if Ford had given an official statement on precedence.

I will avoid asking questions at the forum in the future so that I do not offend you again. Your work is appreciated and you seem likely the most knowledgeable person on the forum. Sorry that my question, which I thought was legitimate, offended you.
 

kdryden99

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First Mach E will arive Nov.18 to a member thats my guess @trutolife27
 
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AndyS_OSU

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I’ll post this here too:

Okay gurus @trutolife27 and @ChasingCoral do I keep ignoring my dealer when they call and tell me my 96xx reservation Premium will start down the line in December and be available by February?
 

ChasingCoral

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I’ll post this here too:

Okay gurus @trutolife27 and @ChasingCoral do I keep ignoring my dealer when they call and tell me my 96xx reservation Premium will start down the line in December and be available by February?
Yes.

My pessimistic estimate at https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-32338 guesses 3,200 North American Premiums produced before the EU/UK production run starts.

I related that to reservation date/numbers as:
We can assume 35% GTs, 15% FEs, so reservation holders up to 10,400 to perhaps 20,000 get cars in 2020 depending mostly on the ratio of NA to EU/UK cars in that first week of reservations. That means reservations made between the reveal on 11/17 and 11/19 will likely get their cars in 2020, maybe even those who reserved up until about 11/25.

That also assumed 60/40 EU/NA split.

So I see at least cars through 10,xxx coming by near the first of the year.
 

AndyS_OSU

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Yes.

My pessimistic estimate at https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-32338 guesses 3,200 North American Premiums produced before the EU/UK production run starts.

I related that to reservation date/numbers as:
We can assume 35% GTs, 15% FEs, so reservation holders up to 10,400 to perhaps 20,000 get cars in 2020 depending mostly on the ratio of NA to EU/UK cars in that first week of reservations. That means reservations made between the reveal on 11/17 and 11/19 will likely get their cars in 2020, maybe even those who reserved up until about 11/25.

That also assumed 60/40 EU/NA split.

So I see at least cars through 10,xxx coming by near the first of the year.
Thanks for the reply. I guess what I haven’t been able to parse throughout the thousands of posts on this subject, will we all know our build date later this month? I ask because my BoltEV lease is up next month. I’m counting on this car before the end of 2020 and if it can’t get here before January 1, 2021 I’ll need to go a different direction. My Ford dealership originally said they would work with me on a loaner until the car arrived but that was pre-pandemic set backs.
 

ChasingCoral

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Thanks for the reply. I guess what I haven’t been able to parse throughout the thousands of posts on this subject, will we all know our build date later this month? I ask because my BoltEV lease is up next month. I’m counting on this car before the end of 2020 and if it can’t get here before January 1, 2021 I’ll need to go a different direction. My Ford dealership originally said they would work with me on a loaner until the car arrived but that was pre-pandemic set backs.
We hope to have VINs and target dates by mid-October for FEs, not long after for early reservations of other trims. No official word on that, though.

I'll bet your dealer will still work with you. This would be a good time to reach back out to them.
 

Jimrpa

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I know we’ve been told that they have to intermingle trim levels to keep the line running at a steady pace, so there will be some FEs, Premiums, CA Rte 1s, and I guess a few Selects produced at the same time.
Do they intermingle different MARKETS at the same time? For example, will they run an EU car, then an NA car, then a UK car?
 



 









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