Best Guess on When Premium Trims Will Start Arriving

ARK

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Anyone have an educated guess on when premium models will start arriving at dealer lots? Maybe someone who followed Tesla launches in the past?

I suppose it depends a lot on how many FEs will get built, which we don’t know?

Basically trying to figure out the likelihood of getting my premium this year if the dealer submitted my order in late June - within a couple of days of order books opening up, but not on the first day.

if I get it this year, I can get the federal tax credit on 2020 taxes, but if I get it in January 2021 or later, I will at least get an extra year of HOV lane solo access in California based on how that program works.
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ChasingCoral

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Anyone have an educated guess on when premium models will start arriving at dealer lots? Maybe someone who followed Tesla launches in the past?

I suppose it depends a lot on how many FEs will get built, which we don’t know?

Basically trying to figure out the likelihood of getting my premium this year if the dealer submitted my order in late June - within a couple of days of order books opening up, but not on the first day.

if I get it this year, I can get the federal tax credit on 2020 taxes, but if I get it in January 2021 or later, I will at least get an extra year of HOV lane solo access in California based on how that program works.
Did you have a reservation or was it a direct order?
 

mamejunkie

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if I get it this year, I can get the federal tax credit on 2020 taxes, but if I get it in January 2021 or later, I will at least get an extra year of HOV lane solo access in California based on how that program works.
Side note. I believe the new rules for CA is either or...not both.
You can choose
  1. State tax credit
  2. HOV access
I personally will choose the state credit.
 

krafty81

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Side note. I believe the new rules for CA is either or...not both.
You can choose
  1. State tax credit
  2. HOV access
I personally will choose the state credit.
Depends on income. Some only have the choice of HOV access.
 

Kamuelaflyer

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This is not an educated guess at all, but given the machdrop, the apparent over subscription in orders, and the slow rate of production (which will ramp up though) I’d bet on very few actual premium deliveries this year. If you don’t have an extremely low reservation number, odds are almost nonexistent.
 


EyeOnMachE

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Anyone have an educated guess on when premium models will start arriving at dealer lots? Maybe someone who followed Tesla launches in the past?
FWIW, at the end of July I asked my local Ford dealer that I specified on my reservation when is the earliest they would have a demo for me to check out and test drive. They estimated early December. I suspect which and when a dealer will receive a demo, if at all, will vary (possibly based on how many reservation/order holders chose or live near a given dealer?). From that I surmised it's also the earliest they will receive any ordered MMEs. So I highly doubt the MME will be available in 2020, at least at my dealer / area. Even with a low res number, which I have, I'm keeping things simple and just expecting it to be 2021.
 

jlauro

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I'm not even sure where dealer test drive units are in the queue compared to customer orders. That said, I am guessing last week in November the premium trims will start to arrive, and this is assuming dealer test drive units will come later. I am also guessing that if you reserved last year or Q1 this year, and your order is already in, that you will be able to pick it up this year.
 

hybrid2bev

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I'm thinking early December for the first deliveries in N.A.

Production maybe slow now in the pre-production phase but they have time to ramp up the speed while making the demos from the end of September to the end of October. Production starts with FE customer units at the end of October. Assuming they are near full speed around that time then it should take a couple weeks to make the ~3,000 FE units. That leaves a couple weeks of production for Premium, CA Rt1 and Selects before the OKTB date (shipping date of all the YTD production thus far including demos) which is in the last full week of November. So if shipping takes two weeks after the OKTB date would mean around December 8th we should start seeing FE, Premium, CA Rt1 and Selects and dealer demos hitting the dealer lots.
 
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ARK

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Did you have a reservation or was it a direct order?
Not sure what exactly you mean by a direct order. On the Ford website, it says the Place Order phase is complete and that “Order Sent to Dealer” and “Order Accepted” are complete. My order number is 10013010. But I have received only one email from Ford that starts off with “It’s Yours”, when the order was finalized on June 30.
 
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ARK

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Side note. I believe the new rules for CA is either or...not both.
You can choose
  1. State tax credit
  2. HOV access
I personally will choose the state credit.
Thanks for mentioning that, I had completely forgotten, I would take the state tax credit, don’t drive enough on freeways with carpool lanes. Then I really hope I have it before Christmas...Merry Christmas to me!
 

ChasingCoral

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Not sure what exactly you mean by a direct order. On the Ford website, it says the Place Order phase is complete and that “Order Sent to Dealer” and “Order Accepted” are complete. My order number is 10013010. But I have received only one email from Ford that starts off with “It’s Yours”, when the order was finalized on June 30.
Did you make a reservation that you converted to an order (sometime between last November and late June) or did you start with placing an order on the website. If you had a reservation, what was the date of the reservation &/or reservation number (not direct order number).
 
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ARK

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Did you make a reservation that you converted to an order (sometime between last November and late June) or did you start with placing an order on the website. If you had a reservation, what was the date of the reservation &/or reservation number (not direct order number).
Yes to the first alternative. Made the reservation November 18, 2019 and converted to an order on June 30, 2020. Looks like my reservation ID was the same as my order ID -10013010.
 

ChasingCoral

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I'm thinking early December for the first deliveries in N.A.

Production maybe slow now in the pre-production phase but they have time to ramp up the speed while making the demos from the end of September to the end of October. Production starts with FE customer units at the end of October. Assuming they are near full speed around that time then it should take a couple weeks to make the ~3,000 FE units. That leaves a couple weeks of production for Premium, CA Rt1 and Selects before the OKTB date (shipping date of all the YTD production thus far including demos) which is in the last full week of November. So if shipping takes two weeks after the OKTB date would mean around December 8th we should start seeing FE, Premium, CA Rt1 and Selects and dealer demos hitting the dealer lots.
Agreed. Since yours was a Nov. 18th reservation, @ARK, it should be among the first Premium deliveries, probably a couple of weeks after the First Editions.
 

Kamuelaflyer

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Agreed. Since yours was a Nov. 18th reservation, @ARK, it should be among the first Premium deliveries, probably a couple of weeks after the First Editions.
With an order number that low, I'd expect there to be a good chance of an MME this year. If the target is 10,000 before the Christmas/New Year's break yours would fall within that with a 13K order/rez number. Worst case scenario? A very early 2021 delivery, but honestly I'd agree with @ChasingCoral and think you'll see it this year.
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