Despite Musk claims, Tesla will not be at L5 by end of year

[jhalkias]

Autos & TransportationTesla tells regulator that full self-driving cars may not be achieved by year-end

Hyunjoo Jin

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2 minute read

A Tesla Model X electric car is seen at the Brussels Motor Show, Belgium, January 9, 2020. REUTERS/Francois Lenoir/File Photo
Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) told a California regulator that it may not achieve full self-driving technology by the end of this year, a memo by the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) showed.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said during an earnings conference call in January that he was "highly confident the car will be able to drive itself with reliability in excess of human this year."
Tesla has also rolled out what it describes as a "beta" version of its "full self-driving" (FSD) program to a limited number of employees and customers since October, and Musk has touted the capability on Twitter.
"Elon's tweet does not match engineering reality per CJ. Tesla is at Level 2 currently," the California DMV said in a memo about its March 9 conference call with Tesla representatives, including autopilot engineer CJ Moore. Level 2 technology refers to a semi-automated driving system, which requires supervision by a human driver.
The memo was released by legal transparency group PlainSite, which obtained it under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).
"Tesla indicated that Elon is extrapolating on the rates of improvement when speaking about L5 capabilities. Tesla couldn’t say if the rate of improvement would make it to L5 by end of calendar year," the memo said, referring to level 5 full autonomous technology.
The California DMV, Tesla and Moore were not immediately available for comment.
"Tesla indicated that they are still firmly in L2," California DMV said in the memo. "As Tesla is aware, the public’s misunderstanding about the limits of the technology and its misuse can have tragic consequences."
The California Highway Patrol is investigating why a Tesla vehicle crashed into an overturned truck on a highway near Fontana, California, on Wednesday, killing the Tesla’s driver. The patrol did not say whether the Tesla was operating on Autopilot or not.
Federal highway safety regulators are investigating more than 20 accidents involving Tesla vehicles.

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[bswilson989]

I've been banging this drum elsewhere for a while, but people grossly underestimate the challenges of fully autonomous driving. It's the sort of problem where the first 95% is easily surmountable, but the last 5% is super duper difficult. Unfortunately you need the full 100% for this to be feasible in the real world.

Perhaps it will be possible in the near future in a controlled environment. For instance on specific, pre-mapped roadways (interstate highways, etc). But being able to take a car and put it down on any paved road and have it make decisions in a way that can fully and safely replace a human driver is still years away, if not entirely impossible given the current road network.

 

[ChasingCoral]

I think the odds of Tesla being in court by the end of the year over false automation claims or contributing to the death of their car owners is far more likely than L5 automation.

 

[timbop]

What still mystifies me is how fully automated driving became the mission of Tesla. 15 years ago Musk was on a mission to save humanity from itself by making fully electric vehicles powered by green power sources ubiquitous; selling those cars and the solar panels to go with it made a lot of sense and was a noble goal. Somewhere along the line Musk fell in love with the idea of being able to take a nap while driving down the highway, and now Tesla wastes a huge amount of R&D on that rather specious goal rather than furthering the original mission.

In the end that shift is going to take Tesla down. The latest numbers for BEV sales in Europe and the escalating stance of regulatory agencies placing liability on Tesla seems like a clear omen to me.

 

[mburtsvt]

Of course my heart goes out to all of the people who had paid up to ten thousand additional dollars to get FSD several years ago. The lease is coming up and their value in FSD was never realized. I don’t think Tesla can ever live that down.

 

[Davedough]

Of course my heart goes out to all of the people who had paid up to ten thousand additional dollars to get FSD several years ago. The lease is coming up and their value in FSD was never realized. I don’t think Tesla can ever live that down.

This is what I can't understand. How are Tesla owners not completely up in arms about this? He literally charged them for tech he can't deliver

 

[Njia]

What still mystifies me is how fully automated driving became the mission of Tesla. 15 years ago Musk was on a mission to save humanity from itself by making fully electric vehicles powered by green power sources ubiquitous; selling those cars and the solar panels to go with it made a lot of sense and was a noble goal. Somewhere along the line Musk fell in love with the idea of being able to take a nap while driving down the highway, and now Tesla wastes a huge amount of R&D on that rather specious goal rather than furthering the original mission.

In the end that shift is going to take Tesla down. The latest numbers for BEV sales in Europe and the escalating stance of regulatory agencies placing liability on Tesla seems like a clear omen to me.

People much smarter than I am have been on Tesla's death watch for a long time, and the company continues to do well. It is the Apple of the automotive industry because fanbois, firmly ensconced in their tribal garb, eagerly dismiss any and all criticisms of Elon Musk & Co. even when it would benefit them to heed the warnings.

 

[timbop]

I don’t think Tesla can ever live that down.

Sure they can, because no one holds them to it

This is what I can't understand. How are Tesla owners not completely up in arms about this? He literally charged them for tech he can't deliver

Because the fan base is loyal and ignores the obvious lies and character flaws of the cult leader

 

[timbop]

People much smarter than I am have been on Tesla's death watch for a long time, and the company continues to do well. It is the Apple of the automotive industry because fanbois, firmly ensconced in their tribal garb, eagerly dismiss any and all criticisms of Elon Musk & Co. even when it would benefit them to heed the warnings.

Yes, but that has only gotten them 2% of the overall auto market. The latest BEV sales numbers from the EU are an obvious bellwether as to who will dominate the BEV market in the next 10 to 15 years. The BEV market would certainly not exist without Tesla, but creating a fledgeling market and dominating a mature one are very different things. Anybody still buy "crackberry" phones?

 

[theo1000]

What still mystifies me is how fully automated driving became the mission of Tesla.

Hah! I was there when Mr Musk ego decided to take this on as well. And he decided to do this with the 6 cameras and some primitive sensors. The year was 2012 or 2013 and it looked like a bunch of self driving tech was going to hit the streets. 2013 was declared the year of the autonomous car look it up. Google's self driving cars were all the rage. That little bubble buggy. Its not an accident so many of the TSLA models today look like that google bubble buggy.

The Musk ego would have none of it, one day he woke up and said he can make his cars self drive. Not only that he could make existing TSLA cars self drive. And he would do it without LIDAR. Back then LIDAR was this super expensive $50,000 and 500 lb chunk of metal stuck on top of a car. What Mr Musk, that self described futurist, did not foresee is that LIDAR would become a $25 item the size of a matchbook.

So now here he sits with primitive sensors and bad technology locked into a decision he made on a whim back in 2012. As long as the TSLA crowd is willing to fork over $10,000 for it I guess TSLA stock will keep going up. What happens when it never arrives at L5. Who knows. In the mean time the company goes on a wild goose chase squandering investor money with little to show for it. Sign of the times I guess.

 

[Crow979]

What still mystifies me is how fully automated driving became the mission of Tesla. 15 years ago Musk was on a mission to save humanity from itself by making fully electric vehicles powered by green power sources ubiquitous; selling those cars and the solar panels to go with it made a lot of sense and was a noble goal. Somewhere along the line Musk fell in love with the idea of being able to take a nap while driving down the highway, and now Tesla wastes a huge amount of R&D on that rather specious goal rather than furthering the original mission.

In the end that shift is going to take Tesla down. The latest numbers for BEV sales in Europe and the escalating stance of regulatory agencies placing liability on Tesla seems like a clear omen to me.

It's because Elon knows that on a pure car-building level Tesla is at a slight disadvantage once the traditional automakers establish their electric vehicle platforms and the supply chain behind it. The two ways Tesla is trying to differentiate itself from the rest of the automakers is by driving the battery/propulsion development itself and by developing a software package (FSD/Autopilot) that is unique and that may prove difficult for other automakers to match. Without those two advantages, Tesla will not be able to thrive in an uber-competitive auto market. Don't get me wrong, I'm not discounting Tesla as a company or their product, but Tesla's success depends on doing what other automakers cannot do.

 

[Njia]

Yes, but that has only gotten them 2% of the overall auto market. The latest BEV sales numbers from the EU are an obvious bellwether as to who will dominate the BEV market in the next 10 to 15 years. The BEV market would certainly not exist without Tesla, but creating a fledgeling market and dominating a mature one are very different things. Anybody still buy "crackberry" phones?

I've read "Crossing the Chasm," so I fully appreciate the differences between Visionaries, Early Adopters, and the Early Majority, etc. We're probably not even into the Early Majority yet for the EV market, so there is plenty of time left for Elon to show the world what happens when a CEO promises too much (disingenuously) and delivers too little.

 

[timbop]

It's because Elon knows that on a pure car-building level Tesla is at a slight disadvantage once the traditional automakers establish their electric vehicle platforms and the supply chain behind it. The two ways Tesla is trying to differentiate itself from the rest of the automakers is by driving the battery/propulsion development itself and by developing a software package (FSD/Autopilot) that is unique and that may prove difficult for other automakers to match. Without those two advantages, Tesla will not be able to thrive in an uber-competitive auto market. Don't get me wrong, I'm not discounting Tesla as a company or their product, but Tesla's success depends on doing what other automakers cannot do.

OK, but in fact Ford and the rest of the OEMs ARE pouring money into specialized companies whose only focus is AV's. In the meantime Tesla are no further ahead in nextgen battery technology (the 4620 is an incremental improvement), and they already lose money selling cars - their profit comes from carbon credits that are going to go away.

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