Despite Musk claims, Tesla will not be at L5 by end of year

mburtsvt

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Oh.. you mean like crowd sourcing. So Tesla has to crown source for software development.....got it.
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timbop

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People much smarter than I am have been on Tesla's death watch for a long time, and the company continues to do well. It is the Apple of the automotive industry because fanbois, firmly ensconced in their tribal garb, eagerly dismiss any and all criticisms of Elon Musk & Co. even when it would benefit them to heed the warnings.
Actually, Apple is an apt example of a small company with a groundbreaking product that thrived for a while and then started to feel the crushing weight of much bigger competitors. Back in the early 80's apple and several other small to medium sized companies were making "home computers", when giant IBM decided to come out with the first IBM PC's. Apple's proprietary ecosystem was losing market share to not only IBM, but other companies that made clones of the PC as well as many accessories. Then their "visionary" CEO stumbled into the Xerox research facility at Palo Alto, and saw this thing called a "graphical user interface" complete with something called a "mouse". Steve Jobs recognized the potential immediately, and knew it was the opportunity of a lifetime to rip off the design and concept because Xerox management (a copier company) had no idea what they had nor the interest in pursuing a "toy", so they never even considered filing patents or protecting what they had. The engineers at Xerox knew what they had, so tried to drum up interest in the thing by inviting people like Steve Jobs to see it, fully explaining how it worked and why they designed things the way they did. Had Apple not ripped off that IP, they would have died the same slow death under the boot of the PC as Tandy, Commodore, Timex-Sinclair, and all the rest. Even with ripping off Xerox, Apple just about ran aground just a decade later - being rescued by the evil Bill Gates and Microsoft. Fortunately for them their CEO had another "vision" or 2 that he ripped off of someone else*, and now they're the behemoth. Meanwhile Xerox has managed to barely stay in business, and Kodak (the inventor of the digital camera) is also gone. The moral of the story is that invention isn't good enough: you have to be able to scale up and capitalize on your lead or you will be consumed by those that copy and improve upon your formula.

* there were other mp3 players on the market before the iPod, the iPhone was an improvement on the blackberry, and of course we all saw small tablets computers on "Star Trek: the next generation".
 

timbop

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Actually, Apple is an apt example of a small company with a groundbreaking product that thrived for a while and then started to feel the crushing weight of much bigger competitors. Back in the early 80's apple and several other small to medium sized companies were making "home computers", when giant IBM decided to come out with the first IBM PC's. Apple's proprietary ecosystem was losing market share to not only IBM, but other companies that made clones of the PC as well as many accessories. Then their "visionary" CEO stumbled into the Xerox research facility at Palo Alto, and saw this thing called a "graphical user interface" complete with something called a "mouse". Steve Jobs recognized the potential immediately, and knew it was the opportunity of a lifetime to rip off the design and concept because Xerox management (a copier company) had no idea what they had nor the interest in pursuing a "toy", so they never even considered filing patents or protecting what they had. The engineers at Xerox knew what they had, so tried to drum up interest in the thing by inviting people like Steve Jobs to see it, fully explaining how it worked and why they designed things the way they did. Had Apple not ripped off that IP, they would have died the same slow death under the boot of the PC as Tandy, Commodore, Timex-Sinclair, and all the rest. Even with ripping off Xerox, Apple just about ran aground just a decade later - being rescued by the evil Bill Gates and Microsoft. Fortunately for them their CEO had another "vision" or 2 that he ripped off of someone else*, and now they're the behemoth. Meanwhile Xerox has managed to barely stay in business, and Kodak (the inventor of the digital camera) is also gone. The moral of the story is that invention isn't good enough: you have to be able to scale up and capitalize on your lead or you will be consumed by those that copy and improve upon your formula.

* there were other mp3 players on the market before the iPod, the iPhone was an improvement on the blackberry, and of course we all saw small tablets computers on "Star Trek: the next generation".
Actually, I should also mention that IBM couldn't compete either. By the late 80's the "PC clones" as they were called, far outsold IBM's own computers. One reason was that IBM contracted a nonexclusive deal for the OS and used off the shelf hardware. IBM tried to fight back with the PS/2 by making a proprietary connector and their own GUI. Naturally they let Microsoft keep the nonexclusive contract for the OS, because "what harm could that do". Fast forward to today, and IBM doesn't make PC's anymore and that sweetheart deal with Microsoft was a huge missed opportunity.
 

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Certainly Tesla isn't a carbon copy of Apple, but the Tesla formula is similar to Apple's up to just before the point where the narcissist CEO started believing his own hype and aura of infallibility and got fired:
  • Both saw floundering cottage industries and created a complete ecosystem unlike anything anyone else had - including a product that was slick and packaged in a way that made people want it
  • Both were run by a very smart and cunning individual that had a vision and the drive to make it happen - including crushing devoted employees who gave their all but made the mistake of questioning said "visionary"
  • Both have closed ecosystems which makes it far easier to integrate new features and functionality
  • Both have devoted fans who love the story of the visionary on a quest to make the world better - so much so that they ignore the reality
  • Both started out making best-in-class products that were far better and "cooler" than anything else available
 

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Actually, Apple is an apt example of a small company with a groundbreaking product that thrived for a while and then started to feel the crushing weight of much bigger competitors. Back in the early 80's apple and several other small to medium sized companies were making "home computers", when giant IBM decided to come out with the first IBM PC's. Apple's proprietary ecosystem was losing market share to not only IBM, but other companies that made clones of the PC as well as many accessories. Then their "visionary" CEO stumbled into the Xerox research facility at Palo Alto, and saw this thing called a "graphical user interface" complete with something called a "mouse". Steve Jobs recognized the potential immediately, and knew it was the opportunity of a lifetime to rip off the design and concept because Xerox management (a copier company) had no idea what they had nor the interest in pursuing a "toy", so they never even considered filing patents or protecting what they had. The engineers at Xerox knew what they had, so tried to drum up interest in the thing by inviting people like Steve Jobs to see it, fully explaining how it worked and why they designed things the way they did. Had Apple not ripped off that IP, they would have died the same slow death under the boot of the PC as Tandy, Commodore, Timex-Sinclair, and all the rest. Even with ripping off Xerox, Apple just about ran aground just a decade later - being rescued by the evil Bill Gates and Microsoft. Fortunately for them their CEO had another "vision" or 2 that he ripped off of someone else*, and now they're the behemoth. Meanwhile Xerox has managed to barely stay in business, and Kodak (the inventor of the digital camera) is also gone. The moral of the story is that invention isn't good enough: you have to be able to scale up and capitalize on your lead or you will be consumed by those that copy and improve upon your formula.

* there were other mp3 players on the market before the iPod, the iPhone was an improvement on the blackberry, and of course we all saw small tablets computers on "Star Trek: the next generation".
I am old enough to remember all of that - I had an Apple IIe in high school, and a MacPlus starting in my first year as a college student. I even lived through the John Scully days when Steve Jobs was forced out.

Will any of that happen with Tesla? Hard to say. Elon still has controlling interest in the company. Tesla's not a "one-trick pony" (EVs) as it is interested in more broad applications of its technology, such as the PowerWall, Roof, etc. At some point, even its battery tech will become obsolete as more companies invest in R&D. His "walled garden" strategy may catch up to him eventually, but it will take a few more years to get there, I think.
 


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jhalkias

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Certainly Tesla isn't a carbon copy of Apple, but the Tesla formula is similar to Apple's up to just before the point where the narcissist CEO started believing his own hype and aura of infallibility and got fired:
  • Both saw floundering cottage industries and created a complete ecosystem unlike anything anyone else had - including a product that was slick and packaged in a way that made people want it
  • Both were run by a very smart and cunning individual that had a vision and the drive to make it happen - including crushing devoted employees who gave their all but made the mistake of questioning said "visionary"
  • Both have closed ecosystems which makes it far easier to integrate new features and functionality
  • Both have devoted fans who love the story of the visionary on a quest to make the world better - so much so that they ignore the reality
  • Both started out making best-in-class products that were far better and "cooler" than anything else available
One caveat . . . Jobs got booted out of Apple.

But then he came back when they were struggling. Without that comeback, Apple would surely have died. He was a total A-hole of a human in most respects, but he was a visionary. Tim Cook is a much better human and has expanded the company to exponential success since Jobs died.
 

timbop

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Elon still has controlling interest in the company.
Of that I was not aware...

He was a total A-hole of a human in most respects, but he was a visionary. Tim Cook is a much better human and has expanded the company to exponential success since Jobs died.
Right, Apple did bring Jobs back out of desperation and probably wouldn't have survived. At the same time, Musk seems to be getting bored with making cars.

Also, unfortunately Apple hasn't really come out with anything new under Cook. I'm not sure he's going to be able to do more than oversee Apple's eventual decline.
 
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jhalkias

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Of that I was not aware...


Right, Apple did bring Jobs back out of desperation and probably wouldn't have survived. At the same time, Musk seems to be getting bored with making cars.

Also, unfortunately Apple hasn't really come out with anything new under Cook. I'm not sure he's going to be able to do more than oversee Apple's eventual decline.
Apple Watch
M1 chip (which is about to turn the 086 world on its head-Intel is very afraid)
Services that are killing it in revenue

i try hard not to just be an Apple Fanboy. I use Windows too, but the tight integration of my iPhone, Mac, and iPad really make my computing life so much easier.
 

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In 2018 the CEO stated a Model S would soon be driving it's self across the country. In 2021 emails between Tesla and the California DOT revealed Tesla does not have level 3 capabilities. FSD is a cash cow for the company. Their software is in capable of doing what they claim as soon.
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