Electric Highways

[B25Nut]

This is a good White Paper on what will be required for the 2035 mandates to work.

https://www.nationalgrid.com/document/148616/download

One conclusion:

6. The electric highway future is happening now. The timelines required for grid infrastructure upgrades, particularly transmission, are much longer than those required for EV supply equipment installation. While charger installation can be completed in a matter of months, larger transmission interconnections and upgrades can take as long as 8 years to construct. This study suggests that some locations will need upgrades before 2030. Preparation of those no-regrets sites should begin immediately.

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[kdonnel]

I have faith that the electrical transmission and generation can and will be upgraded.

Homes didn't have central AC. Then in a very short period after WWII, central AC became commonplace.

That was a huge new electrical demand that required more generation and transmission.

 

[AKgrampy]

This is a good White Paper on what will be required for the 2035 mandates to work.

https://www.nationalgrid.com/document/148616/download

One conclusion:

6. The electric highway future is happening now. The timelines required for grid infrastructure upgrades, particularly transmission, are much longer than those required for EV supply equipment installation. While charger installation can be completed in a matter of months, larger transmission interconnections and upgrades can take as long as 8 years to construct. This study suggests that some locations will need upgrades before 2030. Preparation of those no-regrets sites should begin immediately.

Unfortunately upgrades to electric transmission facilities can take even more than 8 years. They are also very costly and, unlike the chargers, there is no government subsidy. So the utilities must justify them with real projected growth and the facility costs are rolled into the rate base. It will be interesting to see how multi- million to billion dollar costs are handled by regulatory agencies as the general rule in ratemaking is cost-causer cost-payer. I agree with your thoughts on what may need to be done but I know it will not be as simple as increasing the number of chargers. That being said there are other options that can take place in the meantime to manage load growth.

 

[Blue highway]

I have faith that the electrical transmission and generation can and will be upgraded.

Homes didn't have central AC. Then in a very short period after WWII, central AC became commonplace.

That was a huge new electrical demand that required more generation and transmission.

Yes, and lots of us have some flexibility time wise in terms of when we charge at home which can forestall some upgrades. Utilities are becoming pretty good at peak shaving.

I'm sure there will be issues, but building out the electric infrastructure is not as dire as it's made out to be.... in most places.

 

[Mach1E]

Yes, and lots of us have some flexibility time wise in terms of when we charge at home which can forestall some upgrades. Utilities are becoming pretty good at peak shaving.

I'm sure there will be issues, but building out the electric infrastructure is not as dire as it's made out to be.... in most places.

And in some places it’s already a problem now!

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/us/california-heat-wave-flex-alert-ac-ev-charging.html

Maybe that’s the plan though. Make things so bad that people will keep leaving the state, then no more infrastructure problem!

https://amp.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article260980852.html

 

[phil]

 

[devmach-e]

And in some places it’s already a problem now!

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/us/california-heat-wave-flex-alert-ac-ev-charging.html

Maybe that’s the plan though. Make things so bad that people will keep leaving the state, then no more infrastructure problem!

https://amp.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article260980852.html

Texas asked EV owners to not charge during the day, too, so it is hardly a California problem. And to be fair, both California and Texas asked everybody to conserve electricity, not just EV owners. Every time there is a heat wave, these sorts of appeals to conserve electricity happen. Texas had to do it twice this year. EV charging isn't the problem. It is the wide pervasive use of Air Conditioning. And Californians and Texans weren't asked to stop plugging in their cars. They were just asked to not charge at peak times. The majority of owners charge at home overnight, well outside the peak demand period.

 

[AKgrampy]

Texas asked EV owners to not charge during the day, too, so it is hardly a California problem. And to be fair, both California and Texas asked everybody to conserve electricity, not just EV owners. Every time there is a heat wave, these sorts of appeals to conserve electricity happen. Texas had to do it twice this year. EV charging isn't the problem. It is the wide pervasive use of Air Conditioning. And Californians and Texans weren't asked to stop plugging in their cars. They were just asked to not charge at peak times. The majority of owners charge at home overnight, well outside the peak demand period.

Exactly! Another thing that could be done; although, it would irritate many is to limit DCFC loads during peak hours. Utilities could use software to notify chargers to be limited to 50% max (for example) when generation or transmission is an issue.

 

[Blue highway]

And in some places it’s already a problem now!

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/us/california-heat-wave-flex-alert-ac-ev-charging.html

Maybe that’s the plan though. Make things so bad that people will keep leaving the state, then no more infrastructure problem!

https://amp.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article260980852.html

yeah... the AC vs EV battle royale will happen in Cali, Texas, and a few other places that summer peak. I expect that the same strategies that load shed peaks for AC will likely be applied to EVs... so hopefully manageable.

Surprisingly with the growth in solar, mid day is not so much of a problem in Cali. ... its the hours after work and before the AC demand slows.

Also surprising (to me anyway), Florida is winter peaking (in terms of max strain on the grid) as so many people use electric heat there.

I'm still more than optimistic this can be managed.

 

[Motomax]

This is a good White Paper on what will be required for the 2035 mandates to work.

https://www.nationalgrid.com/document/148616/download

One conclusion:

6. The electric highway future is happening now. The timelines required for grid infrastructure upgrades, particularly transmission, are much longer than those required for EV supply equipment installation. While charger installation can be completed in a matter of months, larger transmission interconnections and upgrades can take as long as 8 years to construct. This study suggests that some locations will need upgrades before 2030. Preparation of those no-regrets sites should begin immediately.

While it’s definitely theoretically possible, regulations can make it quite expensive and tricky.
California is the poster child for putting the cart ahead of the horse. They would love nothing more than to shut down all gas power plants and pay triple to import electricity from out of state. Many gas power plants have been intentionally over regulated and permits needed to comply with new regulations blocked to the point of shutting down. There’s no way to build a gas or nuclear power plant in California right now. They’re also doing the same thing to refineries in the state.
Solar farms can only go so far. In the summer we all know the strain that ACs put on our grid. Now counties are starting to mandate natural gas free buildings/homes, electric heaters are gonna cause the same issue.

if they approached this logically and set small achievable goals in an order that makes sense it would definitely be possible. Unfortunately politics don’t work that way in the US lol.

 

[phil]

Exactly! Another thing that could be done; although, it would irritate many is to limit DCFC loads during peak hours. Utilities could use software to notify chargers to be limited to 50% max (for example) when generation or transmission is an issue.

 

[AKgrampy]

Not quite rationing but you have to wait in line to get your full meal and dinner may be later than normal.

 

[timbop]

Exactly! Another thing that could be done; although, it would irritate many is to limit DCFC loads during peak hours. Utilities could use software to notify chargers to be limited to 50% max (for example) when generation or transmission is an issue.

yeah... the AC vs EV battle royale will happen in Cali, Texas, and a few other places that summer peak. I expect that the same strategies that load shed peaks for AC will likely be applied to EVs... so hopefully manageable.

Surprisingly with the growth in solar, mid day is not so much of a problem in Cali. ... its the hours after work and before the AC demand slows.

Also surprising (to me anyway), Florida is winter peaking (in terms of max strain on the grid) as so many people use electric heat there.

I'm still more than optimistic this can be managed.

The difference between air conditioning and home charging: everyone's AC is on at the same time because everyone is hot at the same time. Peak generating capacity is designed to handle that max load, but of course cannot meet every peak due to population growth and hotter peak temps. Not everyone has to charge at the same time, so it is not just theoretical but absolutely possible for EV's to charge at either different times or lower current draws. It doesn't have to be regulated: California is already beginning to offer cheaper offpeak rates to encourage exactly this behavior. Smart EVSE's are also part of that equation, although assurances and mechanisms have to be in place so commuters can be guaranteed to get a minimum power draw overnight. It is perfectly do-able, but ultimately widespread personal solar with storage meets the need perfectly. Unfortunately that won't happen because there is too much money at stake.

And yes, all jurisdictions need to get off of fossil fuel power plants. It will not be a smooth transition, but keeping the status quo is not sustainable long term and is a recipe for a far bumpier ride.

 

[dtbaker61]

Unfortunately upgrades to electric transmission facilities can take even more than 8 years. They are also very costly and, unlike the chargers, there is no government subsidy. So the utilities must justify them with real projected growth and the facility costs are rolled into the rate base. It will be interesting to see how multi- million to billion dollar costs are handled by regulatory agencies as the general rule in ratemaking is cost-causer cost-payer. I agree with your thoughts on what may need to be done but I know it will not be as simple as increasing the number of chargers. That being said there are other options that can take place in the meantime to manage load growth.

big problem facing small utilities and suburban/rural areas for charging infrastructure is both the lack of 3-phase power, backlog and cost of obtaining/installing dedicated 500kva transformers, and load management.... having 150kw-600kw come on and off the line is difficult to manage for rural lines that don't have a whole lot of capacity.

Their rate structures have been developed to cover the costs by billing 'demand charges' based on peak loads, PLUS 'energy charges' for what is actually consumed. If a one-handle charge station is installed with max charge rate of 150kw, the demand charge of $25/kw (average from what I've seen) means the bill for the charge station is $3750 per month before you even sell one charge. Energy charges at commercial rates are probaably around $.06 off peak, but jump up closer to $0.20/kwhr during peak in most areas I've looked at, plus $50/mo service charge.

in a rural area, lets say you sell an average of one 50kwhr charge per day and $.40/kwhr. your gross revenue would be around $600/mo.... if you can adjust rate on the fly to charge more during peak. Then you have to take some percentage out for O&M, and billing admininstration/networking

you cost to operate this scenerio under typical commercial rate classes with demand charges would be $3750 + $90 + $50 = $3890

..... so, clearly a losing proposition unless you can increase the charges per day to more than 8 x 50kwhr or lower/eliminate/change the demand charge which many small utilities simply can't figure out how to absorb unless they pass the infrastructure costs on to the owner/operator of the charge stations... which makes the initial cost high, and again makes the project unprofitable.

THESE are the challanges with 'rural' DCFC

 

[dtbaker61]

Exactly! Another thing that could be done; although, it would irritate many is to limit DCFC loads during peak hours. Utilities could use software to notify chargers to be limited to 50% max (for example) when generation or transmission is an issue.

What is coming is probably 'adjustable rates' charged at the pump.... Probably +$0.20/kWhr during peak times.... Drivers would quickly figure out that they would only charge EVs during off-peak times unless it was an 'emergency'. The DCFC chargers have software embedded now that can change the rate during the day to match peak/off-peak rates.

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