Farley believes he knows how to beat the Chinese on EVs

[Snakebitten]

I admit that a $20k EV would sell well, relatively speaking, because there just aren't $20k new cars of any kind now.

But I personally believe they are myth.
They'd have to be built in a quantity that outweighs the demand.

Disclaimer: I realize that statements like this sound different depending on what part of the US you might be in. California has a very different EV appetite and automotive culture than....... Well, the rest of the country.

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[dbsb3233]

Let's come back to this topic in 2026 when BEVs reach cost parity with ICE and 2027 when BEVs are cheaper to produce than ICE.

Battery prices are on a 1-way trajectory: down. And every new generation is able to squeeze in a bit more energy density in terms of kwh/kg.

What will be interesting is if every other industrialized country can benefit from this, but we can't, because... ya know...

The timing is all guesswork at this point, but I'd say closer to 2028/29 than 2026/27 for price parity. But of course that's not a solid line either. If you're talking the size of a Leaf with 200 mile range, it may already be close to parity. But if you're talking the size of a Suburban with 400 mile range, it's nowhere close. And may never get there in the next 10 years.

Small vehicles can be made BEV a lot more economically than large vehicles. That's where the US will likely always stay behind Asia and Europe on BEV adoption, because consumers here favor larger vehicles.

That's exactly Farley's point, and Ford's (latest) pivot. Ford always seems to be running 3 years behind on figuring out this whole EV-hybrid-ICE balance strategy. They'll probably be able to make small BEVs at a competitive price. But F-150s and SUVs (i.e. the meat of the US market) will remain too expensive in BEV form for probably many years to come. Thus the shift to more hybrids. I'm most anxious to see what they come up with for series hybrids (EREVs).

 

[Snakebitten]

You don't think that comment was a bit of hyperbole?

Those folks are employed by Ford, but are silo'd off for strategic reasons. It's not an unheard of tactic.
GM has done similar with the Corvette development for decades.

 

[dbsb3233]

You don't think that comment was a bit of hyperbole?

Those folks are employed by Ford, but are silo'd off for strategic reasons. It's not an unheard of tactic.
GM has done similar with the Corvette development for decades.

The "my badge doesn't even get me in there" is a tad over the top, but otherwise I'm fine with giving an R&D team free reign to see what they can come up with outside the box. Especially separate from the entrenched norms of the rest of the operations that want to protect their turf/jobs, and make it so difficult for a company like Ford to make drastic cost-cutting changes.

My skepticism is more over actually being able to do that. It's needed, yes. But getting it done is quite another thing in a company where the union has them by the balls, and with so many symbiotic supplier relationships in place. Those interests (protecting high headcounts, high labor costs, & expensive supply chains) are in direct conflict with the cost-elimination required to be successful with EVs.

It's great to try, but I have serious doubts they'll really be able to implement that "at one third the cost" dream.

 

[Snakebitten]

All good points.
But I think the 1/3rd cost was specific to the development costs up to the point they are now?

At least I that's the way my feeble brain heard it.

I doubt it will or can apply to material acquisition and manufacturing/assembly.

 

[kamorela]

Honestly, I'd love for them to bring back the Focus electric as a small, "cheap" EV, on a purpose-built platform of course. Or the Fusion as sedan EV. The Ioniq 6 is selling relatively well, I think, and I guess Hyundai thinks it's worthwhile to sell that in the US. Not sure why Ford is thinking "oh wow it's so hard to build a cheaper EV" when this seems patently obvious.

I drove a 2018 Fusion energi PHEV for 7 years and loved it...well, except for the reduced trunk size to accommodate the HVB. I always dreamed of an EV Fusion built on a platform designed for it, with front and rear cargo spaces. That would be my ideal car. I kept waiting for it until I couldn't wait any longer, I wanted to get an EV before tariffs kicked in. I finally traded my Fusion in on a MME, couldn't wait any longer.

 

[HuntingPudel]

<SNIP>
California has a very different EV appetite and automotive culture than....... Well, the rest of the country.

True, but my extended family is rather large (dad’s generation was 17 siblings, mom’s generation was 5) and while I have owned 1 PHEV and 2 BEVs, nobody else in my generation or below has a BEV (there are several PHEVs and hybrids).

 

[Dear_OP]

Tesla has been doing battle with the Chinese EV giants so they would know a thing or two on how to remain competitive.
Didn't Ford claimed they hired a bunch of ex-Tesla employees last year? Get them to work on SDV products. Incorporate mega-casting. Up the software dev prowess.

 

[SonicBlue]

I still have to come back to the Bolt(s). GM already built the small, affordable EV, yet GM gave up on it.

Please God, no more Bolts! Our public charging infrastructure is already swamped as it is.

 

[Exordium01]

Ford? innovate? Yeah okay - They cant even figure out an OTA process that many companies have figured out. Even after hiring ex-Apple and ex-Tesla folks who know how OTAs work lol

Have you owned any non-Fords? The Ford OTA process is one of the best in the industry. No, this isn’t a Ford complement. The bar is very low.

 

[dbsb3233]

Please God, no more Bolts! Our public charging infrastructure is already swamped as it is.

I think the new Bolt is supposed to have faster charging (150kw?).

 

[hbirring01]

Have you owned any non-Fords? The Ford OTA process is one of the best in the industry. No, this isn’t a Ford complement. The bar is very low.

I own a Tesla as well....I think thats the standard.

 

[SonicBlue]

I think the new Bolt is supposed to have faster charging (150kw?).

That would help. But I think it would be best if we keep EV pricing north of $50k. That would really cut the riffraff down.

 

[Exordium01]

I own a Tesla as well....I think thats the standard.

Well it’s not. Most cars sold are not Teslas.

 

[moog]

Call me a cynical.

I think the big domestic EV mfg. are "Day late, dollar short".

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