Federal administration proposes new rules for EV charging stations

[ab13]

But my point is that if VW stops making ICE vehicles, and people don't want to buy BEVs because they have finally figured out you cannot travel with them, VW will not be able to sustain their business. And that means they will go bankrupt. Or their business will shrink so much their entire BOD will be fired and all the executives will be living on the street. Might make a few leftists happy. ;-)

I am not saying they will tank tomorrow, but if they cannot sell cars, they don't have a business, right? Meanwhile, GM is still cranking out Escalades that burn one gallon of gas every 17 miles. And people are buying them because they can get gas and drive in comfort. I might be one of those people...

So VW and other car companies are significantly motivated to provide the means for people to use their products. They are not going to just let their products fail. They have lots of resources to invest into infrastructure, and if the government would just get out of the way, they will do it.

One other thing to consider is the battery improvements. If more vehicles approach longer range, say 400 miles, then charging structure won't be as critical for the newer vehicles. In fact, I think 3 of the Japanese companies have already noted dates for initial solid state battery testing/prototype limited release. Ford will be testing solid state prototype batteries later this year.

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[jlauro]

But my point is that if VW stops making ICE vehicles...

I am not saying they will tank tomorrow, but if they cannot sell cars, they don't have a business, right? Meanwhile, GM is still cranking out Escalades that burn one gallon of gas every 17 miles. And people are buying them because they can get gas and drive in comfort. I might be one of those people...

VW says they will stop making gas powered cars by 2035.
GM says they will stop making gas powered cars by 2035.

If they both stop at the same time, I don't think there will be that much difference...

Last year VW will launch a new product with a gas engine is 2026, so they are probably figuring 10 year model life.

 

[SaintPaulMustangMach-E_GT]

Making charging infrastructure like gas is helpful. Locations in big states like Texas could really use some improvement. But many big states don’t have gas stations every 50 miles. Been in WY lately? Recent stories have shown how much cheaper Tesla chargers are vs the competition. I’m happy using a Tesla charger if available. .

Did I miss something when did Tesla open it's network?
As of today 6/13/22 they've been talking about it for over a year.

 

[Maquis]

I disagree that would make them go bankrupt. Tesla has not needed ICE vehicles to turn a profit and burned through the tax rebate subsidies and is making a profit, and so there is no reason others can't.

For ~50% of the vehicles sold, it's not an issue. They are at a house with L2 charging, and perhaps shared with someone who has a ICE of PHEV as secondary vehicle. Now, a manufacturer going "BEV only" may be cutting their potential market in half without country wide infrastructure updates needed to well support that other 50%, but it does not mean they will go bankrupt on the smaller focused market.

Certainly they have motivation to build a better charging network so their vehicles are appealing to more than 50% and so they can have income on a recurring basis when people charge and not just the initial sale, but isn't strictly required to sell 100% BEV.

Tesla only turned a profit and survived because they were able to sell renewable energy credits to ICE automakers. So in reality, they did need ICE vehicles to turn a profit.

 

[Blue highway]

That's years away though. Even VW's "aggressive" timeline is still like 2030/2035 to go fully EV. And by then the US will likely be pretty well covered by DCFC already.

It's a sliding scale, of course. By 2025 there will be probably 15% market share of EVs being sold, and that's significant. But at the rate DCFC stations are filling in, a lot of the holes will be patched by then. EA alone will have pretty good coverage. 2025 is their target for this map. And that doesn't count all the other networks and states adding their own DCFC too. (Including Tesla Superchargers that will offer CCS by then.)

I think legacy automakers are looking at the landscape and the timelines and see there's just no good reason to spend a bunch investing in DCFC, because they see it happening anyway. Current drivers are frustrated that it's not all in place in 2022, of course, but the pace is well ahead of the EV sales market share for it, IMO. Most vehicle sales will remain ICE/hybrid for probably another decade as this gradually ramps up.

I'm with you up to the last statement that ICE will remain the majority for a decade. EV sales are doubling every year in Europe and the US. If that continues (which I assume it will) EVs will be more than 50% of new car sales in something like 5 years in America (2027). I'm betting 5. You are betting 10. Either way it's a matter of (a short) time.

 

[Regularmache]

Wow

 

[Blue highway]

One other thing to consider is the battery improvements. If more vehicles approach longer range, say 400 miles, then charging structure won't be as critical for the newer vehicles. In fact, I think 3 of the Japanese companies have already noted dates for initial solid state battery testing/prototype limited release. Ford will be testing solid state prototype batteries later this year.

there are dozens of battery plants being built all over the planet costing $Billions. In North America alone, the current committed investment is something like $13B . All of these plants are geared to make similar chemistry to what we use today. For this reason alone, 400 mile range is not going to happen any time soon for the masses. more chargers... yeah that is going to happen.

Annnnd we still have winters which means the 400 mile range becomes 2XX not 4XX.

More range = more better but I'll bet that average EV range will remain under 300 miles .

 

[dbsb3233]

there are dozens of battery plants being built all over the planet costing $Billions. In North America alone, the current committed investment is something like $13B . All of these plants are geared to make similar chemistry to what we use today. For this reason alone, 400 mile range is not going to happen any time soon for the masses. more chargers... yeah that is going to happen.

Annnnd we still have winters which means the 400 mile range becomes 2XX not 4XX.

More range = more better but I'll bet that average EV range will remain under 300 miles .

Yep. It takes a long time for these things to turn at large scale, like the battery manufacturing. Ford has more demand than they ever envisioned, and even with that, we're looking at 2025 for them to get their battery plants up and running.

If Solid Power wins the solid state battery race, that will help some since their technology is geared to working with existing battery form and manufacturing.

I do think we'll eventually level off around 400 EPA, but that's probably years away. Battery supply will remain the bottleneck for years, and now that EVs are becoming mainstream, I suspect manufacturers will want to use that battery supply to crank out more vehicles in the 300 range.

 

[Monty]

I live in indiana. The DCFC network is abysmal in Indiana and Michigan as well. Kind of strange since Ford has a strong manufacturing presence in the region. For example there are no fast chargers between Indianapolis and Lansing a 256 mile trip. Hopefully, this legislation passes and gets implemented quickly.

 

[jlauro]

I live in indiana. The DCFC network is abysmal in Indiana and Michigan as well. Kind of strange since Ford has a strong manufacturing presence in the region. For example there are no fast chargers between Indianapolis and Lansing a 256 mile trip. Hopefully, this legislation passes and gets implemented quickly.

I am seeing DCFC on that route. Not the fastest DCFC, but set your minimum to 50 instead of something like 150.

 

[Blue highway]

I live in indiana. The DCFC network is abysmal in Indiana and Michigan as well. Kind of strange since Ford has a strong manufacturing presence in the region. For example there are no fast chargers between Indianapolis and Lansing a 256 mile trip. Hopefully, this legislation passes and gets implemented quickly.

I'm originally from Michigan and return for visits most years so I'm interested in seeing how EV infrastructure is developing there. The DCFC situation is really poor for a state that gets cold winters and is the home of Ford and GM. The UP is essentially un-drivable for EVs in a practical sense. As you point out, Lansing south is an EV wasteland.

But don't lose hope, the State is investing in a one mile stretch of road that inductively charges cars as a demo... instead of building out DCFC

https://www.michigan.gov/whitmer/ne...tric-vehicle-charging-road-system-contract-aw

The moronathon that is my home state continues unabated.

 

[sep21978]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...-charging-stations-every-50-miles/7561566001/

These are rules for obtaining federal subsidies to build new charging stations. Here are some of the big takeaways.

1. Chargers must be at 1 mile, or less, from a highway
2. No closed networks. Tesla would have to create chargers for everyone to qualify.
3. No App requirements allowed. Chargers, built with subsidies, will operate more like a gas pump. You don’t need an app to pay and you don’t need a subscription.
4. At least 4 DC fast chargers per station.
5. Mandates chargers every 50 miles along highway

Why are we talking about anything other than point 1. 1 mile from the hwy. I’m 10 miles from a hey. Lol

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