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Ken7

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Grahame, I reserved a Premium LR RWD. I agree they always said Premiums would begin late 2020, but that doesn’t say when a Premium with a reservation # of 46,000 would arrive. We don’t know what Ford is anticipating as a weekly production number.
 

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A press bulletin issued by the Mexican government on Friday indicated that they are working closely with US and Canada to develop a plan for automotive manufacturing to restart. Although they indicated that health and safety are paramount, the bulletin also talks about the importance of the automotive industry to millions of Mexico's citizens. It concludes by stating that more information on reopening will be announced in the first part of this week.
That's great news. Would you please provide a link to that bulletin?
 

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Grahame, I reserved a Premium LR RWD. I agree they always said Premiums would begin late 2020, but that doesn’t say when a Premium with a reservation # of 46,000 would arrive. We don’t know what Ford is anticipating as a weekly production number.
My preorder for a ER RWD (Premium ish)is 414xx but I think within that number are First Edition, Selects and GTs. Reading between the lines there are a lot of reserved GTs so those and any Selects will be made last. First Edition will presumably be made first followed by the rest. If you believe the reports then the majority of the rest that have been reserved/preordered are ER so maybe they will be next. My only issue is where in the process do they make RHD versions. I hope and imagine that they can be slotted in anywhere just like any other production lines. In the end it all boils down to what their supply of battery modules is like. At the end of the day the only way of having a reasonable time line is when we get build dates and ETA to dealers.
 

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dbsb3233

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Grahame, I reserved a Premium LR RWD. I agree they always said Premiums would begin late 2020, but that doesn’t say when a Premium with a reservation # of 46,000 would arrive. We don’t know what Ford is anticipating as a weekly production number.
My assumption (and that's all it is, as it seems logical) has always been that the plan is for permanent (year-round) production, not a spurt of 50,000 in one quarter or something. That would likely mean in the neighborhood of 5,000/mo. With that reservation number, you were probably looking at next Summer anyway.

But I also expect more cancellations now. And it appears countries are already starting to allow closed businesses to ease back into work. Barring the appearance of a major 2nd wave surge, I think there's reason to be optimistic that the MME won't see a big delay. I'd still guess a Summer delivery for a res# in the mid-40,000's. Just my guess though.
 

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I just poked around in the Mexican government Covid-19 statistics and it is looking promising for the Cuautitlan plant to open soon. Mexico had a large spike of cases around 20 April. Both the number of cases and fatalities for Mexico are now largely driven by the cases in Mexico City and neighboring Mexico State where Cuautitlan is located.

The good news is new confirmed cases seem to have peaked around 20 April and new fatalities appear to have peaked even earlier. Suspected cases peaked around 23 April but a drop after that could have more to do with reporting over the weekend. That suggests Covid-19 may have been declining for about a week. By next week they will have a better feel for whether those statistics hold true.

If Mexico is following a similar plan to watch for 14 days of declining cases, fatalities, and hospitalization, that could result in them getting back on track in early May. That could mean a coordinated re-opening across all of Ford-NA as long a there are no local Covid-19 stop-work orders in place for the plant.

Even better news is that the Cuautitlan district has ver few cases (only 24 cases in Cuatitlan and 26 in Cuatitlan Izcalli). Of course, we don't know in which districts the factory workers actually live.

Their health statistics can be found at:
https://coronavirus.gob.mx/datos/
 

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Even better news is that the Cuautitlan district has ver few cases (only 24 cases in Cuatitlan and 26 in Cuatitlan Izcalli). Of course, we don't know in which districts the factory workers actually live.
The Cuautitlan plant is basically in a suburb of Mexico City.
 

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My assumption (and that's all it is, as it seems logical) has always been that the plan is for permanent (year-round) production, not a spurt of 50,000 in one quarter or something. That would likely mean in the neighborhood of 5,000/mo. With that reservation number, you were probably looking at next Summer anyway.

But I also expect more cancellations now. And it appears countries are already starting to allow closed businesses to ease back into work. Barring the appearance of a major 2nd wave surge, I think there's reason to be optimistic that the MME won't see a big delay. I'd still guess a Summer delivery for a res# in the mid-40,000's. Just my guess though.
One clarification I would add, however, is that we cannot assume that reservation number equates to production order. I suspect that Ken7's 46000 reservation number will see production before my 7000 reservation number GT. In other words, Ken7 may likely be ahead of 30% of reservations that are for the GT, if Ford builds all Premium before switching over the production line to the GTs.
 

ChasingCoral

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Unfortunately, I just have a .pdf copy that I've received due to my work in supporting our company's efforts in Mexico.

Update: Just found a link to it -- but hope you've brushed up on your Spanish.
http://documents.nam.org/IEA/BOLETIN-36_Automotriz.pdf

My Spanish is very rusty at this point but I can get the gist of written reports and check it against Google Translate, which keeps getting better. This looks like a fair, albeit rudimentary, translation. It does allow one to get the gist of the announcement.

From Google Translate:
Press Release No.36
Mexico City, April 24, 2020
North American governments prepare plan to reopen the automotive sector in the region
• The Government of Mexico will be emphatic in protecting health and will ensure that the reopening is orderly, gradual and cautious.
• This joint effort will result in a common benefit for the three nations with a positive balance in public health and in the revival of the productive sectors.

The Government of Mexico works closely, coordinated and permanently with the authorities of the governments of the United States and Canada in order to establish the criteria, guidelines, protocols and conditions that must be observed to allow and successfully move towards the reopening of productive activities. of the industry automotive in North America.

This industry has significant economic relevance for multiple reasons. The automotive sector is a mainstay of formal employment in North America. In Mexico alone, close to a million people are employed in this sector. In addition, the automotive industry is particularly important due to the size, geographic scope and extent of supply chains between various suppliers of all sizes in the three countries.

In turn, the characteristics of the automotive industry mean that its reopening entails challenges in terms of health, so the governments of the three countries design a coordinated strategy that will prioritize mechanisms that safeguard public health in the context of the current pandemic. In Mexico, the Government will be particularly emphatic in protecting the health of workers, their families and their community, so that the competent authorities will monitor that the reopening of the automotive industry is orderly, gradual and cautious.

It is recognized that within the three countries there are regions and localities with particular sanitary conditions, which is why the degree of spread of COVID-19, the demographic characteristics, the health condition, risk and vulnerability of people are different, as well as the capacities and restrictions of local public health systems to respond to the emergency. Thus, the elaboration of the plan to reopen the automotive sector in North America will contemplate this diversity and complexity. Meanwhile, the automotive industry and its supply chains in Mexico will abide by the suspension of activities mandated by the General Health Council.

The Government of Mexico expresses its firm will, willingness and support to build a trinational solution that pays for the coordination and synchronization of our production processes. With the understanding that, by protecting the health of the population, the optimal operational continuity of companies in the medium and long terms.

In the coming days, the governments of Mexico, Canada and the United States will release more information on the reopening plan. Tri-national cooperation will allow this plan to be based on scientific evidence and best practices shared by public health agencies in the three countries. Also, this collaborative exercise will serve as an antecedent to determine in Mexico the return of other non-essential economic activities. This joint effort will result in a common benefit for the three nations with a positive balance in public health and reactivation of the productive sectors.
 

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The Cuautitlan plant is basically in a suburb of Mexico City.
Yes, that's definitely true. As Mexico City has similar commuting patterns to most big cities, lots of people who work in the city live in suburbs and exurbs. As the plant is in the suburbs of Mexico City, many workers are likely to live outside of the densest parts of Mexico City . That's better than if the plant were in the center of the city but not nearly as good as if it were farther out of town.
 

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One clarification I would add, however, is that we cannot assume that reservation number equates to production order. I suspect that Ken7's 46000 reservation number will see production before my 7000 reservation number GT. In other words, Ken7 may likely be ahead of 30% of reservations that are for the GT, if Ford builds all Premium before switching over the production line to the GTs.
You may be right. I still question whether the GT launch planned 6 months after the others was because the plant could only crank out one trim at a time, or whether it was just a strategy decision. I tend to think it's the latter. Perhaps based on price, i.e. they wanted to get a good sales base built with the "cheaper" versions first, especially for Europe (expecting that the GT would be bigger in the US).

If that's the case, then it probably means they can produce multiple trims concurrently. In other words, even after they start producing GTs, they still have the ability to crank out other trims at the same time.

But OTOH, if 30% of reservations are for GTs (10k-15k), that's a lot to crank out, so maybe they will switch to almost all GTs at that point.
 

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My assumption (and that's all it is, as it seems logical) has always been that the plan is for permanent (year-round) production, not a spurt of 50,000 in one quarter or something. That would likely mean in the neighborhood of 5,000/mo. With that reservation number, you were probably looking at next Summer anyway.

But I also expect more cancellations now. And it appears countries are already starting to allow closed businesses to ease back into work. Barring the appearance of a major 2nd wave surge, I think there's reason to be optimistic that the MME won't see a big delay. I'd still guess a Summer delivery for a res# in the mid-40,000's. Just my guess though.
Oops. That will teach me to read properly. It says, and always has, that delivery will be 'from' Autumn (Fall) 2020, so you could be right in your assumption about the higher numbers. If you are right it gives me more time to save and hopefully get the initial gremlins out of the system. I dont think it will change my mind unless something more inviting comes along
 

Ken7

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My assumption (and that's all it is, as it seems logical) has always been that the plan is for permanent (year-round) production, not a spurt of 50,000 in one quarter or something. That would likely mean in the neighborhood of 5,000/mo. With that reservation number, you were probably looking at next Summer anyway.

But I also expect more cancellations now. And it appears countries are already starting to allow closed businesses to ease back into work. Barring the appearance of a major 2nd wave surge, I think there's reason to be optimistic that the MME won't see a big delay. I'd still guess a Summer delivery for a res# in the mid-40,000's. Just my guess though.
Yeah, I think you're right and because of that I'm losing interest. Waiting over a year is just not worth it to me.
 

dbsb3233

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Yeah, I think you're right and because of that I'm losing interest. Waiting over a year is just not worth it to me.
Could be Spring, but I wouldn't get my hopes up for anything sooner. Even the very first ones are probably looking at November now.

Not sure what will happen to the ones that get canceled late after people do their test drives. Whether they'll just go to dealers anyway (for sale off the lot) or reallocated to other dealers, who knows. But maybe there's a slim chance of a cancellation just going onto the lot for sale.
 



 









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