RonTCat

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Solid state I think is still a bit away for mainstream, but I do think companies should be putting some heavy focus into it as its defiantly where I think things are heading.

Toyota is the only "major" company, that I'm aware of, that is doing a solid state battery. Which honestly is a bit of a weird statement given their stance on EV development...
Everyone is working on a solid state battery... Toyota might be the farthest behind.
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timbop

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So ya, chances are they will still never catch up unless something halts Tesla’s production in the coming years.
Let's think about this logically for a moment. Worldwide the auto industry sells 50 to 70 million cars a year (depending upon year and whose numbers we use). That sounds like a much larger lead relative to Tesla's sales (~2 million ALL TIME by the end of this year) than Tesla's lead over legacy EV offerings. BYD and VW are already giving Tesla's sales numbers serious competition, and the other manufacturers are just getting serious about the market.

In reality the notion that Tesla's 4 factories are going to continue to outproduce and outsell VW, Ford, and all the rest of the top manufacturers with dozens of plants is untenable. The market valuation of Tesla being more valuable than the top 5 automakers combined is absurd.

A lot can change in that amount of time.
Yes, which is why Tesla is actually going to lose significant marketshare. Recent history is replete with early pioneers being overtaken by much larger companies that were originally slow to adopt a new market space. How's 'crackberry' stock these days?
 

2FlyMache

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Let's think about this logically for a moment. Worldwide the auto industry sells 50 to 70 million cars a year (depending upon year and whose numbers we use). That sounds like a much larger lead relative to Tesla's sales (~2 million ALL TIME by the end of this year) than Tesla's lead over legacy EV offerings. BYD and VW are already giving Tesla's sales numbers serious competition, and the other manufacturers are just getting serious about the market.

In reality the notion that Tesla's 4 factories are going to continue to outproduce and outsell VW, Ford, and all the rest of the top manufacturers with dozens of plants is untenable. The market valuation of Tesla being more valuable than the top 5 automakers combined is absurd.


Yes, which is why Tesla is actually going to lose significant marketshare. Recent history is replete with early pioneers being overtaken by much larger companies that were originally slow to adopt a new market space. How's 'crackberry' stock these days?
I've said this before but I do think that Elon is going to move away from cars and lean into infrastructure. As more of the mainstream automakers get fully into EV production, it will be hard for him to compete with them in production and quality. I don't think it will happen in the next decade but it will be hard for them to compete after that.
 

Mach1E

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I've said this before but I do think that Elon is going to move away from cars and lean into infrastructure. As more of the mainstream automakers get fully into EV production, it will be hard for him to compete with them in production and quality. I don't think it will happen in the next decade but it will be hard for them to compete after that.
If Tesla were to partner with one of the big car companies to jointly build some cars that would be a huge win.

Toyota makes cars jointly with Subaru and BMW for example. Toyota/Tesla joint venture would be great.

Musks ego would probably never allow it. He wouldn’t do a joint venture with SpaceX.
 


blue92lx

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If Tesla were to partner with one of the big car companies to jointly build some cars that would be a huge win.

Toyota makes cars jointly with Subaru and BMW for example. Toyota/Tesla joint venture would be great.

Musks ego would probably never allow it. He wouldn’t do a joint venture with SpaceX.
This is the only way they won't turn into a niche market for people who like absolute minimal interior design, etc. They won't be able to claim that they're the option to go to anymore for fast EV when Porsche, Audi, even ford when they release a mustang coupe EV, all with better interior.

Tesla is where they are right now because they haven't had competition. 2021 and 2022 every manufacturer is joining the game.

I'm not saying Tesla will close, but good luck seeing another 2 million cars by 2030 without a big change.

Thanks for getting us here Elon, now let the real manufacturers take the reigns. This is the reality.
 

RonTCat

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If Tesla were to partner with one of the big car companies to jointly build some cars that would be a huge win.

Toyota makes cars jointly with Subaru and BMW for example. Toyota/Tesla joint venture would be great.

Musks ego would probably never allow it. He wouldn’t do a joint venture with SpaceX.
It's definitely not an Elon ego thing. Elon has begged for partnerships... thanks, but no thanks. It's an Elon management style thing... no companies will joint venture or take part ownership in Tesla as long as Elon is in the management structure. If he becomes a Tesla figurehead only, this will reverse.
 

Kabish

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Everyone is working on a solid state battery... Toyota might be the farthest behind.
Who else has a working driving prototype? Toyota is the only one I’ve seen from the “major” players.
 

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Excited

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Good news indeed!

I'm hoping the next big investment will be an EV factory – and more technical plants & teams – in Europe. @Ford Motor Company should really consider Norway, as engineers, technicians and leaders here are already thinking about what industry to go to when the downscaling of the oil industry hits them. The political situation here will make it happen sooner than elsewhere, and the price of hiring people with high technical competence is relatively low compared to other countries.

????

EDIT: I see that Ford is bragging about the E-Transit being built in Europe, but that's like saying our Mach-Es are built in the US!
 
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MyLittlePony2022

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I would agree with the 3 to 5 years. It will take them a year to get past the state and local planning approval. A year plus to design the factory and a few years to build it and put in equipment. If they are smart they will build it in modular form (like Tesla did) so they can build in phases. This allows them to get phase 1 in production while the other phases are under fit up and construction.

I saw an article that everyone is wondering if the yet to built plant will go union or not. Other foreign auto makers and Tesla facilities have not gone union. I sure the unions tried but that is up to the workers. GM is building a battery plant too. The UAW contract negotiations in 2023 will definitely have this new plant as a topic.
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