eager2own

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I'm guessing Dec rather than Nov. I'm also guessing that most of the early ones will now just end up in California. Now that the whole "orderly" plan of getting them to Europe and the US at roughly the same time is out the window, I suspect the same goes for trying to get them to all 50 states at roughly the same time. So I suspect we're back to California getting most of the early ones like we see with most other BEVs.
This is likely true especially as I bet that Ford is racing against the clock to get some vehicles delivered in December if only to be able to say that they managed to make deliveries in 2020 as first announced.
 

ClaudeMach-E

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Ok! I would like to join my voice to the game of speculative trend about construction/delivery dates. We all agree that they are likely to build 50,000 units, although the last entry in the Worldwide Mach-E Reservation Tracker is indicating 69XXX number in date of 2020-05-09, so that is an average production rate of 4,150 units per month, maybe they can ramp up this number to compensate for the time lost to Covid-19. It seems also that the 2 months delay will not necessarily be, it might only be 1.5 month, who knows for sure at this point. It was also published that the GT model was schedule for spring 2021, now probably pushed to the summer of 2021 maybe. So now let’s play assuming you have a 25XXX number.

I suppose that production should start at least 2 months prior to deliveries because of course they have to count shipping to dealers, border and all other admin necessary. I do suppose the first month of production will all be for deliveries in December in US/Canada, has proposed lately, so production can start in October and be ship has it is coming out of the production line, filling trucks and trains has needed.

For EU/UK, they might need a stop in production to swap and adapt the line because they are in some ways different from NA units, the CCS connector and electrical system is different, the mapping for the nav system, maybe some other handling programming made for EU/UK, and of course the right hand steering wheel for UK, let say this production begins in November, ships in December and arrive the other side late December for deliveries in January. Or these two assumptions could be reversed.

Now let’s say that there’s a 10% cancellation rate of reservation, it would make 2,500 units (for 6 months) to subtract from your 25XXX number, so you are now let’s say at 22,500 numbers in line. Has for the GT, it was announce pretty early there was 30% reservation in the US for it, so out of 20,000 units you can now delete another 6000 units of your 22,500 number, so you are now at 16,500 number, not so bad. So at 4,150 units a month on average you can now expect your delivery in 4 months after beginning of production.

For me, thanks to Chasing Coral who posted the Worldwide Mach-E Reservation Tracker, link and Paulalex01 who posted his number, I can now place myself around 32,500 less 8,500 = 24,000 number so that would make my own delivery roughly in May 2021.:rolleyes:

So play your own game and have fun .;)
 
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SD_Solar

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I'm guessing Dec rather than Nov. I'm also guessing that most of the early ones will now just end up in California. Now that the whole "orderly" plan of getting them to Europe and the US at roughly the same time is out the window, I suspect the same goes for trying to get them to all 50 states at roughly the same time. So I suspect we're back to California getting most of the early ones like we see with most other BEVs.
I rather doubt that unless Ford marketing has a complete reversal on how they were going to introduce the Mach-E to the US market.

St00K on the Mach-E Forum had a meeting with Jason Mase who oversees Ford Electrification Marketing Strategy at the Chicago Auto Show and asked him the following question.

Q: What deliveries will take place in Q4? Just the First Edition?
A: First Edition will be delivered in Q4 as well as some Premium, Select, and Calif Route 1 models. He also added that all 50 states will get Q4 deliveries, regardless of the reservation number. They want to make sure that it's not just a bunch of models all getting shipped to California.
 

dbsb3233

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My number is 29xxx. If I followed through on my reservation, I'm guessing about the same (Apr-May delivery).

I think there's gonna be more than 10% reservation cancellations though (or non-follow-thrus). I'm probably biasing that toward my situation a little too much, but I think there's a lot of reasons for it. Many are COVID-related... jobs lost, investments down, and money tighter now; delays making potential buyers frustrated; too much unknown in the timelines. But also just general frustrations with having to convert reservations to orders long before any demo models are available to see/sit/drive. Even though it appeared that would probably be the case anyway, I think we all hoped we'd get a chance to read some reviews or at least get to see some in person at auto shows.

But the reality is setting in now that this will be even more of a blind order process than many hoped. A lot still hinges on the order process. If there's significant non-refundables involved, I think as many as 40-50% could head for the door. Refundable deposits (or no deposit) would improve that, as would other positive measures like more info, actual reviews, in-person displays, etc. But doesn't look like much of that is gonna happen before ordering. As such, I think there will probably be at least a 20-25% cancel rate now. (Pretty sure I will now, and look to buy off the lot later next year... assuming the stock market rebounds further.)
 

dbsb3233

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I rather doubt that unless Ford marketing has a complete reversal on how they were going to introduce the Mach-E to the US market.

St00K on the Mach-E Forum had a meeting with Jason Mase who oversees Ford Electrification Marketing Strategy at the Chicago Auto Show and asked him the following question.

Q: What deliveries will take place in Q4? Just the First Edition?
A: First Edition will be delivered in Q4 as well as some Premium, Select, and Calif Route 1 models. He also added that all 50 states will get Q4 deliveries, regardless of the reservation number. They want to make sure that it's not just a bunch of models all getting shipped to California.
I hope that's still right. I just have a feeling that delivering according to reservation# is gonna be a lot harder for them now, and much of that plan will fall prey to just getting more out in bulk.
 

eager2own

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I rather doubt that unless Ford marketing has a complete reversal on how they were going to introduce the Mach-E to the US market.

St00K on the Mach-E Forum had a meeting with Jason Mase who oversees Ford Electrification Marketing Strategy at the Chicago Auto Show and asked him the following question.

Q: What deliveries will take place in Q4? Just the First Edition?
A: First Edition will be delivered in Q4 as well as some Premium, Select, and Calif Route 1 models. He also added that all 50 states will get Q4 deliveries, regardless of the reservation number. They want to make sure that it's not just a bunch of models all getting shipped to California.
A lot has changed since the Chicago Auto Show. For example, back then Ford was also saying that it would be available in EU and US at the same time. Yes, we're all speculating as to what exactly will change, but I think it's safe to say that some things probably have and we can't just assume that the timing discussed in February is still intact. I can see Ford changing priorities just to ensure it can get some initial models in customer hands in 2020.
 

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First of all we need to know the number of Dutch cars which needs to be delivered in 2020 for tax reasons...and maybe for some other countries as well. Then Ford can do some magic and create a fine production planning 🙏
 

ClaudeMach-E

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My number is 29xxx. If I followed through on my reservation, I'm guessing about the same (Apr-May delivery).

I think there's gonna be more than 10% reservation cancellations though (or non-follow-thrus). I'm probably biasing that toward my situation a little too much, but I think there's a lot of reasons for it. Many are COVID-related... jobs lost, investments down, and money tighter now; delays making potential buyers frustrated; too much unknown in the timelines. But also just general frustrations with having to convert reservations to orders long before any demo models are available to see/sit/drive. Even though it appeared that would probably be the case anyway, I think we all hoped we'd get a chance to read some reviews or at least get to see some in person at auto shows.

But the reality is setting in now that this will be even more of a blind order process than many hoped. A lot still hinges on the order process. If there's significant non-refundables involved, I think as many as 40-50% could head for the door. Refundable deposits (or no deposit) would improve that, as would other positive measures like more info, actual reviews, in-person displays, etc. But doesn't look like much of that is gonna happen before ordering. As such, I think there will probably be at least a 20-25% cancel rate now. (Pretty sure I will now, and look to buy off the lot later next year... assuming the stock market rebounds further.)
Let's not forget these 19,000 numbers over the 50,000 ones, they might be of 2 things cancellation or reservation for late 2021 early 2022. So if we pick a 9,000 numbers for cancellation we can gain a good 2.5 months, that would be more my expectation. :)
 

dbsb3233

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Let's not forget these 19,000 numbers over the 50,000 ones, they might be of 2 things cancellation or reservation for late 2021 early 2022. So if we pick a 9,000 numbers for cancellation we can gain a good 2.5 months, that would be more my expectation. :)
I've been puzzled at that 69xxx reservation number. It, and the few others reported in the higher numbers, are wholly inconsistent with the pace of numbers that slowed to a crawl around 46,000. I really don't think there were anything close to 69,000 actual reservations.
 

ClaudeMach-E

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I've been puzzled at that 69xxx reservation number. It, and the few others reported in the higher numbers, are wholly inconsistent with the pace of numbers that slowed to a crawl around 46,000. I really don't think there were anything close to 69,000 actual reservations.
Yes it's all part of the speculation game.
 

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For what it is worth, I saw Elon talking on a recent 3hr Podcast. He talked about how hard it was to ship to multiple countries from a single plant (Fremont, CA). He mentioned the changes needed to be made at the plant to accommodate left hand and right drive cars as well as language specific changes to warning signs within the car itself (High Voltage, etc.) Country specific Items like headlights. He went on to describe issues with shipping to europe. He said Tesla gravitated toward running the plant in 6 week runs...one for Europe, then the East coast of the US, then the West coast. If they started each quarter that way, then all the cars would be at their destinations at the end of each quarter and be sold by the end of the quarter..nothing in transit. I don’t remember how China fit into that schedule...but that is no longer a problem.

This may be one of the factors that is delaying the Mach-e getting to Europe. 4Qtr cars won’t count as revenue if they are in a ship queued for the Panama Canal or bouncing around South America (two delays mentioned by Elon). If they ship To Europe in early 1Q, then those cars will count in 1Q sales.
 

LYTMCQ

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He talked about how hard it was to ship to multiple countries from a single plant (Fremont, CA)
I wouldn't go by Elon so much on car mfg. Not his strong suit. Tesla has so many issues that other car mfgs don't from fit and finish to quality control on parts to mfg "hell".

Interesting article on how inefficient Tesla is at Fremont vs. GM/Toyota. It's a great EV, but has issues as a car.

"Tesla bought an old GM-Toyota factory and made it cool — but in its former life it built a lot more cars. Interestingly, Tesla's factory in Fremont, CA, has a theoretical manufacturing capacity of 500,000 vehicles annually. That's because back in the 1980s, it was called New United Motor Manufacturing, Inc. (NUMMI) and was run as a partnership between General Motors and Toyota. If Tesla has an Achilles' heel, it's that it can't build cars with the same relative ease as other major automakers. The contrast between what was happening at NUMMI in the '80s and what's happeningnow highlights this problem."

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-factory-built-more-cars-when-it-belonged-gm-and-toyota-2017-10
 

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I wouldn't go by Elon so much on car mfg. Not his strong suit. Tesla has so many issues that other car mfgs don't from fit and finish to quality control on parts to mfg "hell".

Interesting article on how inefficient Tesla is at Fremont vs. GM/Toyota. It's a great EV, but has issues as a car.

"Tesla bought an old GM-Toyota factory and made it cool — but in its former life it built a lot more cars. Interestingly, Tesla's factory in Fremont, CA, has a theoretical manufacturing capacity of 500,000 vehicles annually. That's because back in the 1980s, it was called New United Motor Manufacturing, Inc. (NUMMI) and was run as a partnership between General Motors and Toyota. If Tesla has an Achilles' heel, it's that it can't build cars with the same relative ease as other major automakers. The contrast between what was happening at NUMMI in the '80s and what's happeningnow highlights this problem."

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-factory-built-more-cars-when-it-belonged-gm-and-toyota-2017-10
It sounds like you have had some problems with your T3. It seems that the car is a pretty good design but Built with poor manufacturing techniques. I watched Sandy Munro tear apart his TY in podcasts. Seems that some of the problems you report are still there. My TS was built during a slow build time (2015) and came out pretty well. I think when they hit the T3 volumes, then they fell apart.

I would buy a TY today if it had the features that the MME has. I turned one down in March. If the MME gets anywhere near a 300 MPH EPA rating, then I taking mine no matter what the quality.
 

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It seems that the car is a pretty good design but Built with poor manufacturing techniques.
Probably opposite for me. More design issue than build but I got a 2019 vs. 2018, In one year I've had four repair visits where car says "Get to shop now". They got fixed in two days each time with loaner. Had to PPF rockers and put in mudflaps as due to issues of rocker covers de-laminating and poor paint but my biggest issues were design, no working BLIS, RCTA, basic Lane Keeping, issues with control screen on right and lack of dedicated controls for essential functions. Poor safeties.

Ford Mach-E fixes all those problems and I expect higher quality initially so no "Get to shop now" notices. I lose 40 miles or range but I think I can live with that to get the better safeties.
 
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