FORD PRO CEO SAYS LFP BATTERIES WILL BE 10 PERCENT CHEAPER

[dbsb3233]

I don't agree at all.

The answer is longer range cars and more destination chargers. If I can go 600 miles between charges, I can go just about anywhere without a DCFC stop. Personally I am on the verge of hating every DCFC stop I make, not because it takes 20 minutes, but because of charger congestion and other problems that makes it take an hour.

An hour stop to refuel is totally unacceptable and no normal person (I am speaking of ICE drivers) will tolerate it. I won't, even though I am not normal and I am an early adopter.

I mostly agree, although maybe not to the same degree. Most of the public won't want a BEV that has to be charged every 75-100 miles on a road trip, IMO. I know that sounds almost silly-low, but it's not far off from what we already do now in our MME. By the time we account for highway speed, variable temps, and safety buffers, the most we've ever gone on a road trip leg in our (270 mile EPA) MME is 183 miles. And that's from 100%. From a mid-trip charge to 80%, it's more like 140 miles. And due to the spacing of many DCFCs, we really only average about 120 miles per leg. Most people used to 250+ mile true highway range in ICE or PHEV vehicles won't settle for 75-100 IMO (like a modest 60-70 kWh battery would do).

I think 400+ EPA will be the eventual benchmark to shoot for (which is more like 200 for a practical highway leg) that will get most of the public onboard. I don't think most will accept hourly stops.

This EV adoption ramp-up will all take longer than many are hoping for/expecting. 10-20 years. There's a lot of potential battery formulas being worked on that could deliver better energy density and features. It's likely something better will become the new standard, maybe before the end of this decade, making 400+ miles the new norm. Sulfer, aluminum, and sodium are showing promise. And of course solid state.

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[mkhuffman]

I mostly agree, although maybe not to the same degree. Most of the public won't want a BEV that has to be charged every 75-100 miles on a road trip, IMO. I know that sounds almost silly-low, but it's not far off from what we already do now in our MME. By the time we account for highway speed, variable temps, and safety buffers, the most we've ever gone on a road trip leg in our (270 mile EPA) MME is 183 miles. And that's from 100%. From a mid-trip charge to 80%, it's more like 140 miles. And due to the spacing of many DCFCs, we really only average about 120 miles per leg. Most people used to 250+ mile true highway range in ICE or PHEV vehicles won't settle for 75-100 IMO (like a modest 60-70 kWh battery would do).

I think 400+ EPA will be the eventual benchmark to shoot for (which is more like 200 for a practical highway leg) that will get most of the public onboard. I don't think most will accept hourly stops.

This EV adoption ramp-up will all take longer than many are hoping for/expecting. 10-20 years. There's a lot of potential battery formulas being worked on that could deliver better energy density and features. It's likely something better will become the new standard, maybe before the end of this decade, making 400+ miles the new norm. Sulfer, aluminum, and sodium are showing promise. And of course solid state.

I think you make great points about actual highway range while using DCFC stations on a trip, vs. EPA range. It is definitely true that most people will hate traveling in a BEV if they have to stop every 100 miles to charge. And with these new batteries, that is what will happen. It will be worse in the winter.

While I do agree the 400 mile range target will help, I really don't think that is enough. I really think something much higher is needed to get people to give up the convenience of a gas station on every corner. As much as we want it to happen, there will not be a DCFC station on every corner any time in the next 10-20 years. And I really don't think we need that anyway, if we have cars that can go 600 miles before needing to charge again.

If EPA range is 600 miles, the average person will be able to go weeks without needing a charge. People living in an apartment will actually be able to handle driving a BEV even if they cannot charge a their home, which based on our current apartment infrastructure, is what most apartment people will have to deal with. They can drive around town for 3-4 weeks, or more, and hit a local DCFC to recharge, and then do it again. So great. But if they have to do that every 200 miles? Sorry, but I would much rather have an ICE, and most people will agree.

As you said, battery technology is advancing. Lucid already makes a very nice car that can go over 500 miles on a charge. As technology improves, it will become much more common, and much cheaper. A 600 mile range car is not only likely, it is certain. And that will change everything. I will be able to easily drive the 145 mile commute to my office, not worry about free charger hogging a-holes, and drive home with plenty of charge to spare. That will kill the ICE vehicle dead, boom.

More DCFC stations will not kill the ICE vehicle at all. There is nothing better about a 20-30 minute charge compared to a 5 minute gas fill up, especially since most ICE vehicles can go 300-500 miles between fill ups, and even better on the highway.

 

[mkhuffman]

• Charge stops are 30 minutes, not an hour...

So....

This is true if there is an open charger at the station, and if you don't need a full charge, and if your battery is not cold, and if the charger is not cold, and if the charger is working properly. There might be more "ifs", but the point is I have experienced both issue free DCFC stops, and multiple issue stops. How many times does it take the average person to lose patience with their car when it happens once, twice, three times a lady?

For me, once or twice is enough to hate it. Every DCFC stop is stressful, because I don't know what to expect. I had to get a 10 minute charge on my drive home from my mom's and it turned into an hour. First all the chargers were in use, so I had wait. And then I could not get the charger to connect to my car. Seriously? Luckily I was alone. My wife would have hated it twice as much as I did.

No, more chargers is NOT the answer. The DCFC process sucks. And it will suck for years. We need cars that don't need to do a DCFC stop. That is what will get people to switch. More charging stations that suck is not the answer.

 

[BigMach-E]

Not to thread jack, but @mkhuffman makes a great point. I would say during my year and a half of EV ownership, I would say 30-40 percent of my DCFC sessions have had an issue. It’s frustrating, and I (like many here) know more about charging than they should. Most normal people won’t deal with it, being that you have to do it way more often than an ICE vehicle.

 

[Mach-Lee]

Really curious what the range hit is going to be with LFP. They only hold about 65% of the energy as NMC. If they use the standard pack it will only be about 45 kWh, and if they use the extended/stacked pack case it will be about 60 kWh. I don't think anyone will want the 45 kWh pack, so seems more likely they will use the stacked pack (est. 60 kWh) for LFP to help balance out the capacity loss. That's still going to be a downgrade from the current 70 kWh standard pack.

There are pros and cons of using LFP, but be prepared for a capacity and range drop compared to the more energy dense NMC we have now.

I also wonder if LFP will replace the standard range pack, or will become a third pack option. If it replaces standard, I'll be waiting for the big angry forum topic questioning why Ford dropped the capacity of the standard range pack.

 

[dbsb3233]

Really curious what the range hit is going to be with LFP. They only hold about 65% of the energy as NMC. If they use the standard pack it will only be about 45 kWh, and if they use the extended/stacked pack case it will be about 60 kWh. I don't think anyone will want the 45 kWh pack, so seems more likely they will use the stacked pack (est. 60 kWh) for LFP to help balance out the capacity loss. That's still going to be a downgrade from the current 70 kWh standard pack.

There are pros and cons of using LFP, but be prepared for the capacity and range drop compared to the more energy dense NMC we have now.

Yeah, even 60 would be disappointing. They get a little of that back by not needing to lock away as much buffer in reserve, but still. IIRC the current usable on the SR is 68kWh? Maybe slightly more after the 2021's? A usable of only 58 (thus 15% lower range) wouldn't be good. I've gotta think the LFP cells won't be THAT much worse, otherwise I doubt they'd use them.

 

[RedStallion]

Thermal runaway test video

It's a misrepresentation. Though LFP is not as combustible they still burn pretty well.

 

[roamtheworld]

Agreed but LFP is "less" likely to create instant fire when punctured or damaged.
Here is a good example, both experience a thermal event but LFP doesn't have the open flames.
With the I don't like EV group because EVs catch fire all the time this helps give some measure of safety.
We all know ICE cars catch fire at far greater rates but as EV increase road use the numbers will begin to increase.

 

[Gilles]

yes worse in the cold than NMC, but add a heat pump, and more effective preconditioning when plugged in at home and it can be largely mitigated.

I think resistive heating will work better in very cold conditions. Once plugged in, it can start warming the battery right away. I saw a review of a Model 3 driver sitting for over an hour at a supercharger waiting for the heat pump to warm the battery, but the heat pump needs battery heat when it is below -20C.
I live in Toronto and do not have a garage. My Mach-e is outside all the time. I have level 2 and do overnight charging. I remote start it 15 mins before heading out and get in a nice warm car with windows defrosted. Will be interesting to see how the MME handles with LFP in winter.

 

[Blue highway]

I think resistive heating will work better in very cold conditions. Once plugged in, it can start warming the battery right away. I saw a review of a Model 3 driver sitting for over an hour at a supercharger waiting for the heat pump to warm the battery, but the heat pump needs battery heat when it is below -20C.
I live in Toronto and do not have a garage. My Mach-e is outside all the time. I have level 2 and do overnight charging. I remote start it 15 mins before heading out and get in a nice warm car with windows defrosted. Will be interesting to see how the MME handles with LFP in winter.

Cars with a heat pump still have resistive heating for extreme conditions. (As do homes with heat pumps)

Here are the average highs and lows for Toronto... Yes there are extreme days where you need resistive heat, but most of the heating (yellow highlights) can be more efficiently handled with a heat pump

 

[Gilles]

Cars with a heat pump still have resistive heating for extreme conditions. (As do homes with heat pumps)

Here are the average highs and lows for Toronto... Yes there are extreme days where you need resistive heat, but most of the heating (yellow highlights) can be more efficiently handled with a heat pump

"Cars with a heat pump still have resistive heating" is incorrect for the Tesla Model Y. If you google "Tesla heat pump problem in extreme cold?" you will see that the heat pump has caused many problems. That was before LFP batteries, which makes it even more important to be able to heat the battery quickly before charging. I think a simple resistive heater would do the job faster when faced with a cold battery at a DC fast charger.
Average weather chart means nothing when faced with a -25C cold front.

Why not add a resistive heater in addition to the heat pump? The cost is minimal.

 

[dbsb3233]

"Cars with a heat pump still have resistive heating" is incorrect for the Tesla Model Y. If you google "Tesla heat pump problem in extreme cold?" you will see that the heat pump has caused many problems. That was before LFP batteries, which makes it even more important to be able to heat the battery quickly before charging. I think a simple resistive heater would do the job faster when faced with a cold battery at a DC fast charger.
Average weather chart means nothing when faced with a -25C cold front.

Why not add a resistive heater in addition to the heat pump? The cost is minimal.

Seems like heftier heating is gonna have to be the next evolution for EVs in general, if they have plans to sell them in cold climates (which of course they do). Especially as many models shift to LFP batteries which reportedly are even worse in the cold.

Some EV purists may choose to turn off the cabin heat and shiver just to save 10% on range, but most mainstream buyers aren't gonna put up with that. They want a comfortable cabin AND a properly conditioned battery. Or at least want enough heating capacity available to make that choice on their own. That's often gonna require better/stronger heating onboard.

In the mean time, we're probably gonna see a growing division in EV adoption between warm vs cold climates as more of the public learns the downsides of them in the cold.

 

[AZBill]

I am interested to see how the the LFP batteries react to colder temperatures. I have heard they are affected more by the cold but plenty of Teslas in cold climates so perhaps not an issue. Maybe Ford will enhance their heating system a bit.

Tesla uses heat pumps in their newer cars. So far Ford does not. LFPs are worse in cold, so they do need to be kept warmer.

 

[Gilles]

More DCFC stations will not kill the ICE vehicle at all. There is nothing better about a 20-30 minute charge compared to a 5 minute gas fill up, especially since most ICE vehicles can go 300-500 miles between fill ups, and even better on the highway.

What about $5 per 200 miles for electricity, versus $70, or never using a DCFC in town as you are always charged in the morning from your overnight plug? I have driven my MME for 2 years and used DCFC a grand total of 4 times. It is not that I don't take trips over 300 miles, it is the availability of destination chargers everywhere. One example was a 400+ KM trip where I had planned to stop at a DCFC, but at my destination, the parking lot had level 2 chargers (free). So the 3 hours meeting was enough for me to avoid the DCFC.

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

I wonder if Ford will redesign the thermal management for the LFP battery. They'll have to make some changes inside the pack, so hopefully they'll take that opportunity to rearrange and remove some extraneous plumbing.

They already have a heat pump that's dead weight in the cold, they "just" need to reroute the fluid flow so they can take advantage of the AC compressor to heat the battery and warm the cabin.

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