Ford will be bankrupt in less than 4 years

efisher

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Never is a long time, so I wouldn't go that far... more like not in the next 7 years. You do have to remember that cars is not all they do. You are forgetting about their solar panel and home energy storage (Powerwall 2). For long term value, I think I value their PowerWall 2 business better than their automobile business, and solar business also has potential but they have not been able to scale that right with inconsistent quality. The have highest market share in whole house battery backup. Full disclosure, I do not have and never had any Tesla stock (or shorted), and the only products I have is a pair of powerwall 2 (with 3rd party solar panels).

Couple of recent reference articles:
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-powerwall-2-dominates-us-energy-storage-market/
https://electrek.co/2020/10/01/tesla-tsla-increases-powerwall-price-demand/
While the Powerwall business is interesting, it is vulnerable to entry by battery manufacturers.
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jlauro

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Yes but Amazon didn't get where they are by sending folks books with the covers ripped off.
That was part of it, but selling used books was how they got started.
Not directly, but you referenced articles that did.

You're saying the fact that they offer multiple products makes them like Amazon?

In that case, most companies are like Amazon.
Not just products, but unique tech products. That said, yes a lot of companies are like them.

Anyways I think they are overvalued, but they do have potential. Market cap isn't always about where a company is today, but where do investors think it will be. I don't think they will grow so fast they will be at their market cap in 7 years, but I wouldn't say impossible (would if they were only an auto manufacturer) and certainly wouldn't say never.
 

Kamuelaflyer

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While the Powerwall business is interesting, it is vulnerable to entry by battery manufacturers.
There are better products available, though none is as well known as the Powerwall. I went through this while building our new house 2 years ago. The folks selling the Tesla systems (not the solar roof system) were pretty much worthless sales wise (Rising Sun and others). Once they found out I wanted to own the system (desperately needed tax credits that year) they were no longer interested at all. And new builds? They literally told me to call them after the house was built. Ummm no.

That's the sales part. Product wise, there are battery systems with smaller or no reserves, long(er) lives, minimize or eliminate rare earth metals, and are made in the USA as well.

Just for reference, the system we were looking for was about $20,000 more expensive than a Mustang Mach-e GT runs. Base rate electricity runs 45¢ per KWh or more out here. We're now essentially off-grid. I started out wanting the Tesla Powerwall system, I couldn't get anyone at Tesla to take my money. I can empathize with folks having trouble with their dealers and their mach-e orders.
 

dbsb3233

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You want to compare them closer to Apple and Amazon instead of Toyota. The problem with short sellers is they are not looking at the whole picture and are only thinking of Tesla as an auto manufacturer.
Or they may prove to be a Nokia, or a Lucent.

I agree with your general point that some investors are betting on the come more based on the prospects of products like Powerwall and especially Megapack for grid utilities. But even with that, their market cap is still grossly exaggerated. I think most of it is irrational exuberance from greens and fanboys that just passionately want to promote it, and from casual investors that mistakenly think Tesla will continue to represent the bulk of the BEV market. Not realizing that they will likely get overwhelmed by the collective offerings from legacy automakers within a few years.
 


dbsb3233

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Tesla may not even survive! This shows all the competition that is coming: Can Tesla Survive
That article is a bit outdated (2012). But the point is the same... there's a lot of BEVs coming from legacy automakers that already know how to properly build 80% of each automobile (arguably better than Tesla).
 

ChasingCoral

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Record sales in a very small pond does not demonstrate dominance.
Not true. Just look at spreadsheet software. Sales of Visicalc died when Lotus 1-2-3 came out. There was no question that Lotus 1-2-3 and their Lotus suite (word processor and database) would be the dominant force in personal computers.

Everyone still uses Lotus 1-2-3, right? ;)
 

JCHLi

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I heard WeWork was the next big "tech" company. Totally justifying it's huge price compared to traditional property companies....

Maybe I should cash out my Ford stock and invest in them!
 

darren

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I think Tesla will survive. They have an advantage in pricing.
1. They use a smaller battery pack.
2. Cars are cheaply made.
3. After November, there is a good chance they can ship a low price version of their Model Y and Model 3 (RWD) from China with cheap batteries that don't use Cobalt.

Hopefully, no price war. I am afraid Legacy Car makers will stop investing in EV.
 

jlauro

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They are both tech company with cult followings that think their product is superior when it's not really but willing to pay a bit of a premium for the brand.

Generally Apple's QC is better than Tesla. Tesla really needs to fix that.
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