Full scale production due to start in October

jlauro

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Where do we this side of the pond fit in. When we eventually get to confirm our orders, do we slot in between you guys or are we getting treated differently and have a whole system to ourselves?
As they seem to want to maximize NA sales this year, the most I could see them delaying other countries is until December to open up order banks. That said, I expect they will start to open it up before then... more likely October or November purely as a guess.
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I think there is value in being accurate in this forum, so that people new don't get mislead. That being said, the general idea that @jlauro is trying to convey is true.

I agree with @mamejunkie that reservation number is a good enough approximation of reservation timestamp. You don't have direct access to your reservation timestamp. But the sender timestamp of the reservation confirmation email should be close enough. However, talking about reservation timestamp is just too much hassle, and I don't see us replacing order number with reservation timestamp in the https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/submitted-orders-tracking-list-enter-yours.924 thread
Agreed. Production scheduling depends on reservation timestamp but reservation number is a reasonable proxy for our purposes.
I get that I came off as pedantic, but there's a very good reason: there's already a lot of confusion relating to the scheduling, and further mixed terminology just adds to the disarray. That is leading to a further misunderstanding as to how the production will be scheduled: there are many posters espousing the idea that order number or order date is what matters and that the reservations are irrelevant. Making it worse is that order date has SOME bearing on the schedule, but within the larger context of a batch which is prioritized by model and reservation timestamp.

I liked the analogy of flying standby: when they schedule a batch if there's room for those (the non-reserved orders) standing around the gate then they go. If the plane's full, they have to come back tomorrow to try again. Extending that analogy the non-FE reservations are like those with changeable tickets: if I choose to go to the airport then I fly that day instead of a standby; otherwise I am the one who has to catch a later flight.

So, when I wait to place an order for my reservation (placed on 11/24/19) until November or December of 2020, there will be many with a reservation placed long after me who will have their cars long before me - including even some who didn't reserve but placed an order this month. In fact, it is possible I may not even get my car until Summer of 2021 or later.

The bottom line is that Ford is giving early reservers a chance to get their car first, but Ford will not wait indefinitely and will fulfill a placed order in hand. They need to convert built cars into sold cars, and there is no reason to expect them to do otherwise.
 

jlauro

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So, when I wait to place an order for my reservation (placed on 11/24/19) until November or December of 2020, there will be many with a reservation placed long after me who will have their cars long before me - including even some who didn't reserve but placed an order this month. In fact, it is possible I may not even get my car until Summer of 2021 or later.

The bottom line is that Ford is giving early reservers a chance to get their car first, but Ford will not wait indefinitely and will fulfill a placed order in hand. They need to convert built cars into sold cars, and there is no reason to expect them to do otherwise.
Not exactly... Each production run is sorted by reservation date. Those that order without a reservation will be at the end of the production run. Not sure how long a production run is, probably at most 4 weeks. So if it takes ~2 months normally from order to delivery if no backlog of orders, it would add at most the length of a production run (my guess at most 1 month) for the start of the next production run.

If you wait until December, you will likely get it in March or April at the latest (assuming you have the lowest reservation date on the backlog).

(and yes... it's reservation date that matters, not reservation number... Generally the sequence is same/close, but not completely, especially in different regions. It was a good clarification to catch.)
 
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conflitm749

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My dealer told me he has a contact close with the manufacturing and that person has an order # in the 3000's and he is saying April 2021 delivery is realistic. :-(
 

jlauro

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My dealer told me he has a contact close with the manufacturing and that person has an order # in the 3000's and he is saying April 2021 delivery is realistic. :-(
I assume that is without a reservation, and without knowing the trim it's hard to say if that's good or not... If that is select, it's to be expected. If it's premium with a reservation it's not sounding good...
 


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My dealer told me he has a contact close with the manufacturing and that person has an order # in the 3000's and he is saying April 2021 delivery is realistic. :-(
That goes against all the other 'insiders' had said in this forum. Me think your dealer needs a new contact. Your numbers suggest that either they will start very late or only make a few hundred a week.
 

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Not exactly... Each production run is sorted by reservation date. Those that order without a reservation will be at the end of the production run. Not sure how long a production run is, probably at most 4 weeks. So if it takes ~2 months normally from order to delivery if no backlog of orders, it would add at most the length of a production run (my guess at most 1 month) for the start of the next production run.

If you wait until December, you will likely get it in March or April at the latest (assuming you have the lowest reservation date on the backlog).

(and yes... it's reservation date that matters, not reservation number... Generally the sequence is same/close, but not completely, especially in different regions. It was a good clarification to catch.)
That is exactly what I thought I said?? All the production runs between Oct and Dec/Jan will have been made before my car.
 

timbop

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My dealer told me he has a contact close with the manufacturing and that person has an order # in the 3000's and he is saying April 2021 delivery is realistic. :-(
I assume that is without a reservation, and without knowing the trim it's hard to say if that's good or not... If that is select, it's to be expected. If it's premium with a reservation it's not sounding good...
That goes against all the other 'insiders' had said in this forum. Me think your dealer needs a new contact. Your numbers suggest that either they will start very late or only make a few hundred a week.
It is wholly consistent with the order NUMBERS being irrelevant. The key information missing as @jlauro mentions is if and when a reservation was made (and in what trim). Presumably this is an unreserved order since reservations seem to have the res#=order# and the reservations started in the 4k's. Methinks the dealer's source is guessing that enough reservations will be converted on time to push an unreserved order out until April.
 

jlauro

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That is exactly what I thought I said?? All the production runs between Oct and Dec/Jan will have been made before my car.
It's almost the same... The two points you said (or implied / I misread) that I don't believe are accurate:
1. That someone without a reservation who ordered the same month as you could get their vehicle long before you. I guess it depends on your definition of long, but I basically said at most one production run, which is probably at most a month. (and shouldn't slip past April if you ordered in December with a premium reservation, which is a bit earlier than when you said summer).
2. Also clarified that assuming they don't slip into a production after of you, that those without a reservation would be at the end of the run after those with a reservation (assuming the run has room after all the ones with confirmed reservations are scheduled). Those without a reservation might not even get scheduled for the next production run, but you with a lower reservation (and early reservation date) will be scheduled on the next run...
 
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It is wholly consistent with the order NUMBERS being irrelevant. The key information missing as @jlauro mentions is if and when a reservation was made (and in what trim). Presumably this is an unreserved order since reservations seem to have the res#=order# and the reservations started in the 4k's. Methinks the dealer's source is guessing that enough reservations will be converted on time to push an unreserved order out until April.
Unless maybe they meant 30,000 instead of 3,000. In that case April may be realistic?
 

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My dealer told me he has a contact close with the manufacturing and that person has an order # in the 3000's and he is saying April 2021 delivery is realistic. :-(
No one in the public has reported reservation number below 10004xxx.

There are two order numbers involved. One is the same as reservation number. The other doesn't matter for delivery ETA.
 

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Ford says as much on their reservation page.

The bottom line is that Ford is giving early reservers a chance to get their car first, but Ford will not wait indefinitely and will fulfill a placed order in hand. They need to convert built cars into sold cars, and there is no reason to expect them to do otherwise.
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timbop

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It's almost the same... The two points you said (or implied / I misread) that I don't believe are accurate:
1. That someone without a reservation who ordered the same month as you could get their vehicle long before you. I guess it depends on your definition of long, but I basically said at most one production run, which is probably at most a month. (and shouldn't slip past April if you ordered in December with a premium reservation, which is a bit earlier than when you said summer).
2. Also clarified that assuming they don't slip into a production after of you, that those without a reservation would be at the end of the run after those with a reservation (assuming the run has room after all the ones with confirmed reservations are scheduled). Those without a reservation might not even get scheduled for the next production run, but you with a lower reservation (and early reservation date) will be scheduled on the next run...
here is what I said:
So, when I wait to place an order for my reservation (placed on 11/24/19) until November or December of 2020, there will be many with a reservation placed long after me who will have their cars long before me - including even some who didn't reserve but placed an order this month.
So someone who orders THIS MONTH without a reservation, or made a reservation AFTER me but ORDERED this month (ie long before I do in December) will get their car before me. Neither of us knows the batch sizes/frequency of scheduling, but we do know that they are scheduling the first batch in august - 4 months before my hypothetical order date. Even if the car ordered in July without a reservation isn't scheduled to be built until next February, they will not then push it back because I decided to place an order in December. Now it is possible that July-ordered car will not get scheduled during the first batch scheduling, but it is highly likely that more batches will be scheduled before I place my order in December - making it VERY likely IMO that the unreserved order will be built first.

This is just a guess, and the key point is that Ford SHOULD NOT push people back who place an order now in anticipation of my reservation being converted. Ford needs to keep things moving, and my lack of decision shouldn't delay anybody else who has committed to the car.
 

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This is just a guess, and the key point is that Ford SHOULD NOT push people back who place an order now in anticipation of my reservation being converted. Ford needs to keep things moving, and my lack of decision shouldn't delay anybody else who has committed to the car.
I think it all base on perspective. From the POV of the person with reservation, they would say whenever they convert to a order, they should go into the queue of the next production batch and they should be in from of the last min orders.

Lets play this out. Assuming the factory can produce 1000/week and each batch is 4 weeks worth. Most likely they grab the NEXT top 4,000 orders on the list. If you were to order WITHOUT a reservation and there are 10,000 orders. You are projected to be in the 3rd batch. BUT between now and then, another 3000 reservations get converted. The no reservation order will probably move back a batch. The list is constantly changing...its when the factory producing the batch and need to know what to produce that counts.
 

timbop

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I think it all base on perspective. From the POV of the person with reservation, they would say whenever they convert to a order, they should go into the queue of the next production batch and they should be in from of the last min orders.

Lets play this out. Assuming the factory can produce 1000/week and each batch is 4 weeks worth. Most likely they grab the NEXT top 4,000 orders on the list. If you were to order WITHOUT a reservation and there are 10,000 orders. You are projected to be in the 3rd batch. BUT between now and then, another 3000 reservations get converted. The no reservation order will probably move back a batch. The list is constantly changing...its when the factory producing the batch and need to know what to produce that counts.
Right- but a different batch size (say 3 months worth) would result in the unreserved order coming in the first batch. Its all a crap shoot considering we have no idea how the scheduling is done, but I am OK with (and even expect) my order being at a much later batch.
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