Getting Premium Delivered in 2020

[eager2own]

That's my concern too regarding an order deposit. However, I don't see how Ford could ask customers to place a non-refundable deposit on an order without being to assess production build quality, the user interface and drivability. I certainly wouldn't.

Of course, I don’t know how Ford will do this. By way of example though, the way that Tesla did the initial Model 3 deliveries was to allow folks to reserve with a fully refundable $1,000 deposit. However, when contacted later for final configuration of the vehicle, the customer did have to make a $2,500 deposit that was not refundable. For some early adopters (particularly those in states like SC, where Tesla doesn’t have a large presence) that could mean paying a non-refundable deposit on a car before seeing — let alone — test driving a Model 3.
But, again, that was Tesla and Ford may approach this differently.

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[dbsb3233]

I think -and hope! - that you’re wrong here. Ford Motor Norway unreservedly state on their web page that the FE model is to be produced in limited numbers «for delivery in 2020». If this is to be believed, I suppose most of the 30 000 (?) cars that are to be shipped to Europe come autumn 2000, will have to be FEs.

I may be reading that wrong, but if you meant that you expect 30,000 deliveries in 2020, I'd be surprised. 50,000 for model year 2021 likely means spread out over a year. Hard to say for sure since that Cuautitlan (Mexico) plant is quite large (capable of producing upwards of 15,000 vehicles/month), but seems more likely that they'd size the Mach-e production line to run year-round. For 50,000 total MMEs, that's probably something like 4000-5000 vehicles/mo.

I'd be surprised if more than maybe 10k-15k total MMEs arrived on dealer lots (worldwide) before Christmas. If even that (no major setbacks between now and then). But that's just my guess.

Ford is also embarking on unknown territory here in terms of demand. Even if they could crank out all 50,000 in 3 months, they probably want to make sure they're selling well month after month rather than getting too far ahead of themselves. Harder to predict demand for such a new and different vehicle compared to their previous experiences.

 

[dbsb3233]

This was an answer posted in another thread today, that might shed some light on the question...

Question: When will production of the Mach-E begin and when will the first vehicles be delivered?
Answer: Speaking of production....the presentation said explicitly that the first vehicle (Job #1) would be built on 20 June 2020, followed by first shipments in September, with delivers of First Editions in October/November 2020. This was in the UK but we were told there was no preference over European and USA orders. per BlackheathDigg

 

[eager2own]

50,000 for model year 2021 likely means spread out over a year.

Yes, articles speak of 50,000 in first production year and compare that to sales of other BEVs over a 12-month period. I don’t think that 50,000 volume should be read to mean ”in the 3 months of production in 2020.”

 

[jlauro]

Yes, articles speak of 50,000 in first production year and compare that to sales of other BEVs over a 12-month period. I don’t think that 50,000 volume should be read to mean ”in the 3 months of production in 2020.”

You are probably right, but it's all speculation, and we can be hopeful... That was originally said in 2019. The real question is when if the start of the 12 month period.

 

[dbsb3233]

You are probably right, but it's all speculation, and we can be hopeful... That was originally said in 2019. The real question is when if the start of the 12 month period.

I think the assumption is it means "model year", not calendar year. Which tends to be roughly mid-year to mid-year. But you're right, it's just speculation.

That does raise another point though... the 2022's could come along soon enough in 2021 to possibly still be eligible for the $7500 tax credit. Would probably be tight though.

 

[eager2own]

You are probably right, but it's all speculation, and we can be hopeful... That was originally said in 2019. The real question is when if the start of the 12 month period.

Of course anything can change. However, Ford’s CEO as recently as two weeks ago reiterated that the 2021 production year model will be capped at approximately 50,000 units... so I wouldn’t just write it off as just speculation.

 

[Billyk24]

I think the assumption is it means "model year", not calendar year. Which tends to be roughly mid-year to mid-year. But you're right, it's just speculation.

That does raise another point though... the 2022's could come along soon enough in 2021 to possibly still be eligible for the $7500 tax credit. Would probably be tight though.

In the USA I read somewhere that "next" years model can't be sold until April of the previous year. In other words, 2022 models can't be sold until April 2021. Does this mean Ford could produce 50,000 Mach E thru March 2021 and then reset the counter?

 

[dbsb3233]

In the USA I read somewhere that "next" years model can't be sold until April of the previous year. In other words, 2022 models can't be sold until April 2021. Does this mean Ford could produce 50,000 Mach E thru March 2021 and then reset the counter?

I suppose it's possible. But I doubt that's quite the way they'd do it. If the battery supply is the actual limiting factor (as we've been told), that's still the bottleneck that would determine the timing. In effect we have dual production lines (one in Mexico for the car, and another in Poland for the batteries).

If sales proved to be strong and they somehow were able to squeeze an extra 10,000 battery packs out of LG Chem sooner than expected, I expect they'd just crank out another 10,000 2021's and leave the timing of the 2022's on the normal track.

 

[JamieGeek]

In the USA I read somewhere that "next" years model can't be sold until April of the previous year. In other words, 2022 models can't be sold until April 2021. Does this mean Ford could produce 50,000 Mach E thru March 2021 and then reset the counter?

The 1997 F-150 first went on sale in January 1996.

 

[timbop]

I think the assumption is it means "model year", not calendar year. Which tends to be roughly mid-year to mid-year. But you're right, it's just speculation.

That does raise another point though... the 2022's could come along soon enough in 2021 to possibly still be eligible for the $7500 tax credit. Would probably be tight though.

The $7500 tax credit has nothing to do with "model year". The program is structured so that the $7500 is available to everyone who buys a BEV up until the end of the calendar quarter AFTER the calendar quarter in which the manufacturers sales reach 200k units. The last numbers I saw had ford at 116k in june 2019, with a bout a 1k/month run rate. Ford is coming out with new hybrids this spring so the run rate will likely increase, but I doubt that they would exceed 150k units by the time the first mach-e's start shipping. Assuming they hit a total of 200k BEV by next september (2021), the $7500 would still be available until dec 31 2021 - and if would be $3750 from jan 1 2022 to jun 30 2022.

 

[dbsb3233]

Oh I know. That's what I meant, that the first quarter of 2022's (sold in latter 2021) could possibly still make it in under the wire for the $7500. Probably be close.

 

[MadScientist]

Can’t help feeling that the longer the Coronavirus outbreak goes on for, the fewer cars we are going to see delivered in 2020. Already component supply chains are affecting Fiat and Hyundai car production. Almost all car production is dependent on Chinese parts of some sort (either directly or indirectly) so think an impact on the Mach-e is highly likely. Hope I’m wrong!

 

[Billyk24]

Can’t help feeling that the longer the Coronavirus outbreak goes on for, the fewer cars we are going to see delivered in 2020. Already component supply chains are affecting Fiat and Hyundai car production. Almost all car production is dependent on Chinese parts of some sort (either directly or indirectly) so think an impact on the Mach-e is highly likely. Hope I’m wrong!

I don't believe the Mach E is going to be severely delayed by the Coronavirus outbreak. Electric motors and drivetrain was developed in house (Ford), LG batteries are not from China. Software was developed in house, body parts not coming from China. Digital 15 inch touch screen maybe.

 

[Florida7382]

I don't believe the Mach E is going to be severely delayed by the Coronavirus outbreak. Electric motors and drivetrain was developed in house (Ford), LG batteries are not from China. Software was developed in house, body parts not coming from China. Digital 15 inch touch screen maybe.

Any source for body parts not coming from China? Just curious, thanks.

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