How long til all cars are all-electric?

Carsinmyblood

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praxiscat

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I would say the transition is going to happen faster than people think, but there will still be ICE cars around but they will be specialized or collectors products over time.
 

Scooby24

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Going to take a lot of people dying before that happens...they are that opposed to anything threatening oil and gas
 

murphy62

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My cars are already all electric. The only thing I have left that uses gasoline is a snow blower.
 


timbop

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Going to take a lot of people dying before that happens...they are that opposed to anything threatening oil and gas
THIS. The oil companies are adept at politicizing anything that threatens them, as well as 80 years of experience paying off "scientists" to publish papers that protect their interests. Some ICE vehicles will exist for a very long time; it might just be a few automakers like Toyota and Dodge, but they'll continue to supply ICE to every diehard they can find.

My cars are already all electric. The only thing I have left that uses gasoline is a snow blower.
Me too (except no snowblower), but we are very much in the minority.
 

TJ-Mach-e

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I am keeping an ICE in my garage until EV fast charging is acceptable for me. If I need to complete a journey that will be longer than the range of whichever EV I own then I will drive my ICE.
 

phidauex

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I think the better question is when 90% of road miles are driven with electricity. That could happen a lot sooner than 100% of cars, and is more desirable. If you convert trucking, taxis and people who commute long distances then you’d make a big improvement without having to replace the entire nations fleet.

Also, keep in mind the environmental cost of building any new car, gas or electric. If someone had a Corolla with 200k on it that runs well, and they drive it 2000 miles a year to see the grandkids, then it probably makes more cost and environmental sense to just keep it and run out it’s useful life rather than replace it with a brand new thing.
 

mwtechy

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I would think it depends on the country, also do you mean all manufactured cars or all cars still being used on the road? I read an article earlier this year claiming that it's estimated electric cars will be cheaper to produce than gas cars within the next decade, that's honestly the first major hurtle for consumers to consider it. Add to that things like solid state batteries (2nd hurdle is distance and charging time) you could probably see all new manufactured cars entirely electric within 20 years in most countries. My bet is 30 years and maybe 50 years before they are gone from the roads entirely. Besides, once governments realize regulating gas cars out of consumer's buying power can spur economic growth it'd probably be faster than that? Big oil/gas will always have a market until we figure out how to replace plastic and everything else we use hydrocarbons for with something else. Some of them have even started to realize they'll wind up being the next blockbuster if they don't start to change their business model today. Maybe they'll start to sell fusion reactors after governments get done throwing another trillion at R&D into it lol.
 
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Carsinmyblood

Carsinmyblood

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I get a grin out of the backwards nature of the 'up to $7,500' rebate. If you're getting $7,500 back, it means you had enough income to pay $7,500 in taxes and probably didn't need the rebate to buy a new EV.

Imagine a waitress getting $1,300 back if she buys a new $40K beginner EV. That's maybe 2 car payments out of 60....

They did it backwards. Perhaps some day they'll make it needs-based.
 

All Hat No Cattle

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How long til all cars are all-electric?
Ford says that 40% of their sales will be electric by 2030.

GM says they will be all electric by 2035. Here are the latest predictions.

Is Ford going all-electric by 2035?

General Motors has said it's aiming to produce only EVs by 2035, with 30 new plug-in models arriving by 2025, marking a $27-billion investment. Ford, which previously committed $22 billion to EV development, just announced that 40% of its vehicles will be electrified by 2030. Jun 13, 2021
Here is another question. What will be the price of gas in 2035? Are the oil companies going to cut back profits by keeping gas prices low?

That will be one determining factor. How important will 100 MPG/E vehicles become?

We will see. :)
 
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Carsinmyblood

Carsinmyblood

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What will be the price of gas in 2035? Are the oil companies going to cut back profits by keeping gas prices low?
I'd like to see oil company subsidies slashed and a need-based incentive established to encourage the switch to EV.
 

theo1000

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Some ICE vehicles will exist for a very long time; it might just be a few automakers like Toyota and Dodge, but they'll continue to supply ICE to every diehard they can.
I can see America being the last die hard country. The rest of the large population wealthy countries doesn't have much oil and has to import most of its oil. That is a large motivating factor for most of EU, China, Etc. The pollution thing is a neat little cherry on top. I think it can happen real quick once the cost advantage becomes big enough.

For the USA, the slow to change parts of the country, remember there are still parts on DC electric supply, knob &tube, oil/coal furnaces, will hang in there potentially for ever. There will always be a manufacturer or 2 to support them. There are still knob tube manufacturers after all.
 

dbsb3233

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I think the better question is when 90% of road miles are driven with electricity. That could happen a lot sooner than 100% of cars, and is more desirable. If you convert trucking, taxis and people who commute long distances then you’d make a big improvement without having to replace the entire nations fleet.

Also, keep in mind the environmental cost of building any new car, gas or electric. If someone had a Corolla with 200k on it that runs well, and they drive it 2000 miles a year to see the grandkids, then it probably makes more cost and environmental sense to just keep it and run out it’s useful life rather than replace it with a brand new thing.
Yep. I hate these 'purity' questions that set the target at 100%. The answer to that is probably never (in this century, anyway). But 90% is a more realistic measurement, that allows for the more extreme exceptions. Some things may never be practical for batteries. But most regular passenger vehicle probably will be within a handful of decades.

There's no need for purity anyway. As the saying goes, "Don't let the good be held hostage to the perfect". What matters is miles, and getting 80-90% of miles off ICE and onto electric will roll vehicle emissions back 60 years (probably more, since today's ICE cars are 10x cleaner). We still had like half the ICE cars on the roads at the height of the COVID lockdowns, and the air improved dramatically. Just imagine how much better it will be with a 90% reduction. Holding out for that last 10% is a fool's errand.

That's where PHEV can be very valuable too. As batteries get better, they not only improve BEV range, they improve PHEV range. Imagine a PHEV 5 years from now getting the first 50 miles on battery. That would put probably 80% of lifetime miles on battery. By the end of the decade, I could see a combination of BEV and PHEV being nearly all of the new passenger vehicle market. Especially if battery production struggles to keep up with demand. Putting 20 kWh each into 5 PHEVs will get a lot more collective miles on battery than one 100 kWh BEV.
 
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dbsb3233

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I can see America being the last die hard country. The rest of the large population wealthy countries doesn't have much oil and has to import most of its oil. That is a large motivating factor for most of EU, China, Etc. The pollution thing is a neat little cherry on top. I think it can happen real quick once the cost advantage becomes big enough.

For the USA, the slow to change parts of the country, remember there are still parts on DC electric supply, knob &tube, oil/coal furnaces, will hang in there potentially for ever. There will always be a manufacturer or 2 to support them. There are still knob tube manufacturers after all.
Remember too that we need crude oil for a lot more than just gasoline. Plastics, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, jet fuel, diesel for construction/ships/trains, etc are just some of the other byproducts of crude oil. A little less than half gets refined into gasoline. So even if gasoline demand drops to near zero, there's still a sizeable demand for crude oil for our domestic industry to supply. And natural gas will likely remain in high demand for much longer too, unaffected by EVs.
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