NCSolarFarmer
Member
- First Name
- Chris
- Joined
- May 23, 2021
- Threads
- 2
- Messages
- 12
- Reaction score
- 9
- Location
- central NC
- Vehicles
- Mach-E, Ram 2500 & 3500, old Leaf, Chrysler 300
- Thread starter
- #1
I realize a lot of Mach-E potential customers have been waiting a long time. It's May 25, 2021, six weeks until the end of 2021Q2. Ford's latest 10-Q (quarterly SEC filing) filed a few weeks ago, under "ITEM 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations", says (all emphasis is mine):
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
The automotive industry continues to face a significant shortage of semiconductors, which has presented challenges and production disruptions globally, including at our assembly plants. Our initial outlook was for semiconductor supply chains to remain constrained through the second quarter of 2021, and we would have an opportunity to begin recovering lost volumes in the second half of 2021. However, the industry faced another setback on March 19, 2021, when Renesas Electronics Corporation, a key supplier of semiconductors for the automotive industry, experienced a significant fire at its Naka Factory. Renesas estimates that it will return to full capacity at its Naka Factory in July. Based on the overall recovery rate we are seeing for the industry, we now believe the automotive semiconductor shortage may not be fully resolved until 2022. For additional information regarding the semiconductor shortage, see the Outlook section on page 56.
Then, on page 56,
In February 2021, we estimated that there was the potential for an adverse impact of 10% to 20% on our volume for the first half of 2021 due to the growing semiconductor shortage. Further, we believed that the risk had the potential to reduce our original full-year guidance, which was to deliver adjusted EBIT of $8 billion to $9 billion, by $1 billion to $2.5 billion, net of recoveries and some production make-up in the second half of the year. Including the impact of the fire at Renesas, we now expect to lose about 50% of our planned production in the second quarter of 2021, an increase from the 17% loss in the first quarter of 2021. The second quarter is expected to be the trough for our performance this year. For the second half of 2021, we expect to lose about 10% of our planned production.
Well, 24 weeks out is mid 2021Q4. Is that realistic? I'm not sure. One dealer I talked to said of the chip shortage priority (I'm paraphrasing): 'chip deliveries goes to other vehicles (like the F-150), not the Mach-E. '
Ford expects to make 50,000 Mach-E cars in 2021. If we assume 50% are delivered outside the US and that each Ford dealership (7500 globally) retains one car on average, there would be only 17,500 Mach-E deliveries to US customers in 2021. So I expect delivery for my order that I placed a few days ago to, in reality, be in the first part of 2022, maybe the first half of 2022.
I guess this is why dealers are adding $5,000 to the price. They can and they know it. Not that this practice is right, but dealers need to make money to exist.
I was going to say this is not a good new product roll-out by Ford. But in the EV space, I think it's par for the course. I'm not complaining, just pointing out reality.
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
The automotive industry continues to face a significant shortage of semiconductors, which has presented challenges and production disruptions globally, including at our assembly plants. Our initial outlook was for semiconductor supply chains to remain constrained through the second quarter of 2021, and we would have an opportunity to begin recovering lost volumes in the second half of 2021. However, the industry faced another setback on March 19, 2021, when Renesas Electronics Corporation, a key supplier of semiconductors for the automotive industry, experienced a significant fire at its Naka Factory. Renesas estimates that it will return to full capacity at its Naka Factory in July. Based on the overall recovery rate we are seeing for the industry, we now believe the automotive semiconductor shortage may not be fully resolved until 2022. For additional information regarding the semiconductor shortage, see the Outlook section on page 56.
Then, on page 56,
In February 2021, we estimated that there was the potential for an adverse impact of 10% to 20% on our volume for the first half of 2021 due to the growing semiconductor shortage. Further, we believed that the risk had the potential to reduce our original full-year guidance, which was to deliver adjusted EBIT of $8 billion to $9 billion, by $1 billion to $2.5 billion, net of recoveries and some production make-up in the second half of the year. Including the impact of the fire at Renesas, we now expect to lose about 50% of our planned production in the second quarter of 2021, an increase from the 17% loss in the first quarter of 2021. The second quarter is expected to be the trough for our performance this year. For the second half of 2021, we expect to lose about 10% of our planned production.
Well, 24 weeks out is mid 2021Q4. Is that realistic? I'm not sure. One dealer I talked to said of the chip shortage priority (I'm paraphrasing): 'chip deliveries goes to other vehicles (like the F-150), not the Mach-E. '
Ford expects to make 50,000 Mach-E cars in 2021. If we assume 50% are delivered outside the US and that each Ford dealership (7500 globally) retains one car on average, there would be only 17,500 Mach-E deliveries to US customers in 2021. So I expect delivery for my order that I placed a few days ago to, in reality, be in the first part of 2022, maybe the first half of 2022.
I guess this is why dealers are adding $5,000 to the price. They can and they know it. Not that this practice is right, but dealers need to make money to exist.
I was going to say this is not a good new product roll-out by Ford. But in the EV space, I think it's par for the course. I'm not complaining, just pointing out reality.
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