It's only my opinion. Not based on any FACTS

portlandg

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I am sitting at home not working with plenty of time on my hands. This is primarily for us in UK but some of what I say may be significant to those of you in the US.
According to the Ford (US) website the Select and GT versions of the Mach e are preorderable but have always stated that they are not available until 2021. Going by what has been said on this forum it would seem quite a few have been preordered but we don't know firm numbers. California Route 1 is the same but I don't recall seeing anyone on here saying the have preordered one. I am sure I will hear to the contrary if this assumption is wrong. The First Editions were available both in US and Europe to preorder and it would seem that they were 'sold out' by the end of November. Once again we don't have exact numbers. I did hear varying estimates, some said 1500 in Europe, some said 1500 in UK. I would guess the former with possibly the same number in the US.
Now that just leaves the Premium. I think we can safely say that this is the same model in both markets with different level of specs so it is easier to stick with the one name. Someone on here said that the thought that the first 4000 cars to come of the production line would be for Corporate,staff and possibly dealer demonstraters. Ford would have to provide some for crash testing as well. Don't know whether these would be included in this number or not.
Now for the purely guess work. We have been told that Ford intend on producing 50000 in the first production year. Would like to know what the timescale of 'production year' is but depending on where you look, a car can come to the end of a production line between every 30 secs/2 mins. Allowing for 2 x 8 hour shifts per day for 5 days a week this would mean when at full speed Ford could make, in theory, approx 900 Mach e's a day. Therefore the full production run could therefore only take 55 days. A bit unrealistic I think but there you are. Anyway, if you take of the 4000 that leaves 46000. Guesstimate the Select, GT and CR1, 5000 and First Editions, 4000 that leaves 37000 for the Premium. When production starts one would assume that the corporate,staff and dealer demos will be made first and then First Editions to be shipped. The next ones in production would then be the Premiums.
If the launch is to be the same time in both Europe and the US then the delivery logistics get complicated. On a direct route from Mexico, (Altamira or Veracruz) to UK can take about 30 days. On a scheduled round robin route, which could possibly include US ports, can take up to 60+ days. So, to get any cars into the UK, (for those of you in the rest of Europe I apologise) for an October launch the vehicle carrier would need to leave Mexico at the beginning of September at the latest or beginning of August at the earliest depending on the route taken. Once demos and First Editions have been delivered on launch day the Premiums will hopefully be on their way.
Now crunch time. For this to happen my thoughts are that Ford would need to reopen tha Cuautalin plant and start production by the end of June. 🤞🤞

As I said earlier, this is purely fiction. It is not based on any facts, apart from the shipping journey times so is only meant to be a subject for discussion (or ridicule if that is what floats your boat). Until information comes my way to the contrary I am still expecting my ER RWD Mach e sometime in November.

Now I hope that all on here are keeping well and if there any Ford employees (especially any from Mach e teams) lurking undercover stay safe and well and keep up the good work.

My next wish is that this dreadful situation resolves itself soon so that I can get back to work so I haven't got time to write this awful drivel
 

LYTMCQ

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With a limited run of 50,000 what will be the model split? I think they have 60,000 orders so they could match the percentage to the existing orders even if a lot o people cancel due to the economy, they know what is the desired product mix.
 

hybrid2bev

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With a limited run of 50,000 what will be the model split? I think they have 60,000 orders so they could match the percentage to the existing orders even if a lot o people cancel due to the economy, they know what is the desired product mix.
My guess for model split would be like this.

GT: 29%
Premium: 27%
Select: 31%
Route 1: 10%
First Edition: 3%

About a third each for GT, Select and Premium. Slightly more of the lower cost Select than Premium. Then fill in the rest with Rt1 and FE.
 

eager2own

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My guess for model split would be like this.

GT: 29%
Premium: 27%
Select: 31%
Route 1: 10%
First Edition: 3%

About a third each for GT, Select and Premium. Slightly more of the lower cost Select than Premium. Then fill in the rest with Rt1 and FE.
That aligns with Ford's disclosure that approximately 30% of pre-orders are for the GT.
 

SJ_Okay

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Does anyone know much about vehicle production lines? I’m wondering if they are able to manufacture left and right hand drives simultaneously or do they need their own run?
 
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portlandg

portlandg

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Does anyone know much about vehicle production lines? I’m wondering if they are able to manufacture left and right hand drives simultaneously or do they need their own run?
As far as I am aware LHD & RHD drive can be done on the same line. Some lines can accommodate different models on the same line. Valencia plant springs to mind.
 

dbsb3233

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Therefore the full production run could therefore only take 55 days.
My guess is that they plan to spread production out to run year-round, not compress it into just a couple of months. I haven't heard of any other models being planned (yet) for that Cuautalin plant. And you generally don't want to hire hundreds (thousands?) of employees for a few months' work then just let them all go a few months later.

So it seems logical that they right-size the production lines (and staff) to build somewhere in the neighborhood of 5000/mo (give or take). Just my guess. Maybe a bit more since they'll probably be a few months behind.

Presumably the first few thousand (4000 has been speculated) of the actual production models will be designated as the test drive models and for other internal purposes. So roughly the first months' production. I think we heard the original production run was expected to start in June. Figure probably a 1-2 month delay on that now (it's not just the Cuautalin plant, but the batteries from Poland, and various parts from all over the world that all have to make it there). I'm guessing the first vehicles for sale at dealerships to be trickling in maybe November, and maybe up to full pace by Dec/Jan.

Again, just my guess. That's if the world is 90% functional again by June.
 

Ken7

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As far as I am aware LHD & RHD drive can be done on the same line. Some lines can accommodate different models on the same line. Valencia plant springs to mind.
I think they have to flip the building over and then they can switch. ;)
 

Wonky_Donkey

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I think (read hope) your shipping times may be a bit overestimated.

I'm basing this on the fact that I've done a few transatlantic trips on cruise ships doing approx 20knots - and they can do that trip in 6 days.

Car carrier ships like Procyon Leader which are commonly used to ship cars on long distance sea trips can do anything from 12-19knots - so being generous and saying they are only half the speed of a cruise ship still only makes it a 12 day journey from Mexico to Southampton (or whichever UK port is used)

Due to export & customs it is very very unlikely that the same ship that has USA cars will also have Euro cars on it (that's one of the main reasons they are building Mach-E in Mexico is because of the trade agreements between Mexico & EU are way more favourable than US / EU tariffs) - so I would expect a direct Mexico to Europe trip.

The big question is how many EU ports will said car carrier stop at on route to UK. A car transporter will normally be in/out of a port in 1 day - so that could add a tiny bit of a delay depending on route/schedule.

My guess would be 18-20 days maximum as an end-to-end shipping estimate.

I would also assume - and it is just an assumption - that production of RHD vehicles would be batched to make efficiencies on the line rather than mixing and matching. But the million dollar question is when that might happen, and will they take shipping times into consideration. They *could* make those earlier as they have to be shipped further, and then make US models after because they can get them to dealers quicker. That way they launch in USA and EU at the same time as advertised.

Just my random thoughts :p
 
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KT-PNW

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I’d tack on another 5 days for rail transportation from the plant to the port and loading/unloading. Then there’s customs, port to dealer transportation, etc.
 
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portlandg

portlandg

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I think (read hope) your shipping times may be a bit overestimated.

I'm basing this on the fact that I've done a few transatlantic trips on cruise ships doing approx 20knots - and they can do that trip in 6 days.

Car carrier ships like Procyon Leader which are commonly used to ship cars on long distance sea trips can do anything from 12-19knots - so being generous and saying they are only half the speed of a cruise ship still only makes it a 12 day journey from Mexico to Southampton (or whichever UK port is used)

Due to export & customs it is very very unlikely that the same ship that has USA cars will also have Euro cars on it (that's one of the main reasons they are building Mach-E in Mexico is because of the trade agreements between Mexico & EU are way more favourable than US / EU tariffs) - so I would expect a direct Mexico to Europe trip.

The big question is how many EU ports will said car carrier stop at on route to UK. A car transporter will normally be in/out of a port in 1 day - so that could add a tiny bit of a delay depending on route/schedule.

My guess would be 18-20 days maximum as an end-to-end shipping estimate.

I would also assume - and it is just an assumption - that production of RHD vehicles would be batched to make efficiencies on the line rather than mixing and matching. But the million dollar question is when that might happen, and will they take shipping times into consideration. They *could* make those earlier as they have to be shipped further, and then make US models after because they can get them to dealers quicker. That way they launch in USA and EU at the same time as advertised.

Just my random thoughts :p
Got the journey times from shipping companies schedules
 

SD_Solar

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The delivery times for the US market should be quite short.

The Mexico plant is actually fairly close to many US cities and
even a Los Angeles delivery is only 1800 miles, which is about
500 miles less than a delivery of a car or truck from a Detroit plant.
 

SJ_Okay

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I would also assume - and it is just an assumption - that production of RHD vehicles would be batched to make efficiencies on the line rather than mixing and matching. But the million dollar question is when that might happen, and will they take shipping times into consideration. They *could* make those earlier as they have to be shipped further, and then make US models after because they can get them to dealers quicker. That way they launch in USA and EU at the same time as advertised.
This was how I thought it might pan out on a production line, and wondered to myself where the RHDs would fit into the schedule.
 

jlauro

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My guess for model split would be like this.

GT: 29%
Premium: 27%
Select: 31%
Route 1: 10%
First Edition: 3%

About a third each for GT, Select and Premium. Slightly more of the lower cost Select than Premium. Then fill in the rest with Rt1 and FE.
I think your guess on the select option is high. It's not available wth the long range battery, and based on https://www.engadget.com/2019-12-31-mustang-mach-e.html 80% have opted for the long range. Of course this 80% was earlier in the ordering, and maybe later orders shifted more toward lower cost.
 
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