Limited supply of automotive-grade lithium

Petter

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"Ford plans to boost sales of full-electric vehicles to a third of overall sales by 2030, up from zero today. Volkswagen, making a major bet on electric vehicles in the wake of its diesel-emissions cheating scandal, says about 15% of sales will be all electric by 2025", according to this article. This would, naturally require a substantial number of batteries. Concerning the Mustang Mach-E Ford has stated thar "sales volumes will be limited to about 50,000 globally the first year due to battery supply."

I have listened to a podcast called CleanTech Talk in which Roger Atkins shares some very interesting information about the supply of what he calls "Automotive-grade lithium". I suppose that the availability of this will be vastly important for e.g. Ford and VW reaching their targets.

Atkins claims to have information saying that "the most electric vehicle share possible by 2025 would be only 7% of the global automotive market". This was new to me. Here it is with a little more context (they also talk about the Mustang Mach-E):

"As Roger explained early in the podcast, “necessity is the mother of invention.” Have an issue that needs to be resolved? Creative people will come up with a solution. That is why electric vehicles have become a primary focus in the wake of increasing global challenges with city congestion and pollution, Roger said.

But while electric vehicles have proven to be promising solutions to these clear and immediate challenges, Roger worries about the lithium mining supply chain. He believes that due to a limited supply of automotive-grade lithium, the most electric vehicle share possible by 2025 would be only 7% of the global automotive market. This is what Roger picked up recently at a Benchmark Materials conference from a top lithium expert (“Lithium Joe,” who is reportedly the world’s leading authority on lithium supply), and it goes against Roger’s previous viewpoint on the topic. Even though there is currently an overflow in lithium, Roger explains that the future will prove difficult. It is not about whether or not we have lithium, he said — it is about whether that lithium is high enough quality for safe batteries.


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Keeping in mind the challenge of lithium-ion batteries, Zach and Roger move on to discuss current industry players who are making big steps into the electric vehicle sector. They talk briefly about Ford’s investment in Rivian and Ford’s efforts to jump into the electric vehicle world through the Ford Electric Mach-E. But the foray into electric vehicles is no easy feat for established automotive companies. There is a huge challenge to profitability, Roger explains, as sunk costs and investment for research and development to transition into electric vehicles can combine to be crippling to a company. He believes, however, that working together with new electric vehicle companies, as Ford has done with Rivian, can give more established industry players a leg up."

Link: https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/0...hat-lithium-ev-forecasts-ford-mustang-mach-e/
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dbsb3233

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Ironically, it's got some parallels to ICE vehicles and the supply of oil. We've heard the same scares about "Peak Oil" since the 1970's that turned out to be wrong. As technology improved and methods of extraction improved, they got better at finding more that wasn't previously known.

I suspect lithium will be similar. If demand remains high, we'll likely see more exploration for it and more sources found. But it can be a bumpy ride getting there, with fluctuating prices.

https://www.spglobal.com/en/researc...ly-is-set-to-triple-by-2025-will-it-be-enough
 
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hybrid2bev

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Remember that lithium is not the only way to make batteries. There are other battery chemistries in the works that don’t use lithium and are more energy dense, charge faster and last for more cycles. I think we could see some new tech sooner than expected.
 

dbsb3233

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Remember that lithium is not the only way to make batteries. There are other battery chemistries in the works that don’t use lithium and are more energy dense, charge faster and last for more cycles. I think we could see some new tech sooner than expected.
Graphene batteries are supposed to be the "next big thing". But probably still years away, if they materialize at all. That's really the issue with most of these technologies -- they're often "next decade" stuff, as it takes a long time to get from drawing board to mass production on the scale to build them for millions of vehicles.
 


dbsb3233

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hybrid2bev

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dbsb3233

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I think to Petter’s point. You can make all of the battery factories you want, but you still need the raw materials to actually make the batteries.
Oh absolutely. And we may very well see fights for those materials. And delays in models coming out as a result.
 

Wonky_Donkey

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This not necessarily linked to Mach-E production - but in relation to battery manufacture and assembly.....

Ford earlier this year announced a €24 million investment to support the company’s electrification strategy with a state-of-the-art battery assembly facility at its manufacturing plant in Valencia, Spain.

Two new assembly lines will enable the advanced lithium-ion batteries that help power the all-new Kuga Plug-In Hybrid, all-new Kuga Hybrid, and new S-MAX Hybrid and Galaxy Hybrid to be produced alongside the vehicles for greater manufacturing efficiency and sustainability. The new facility will begin production in September this year.

That's taken from the Ford Go Electric Press release dated 13 Feb 2020 (full version attached)
 

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Mopey

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I think to Petter’s point. You can make all of the battery factories you want, but you still need the raw materials to actually make the batteries.
Never underestimate the free market's ability to adjust to demand. In Nevada, in 2022, a new Lithium mine is opening and it can supply 25% of the world demand for almost 50 years. It's not a pipe dream, or a "some day", it's under development now. And that's just one project.

https://www.nnbw.com/news/1-3-billion-lithium-mining-project-takes-shape-in-rural-northern-nevada/
 
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timbop

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Never underestimate the free market's ability to adjust to demand
And that is why I fully expect battery prices to stabilize and potentially even rise for a while - as demand significantly increases.
 
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Petter

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