Mach-e and the Future of Battery Technology

[Colorado Native]

The relative simplicity of a BEV suggests that it could last a long time. However, my concern with buying any BEV at the moment is how quickly battery technology is going to change over the next few years. A solid-state lithium battery with twice the capacity for the same weight (or the same capacity for half the weight) is but a few years away. Sandy Munro says two years, others say five.

I would feel much better if there was an official upgrade path for the battery. A battery pack swap and a software upgrade seems like the solution. In 5 years I would like to take the car and maybe $10,000 into the dealership and get back a refreshed Mach-E — safer, lighter and with more capacity.

The good news is that Ford has strong support from after-market companies, so that's also a possibility, but I believe Ford would have to be involved, since so much of the car's tech is dedicated to managing the battery.

What's the chance Ford will take care of us early adopters?

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[timbop]

A few thoughts:

• When something else comes out, your current car won't stop working
• There has been a cottage industry of aftermarket components for Mustangs for decades. I expect that will continue
• Ford execs have said many times that they want the Mach E to be a continuous source of revenue rather than just "buy it now and we hope you buy another car from us in 6 years". That could be good or bad depending on what they do, but they explicitly have designed the battery packs to be removable from underneath. If there's an opportunity for Ford to make money off of it, I would expect them to do so.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

A few thoughts:

• When something else comes out, your current car won't stop working
• There has been a cottage industry of aftermarket components for Mustangs for decades. I expect that will continue
• Ford execs have said many times that they want the Mach E to be a continuous source of revenue rather than just "buy it now and we hope you buy another car from us in 6 years". That could be good or bad depending on what they do, but they explicitly have designed the battery packs to be removable from underneath. If there's an opportunity for Ford to make money off of it, I would expect them to do so.

As long as Ford doesn't decide to model its MME continuing revenue stream after Electonic Arts continuing revenue stream disaster, we'll be ok.

 

[DBC]

The relative simplicity of a BEV suggests that it could last a long time. However, my concern with buying any BEV at the moment is how quickly battery technology is going to change over the next few years. A solid-state lithium battery with twice the capacity for the same weight (or the same capacity for half the weight) is but a few years away. Sandy Munro says two years, others say five.

The short answer is: Ford Options. It lowers your payments and lets you bail after three or four years -- your choice.

The longer answer is that there won't be any battery cells with twice the energy density in two years. Maybe not even five. Batteries have been improving by about 8% a year and no reason to doubt that won't continue.

That doesn't mean, however, that later BEVs won't be better. Some very interesting developments at the pack level as well as at the charging level. Once you get to 300 miles or so, given that we're seeing a fairly robust 350 kW charging network, the charging rate is more important than the energy density.

With multiple vehicles my expectation is that the MME gets cycled. When a BEV of similar size is released with 300-350 miles of range and a DC charge rate of 300 kW, that vehicle will go on road trips and MME will become the "local driver". In that role it will get me from Point A to Point B just like it did before.

Note that this doesn't just happen with BEVs. All new models should be better and offer new tech. Otherwise what is the point?

 

[Colorado Native]

Other than the battery, this vehicle has the potential to last much longer than the average ICE car.

Yes, the battery won't fail the day solid state batteries become widely available. It should still be a nice car, but with a significantly lower resale value as well as being heavier and requiring more frequent and longer charge sessions than the new solid state BEVs.

I usually own vehicles for the long term - typically 10 or more years. Neither leasing nor Ford Options are appealing to me - you're just buying the option to walk away in a few years without a car and without all that money.

I'm exploring a third option: keeping the car a long time while upgrading the one piece of technology that is most likely to make the car obsolete.

 

[SnBGC]

Other than the battery, this vehicle has the potential to last much longer than the average ICE car.

Yes, the battery won't fail the day solid state batteries become widely available. It should still be a nice car, but with a significantly lower resale value as well as being heavier and requiring more frequent and longer charge sessions than the new solid state BEVs.

I usually own vehicles for the long term - typically 10 or more years. Neither leasing nor Ford Options are appealing to me - you're just buying the option to walk away in a few years without a car and without all that money.

I'm exploring a third option: keeping the car a long time while upgrading the one piece of technology that is most likely to make the car obsolete.

The most likely scenario is the HV battery will never be replaced with an upgraded unit.

As demand for new EVs becomes more common, so will demand for used EVs. Even used, I think the MME value is going to be pretty healthy.

 

[Colorado Native]

The most likely scenario is the HV battery will never be replaced with an upgraded unit.

Sadly, I Agree.

As demand for new EVs becomes more common, so will demand for used EVs. Even used, I think the MME value is going to be pretty healthy.

Let us hope.

 

[Illinibird]

The short answer is: Ford Options. It lowers your payments and lets you bail after three or four years -- your choice.

The longer answer is that there won't be any battery cells with twice the energy density in two years. Maybe not even five. Batteries have been improving by about 8% a year and no reason to doubt that won't continue.

That doesn't mean, however, that later BEVs won't be better. Some very interesting developments at the pack level as well as at the charging level. Once you get to 300 miles or so, given that we're seeing a fairly robust 350 kW charging network, the charging rate is more important than the energy density.

With multiple vehicles my expectation is that the MME gets cycled. When a BEV of similar size is released with 300-350 miles of range and a DC charge rate of 300 kW, that vehicle will go on road trips and MME will become the "local driver". In that role it will get me from Point A to Point B just like it did before.

Note that this doesn't just happen with BEVs. All new models should be better and offer new tech. Otherwise what is the point?

That’s what I envision now. My MME will be my daily drive around home and within it’s capacity my local drive (to my daughters house in Sycamore). It will NOT, however, be my drive to see my other daughter in Palm City FL. My ICE car (Acura) will do that. I can’t see that changing in my lifetime but who knows; we have Operation Warp Speed and a vaccine for our current pandemic and most said this was impossible except our president.

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