Mach E May be bad news for Tesla Investors - Business Insider

BlueMach

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We should want all EVs to succeed. I don't think, as much as I love Mach-E, that with as small a volume as Mach-E will be that it will significantly threaten either Tesla's stock or boost Ford's. It's just not that much value in relation to the rest of the company.

Even if Ford sells 50,000 Mach-Es in the US alone (and we know it can't based on Ford's statements about only having 50,000 batteries/year and we know those are shared with European exports), that would still be less than 3% of their US sales. That is just not enough to rationally move a stock price, but as we've seen with Tesla's stock, maybe investors aren't very rational anymore.

Ford's business is F-Series. They're really the F-Series Motor Company, if we're honest about where the profits come from. The F-Series business is worth more on its own than the Ford Motor Company as a whole is.

Mach-E is where Ford's EV journey starts, but I don't see enough on the roadmap to think TSLA investors will suddenly switch over, but that's not a bad thing.

There's no reason for Ford to significantly care about their stock price, IMO. The family holds 40% of the vote, they're essentially takeover-proof.
 
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jhalkias

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We should want all EVs to succeed.
I think the point of the article is that Tesla is overvalued and Ford has room to grow their stock price.
I don’t think it means we don’t want EV’s to succeed.
 

BlueMach

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I think the point of the article is that Tesla is overvalued and Ford has room to grow their stock price.
I don’t think it means we don’t want EV’s to succeed.
Ford definitely has room to grow their stock price, I don't think that's a super controversial view. I just don't think the Mach-E is gonna do it. It's a small drop in the vast ocean that is Ford. Even if Mach-E was as insanely profitable as Expedition is (it isn't), it's still 1/2 the volume, and we didn't see the new Expedition juice Ford's stock price despite being a massive success.

Ford isn't gonna see a startup-like exponential valuation increase no matter what they do. Big ships don't turn that fast to chase investor trends.
 

GoGoGadgetMachE

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I think the point of the article is that Tesla is overvalued and Ford has room to grow their stock price.
I don’t think it means we don’t want EV’s to succeed.
Wait, are you saying the market cap of Tesla being roughly 24 times that of Ford, which sells more just F-Series than Tesla sells total vehicles, is irrational?

Huh.
 

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I am excited by the number of Amazon branded Transits delivering packages daily in my neighborhood. Excited because I see less of other carriers without a commitment to decrease CO2 and I know these will soon be electric. Clearly a part of Amazon’s strategy to decrease CO2. And I don’t like much of anything Amazon does.
 
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jhalkias

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Ford definitely has room to grow their stock price, I don't think that's a super controversial view. I just don't think the Mach-E is gonna do it. It's a small drop in the vast ocean that is Ford. Even if Mach-E was as insanely profitable as Expedition is (it isn't), it's still 1/2 the volume, and we didn't see the new Expedition juice Ford's stock price despite being a massive success.

Ford isn't gonna see a startup-like exponential valuation increase no matter what they do. Big ships don't turn that fast to chase investor trends.
Also, while the article leads with the Mach E, it also talks about VW. Lots of new EV’s this year and shrinking credits for Tesla is not a positive portend for the stock.
 

DBC

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Wait, are you saying the market cap of Tesla being roughly 24 times that of Ford, which sells more just F-Series than Tesla sells total vehicles, is irrational
As arguably the greatest investor of all times noted, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
 

BlueMach

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Also, while the article leads with the Mach E, it also talks about VW. Lots of new EV’s this year and shrinking credits for Tesla is not a positive portend for the stock.
Happily there's still huge room to grow for all EV players. VW and Ford selling the crap out of ID.4 and Mach-E shouldn't impact Tesla at all, right now all BEVs except maybe the Leaf and Bolt are supply constrained globally, with waiting lists in many markets.
 

phidauex

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I certainly hope Tesla and all the others succeed, the market needs more EVs in general. That said, Tesla stock seems very overvalued right now. I will likely be paying for my entire MachE with Tesla stock gains from the last 18 months... Curious irony there.
 

SashaLondon

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If it became Fords best selling car worldwide then maybe.
 

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