New ICE vehicles to be banned in the UK from 2035

phila

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Leasing of cars has become a huge thing in this country whether they are ICE or BEV now due to the uncertainty of things and that will continue that way. But there are many questions around BEVs and their incentives as well as by the end of this year the current incentive of no VAT on all BEVs is up for renewal and many are thinking this will be cut somehow as well. VAT in Norway on almost everything is a whopping 25% which makes it still manageable for most to afford an electric car. If that incentive disappears then all new cars will suddenly get at most a 25% price increase with the change to the new year. That is also why I am desperately hoping for a 2020 delivery of my MachE as I actually plan on buying this one.
 

dbsb3233

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I can't figure out if that'll make fossils more valuable or less once the ban is in place. Intuitively, I would think less but people do strange things.
The general laws of market pricing and supply-demand suggest that oil prices will fall as gasoline demand gradually gets displaced by BEVs. Which of course then props up demand for ICE vehicles as gas prices stay low. A bit of a Catch-22.

But that's only at the margin. Oil prices can only fall so far and stay low for so long before they drop below the cost-to-produce, causing production to fall. Meanwhile, residential electricity rates should stay well below gasoline on a $ per mile basis. So that should continue to be a selling point that will push (home-charge) BEV sales to make further inroads for years to come.

But I still believe that will only go so far. That fuel price advantage usually shrinks (or even reverses) at retail charging stations. And the well-documented challenges for distance driving remain. I'm still expecting around a 30% market share target for BEVs in the US (until the batteries make another quantum leap). But in parts of the world where the geography doesn't lend itself to distance driving, or where the governments are far more controlling, I expect that ceiling is much higher.

Of course that could all change with the next quantum leap in battery technology, the advance of new technologies like fuel cells, the advent of autonomous taxi services seriously displacing personal car ownership, etc.
 

TheSteelRider

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As others have said, far off targets are rarely actually achieved as originally planned. To borrow from a famous general: "no plan survives first contact with the enemy". In this case the enemy isn't the car manufacturers but big oil, and they are a formidable enemy. Exxon, BP, et al aren't necessarily worried about small markets like Norway and Hawaii (other than them setting precedents), but rest assured they will bring all of their dirty tricks to prevent the widespread banning of fossil fuels. Miami Florida is constantly inundated with floods now due to rising tides, and state officials were banned from using the phrase "climate change".
So, I've read here and there online (we all know everything on the internet is true) that "Big Oil" is heavily pushing plastics and has a strategic goal to plasticize more materials into our lives. Think, building materials, etc.

In sort of a weird conclusion, I have personally come to believe that BEVs will not in any way slow down or impact Big Oil in any significant way. There is too much easy money to be made to simply close shop and go home. Just try to think, for a moment, the asset value alone of only the oil rigs, pipelines, and infrastructure. It is a mind-boggling amount of money tied up in those assets.
 

dbsb3233

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So, I've read here and there online (we all know everything on the internet is true) that "Big Oil" is heavily pushing plastics and has a strategic goal to plasticize more materials into our lives. Think, building materials, etc.

In sort of a weird conclusion, I have personally come to believe that BEVs will not in any way slow down or impact Big Oil in any significant way. There is too much easy money to be made to simply close shop and go home. Just try to think, for a moment, the asset value alone of only the oil rigs, pipelines, and infrastructure. It is a mind-boggling amount of money tied up in those assets.
46% of oil goes into creating gasoline, so they'll never be able to replace all of that demand (not that gasoline will totally go away either, of course), but it is amazing how many things are made from oil. The industry may shrink some in coming decades but it'll be here for centuries.

Here's a partial list...

https://www.thoughtco.com/petrochemicals-and-petroleum-products-603558
https://www.innovativewealth.com/in...ucts-made-from-petroleum-outside-of-gasoline/
 

buzznwood

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From the UK perspective the motorist has always been an easy target for the government no matter which coloured rosette happens to hold power. The amount of transportation that would need to be electrified the world over means the oil industry will be around for a very long time, the world has moved beyond clipper ships.
 
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