New ICE vehicles to be banned in the UK from 2035

Gforcemurphy

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51366123

Quite an ambitious target. A lot of work will have to be done on the charging infrastructure, it's woefully fragmented at present.
For what it’s worth, the current Irish government is planning the same ban by 2030. Also, to have the vast majority of cars on the roads to be BEVs or PHEVs, by that time. They’ll likely tax the s**e out of diesel cars in the meantime.

Considered by most to be ridiculously ambitious. Particularly when we’re slower than most to get our own infrastructure up and running, and we’re hardly top of car manufacturers’ priorities as a small market, when it comes to rolling out new models.

I’m still waiting on the ford.ie site to make the ordering process for the Mach E live! ?
 

silverelan

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Really glad to see this! It's cool to see so many countries who have put bans on their calendar. It'll definitely have an interesting effect on the used car market and I think there are some implications for the gas station industry.

If anybody has any interest, take some time to watch Tony Seba's presentation on disruption in the transportation industry to get a sense of what is going on and where we might be going.

 

dbsb3233

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51366123

Quite an ambitious target. A lot of work will have to be done on the charging infrastructure, it's woefully fragmented at present.
Frankly, far-off announcements like this are little more than hot air. They set a preferred direction, but reality will determine what actually happens as those "deadlines" get closer.

Granted though, if anywhere has a chance of going all BEV, it's an island. Not a lot of 1000 mile road trips in the UK. Ireland in particular is a good fit, as it's only about 300 miles end-to-end.

By 2035, autonomous Uber-like taxi services will probably displace a lot of personal car ownership anyway.
 

silverelan

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Except it doesn't take much to move markets in big ways with far reaching implications.

The US, Germany and Japan will be the last ones to ban old style fossil cars but for countries with little to no incumbent auto manufacturing industry, they'll happily ban new gas car sales.

One possibility is we'll see the dateline being irrelevant as people make anticipatory changes ahead of the ban. So fossil car sales collapse years ahead of the ban deadline.
 


dbsb3233

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I doubt hardly any major countries (outside of maybe a few small ones) will truly "ban" all ICE vehicles when those deadlines get close. But they might for selective segments. Smaller sedans, for instance. And I could see some requiring PHEV to replace full ICE for certain segments too.

As you say, the free market will drive most of what really happens. More people will migrate toward BEVs as their local commute vehicle, simply because it's a great fit in the right situation. How batteries improve, and how other new alternatives develop, will determine when full ICE replacement takes place. Still a long way from that for many segments now.
 

JamieGeek

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Well the first test will be Norway since their ICE ban is only 5 years away: 2025.
Granted their market is already very heavily BEV weighted: close to 40% of Norway's market is EVs.

From Wikipedia:
Registrations_EVs_Norway_2004_2013.png
 

Brianbarn

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Really glad to see this! It's cool to see so many countries who have put bans on their calendar. It'll definitely have an interesting effect on the used car market and I think there are some implications for the gas station industry.

If anybody has any interest, take some time to watch Tony Seba's presentation on disruption in the transportation industry to get a sense of what is going on and where we might be going.

That video is fascinating. Well worth investing an hour to watch it.
 

silverelan

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Well the first test will be Norway since their ICE ban is only 5 years away: 2025.
Granted their market is already very heavily BEV weighted: close to 40% of Norway's market is EVs.

From Wikipedia:
Ford Mustang Mach-E New ICE vehicles to be banned in the UK from 2035 Registrations_EVs_Norway_2004_2013
Adoption curves are non-linear and a lot of people never really see it coming.

To use Norway as an example and possible glimpse into the future demise of fossil car sales, EV market share for new cars in January was 44%.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...rket-share-in-norway-in-january-idUSKBN1ZX27U

@phila, is there any sense in Norway that buying a fossil car is a good or bad idea with the impending ban coming?
 

dbsb3233

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Well the first test will be Norway since their ICE ban is only 5 years away: 2025.
Granted their market is already very heavily BEV weighted: close to 40% of Norway's market is EVs.
Geography has a lot to do with it too. Countries that are small and more isolated (drive-wise) will have an easier time transitioning since long drives are far more rare. Norway, for instance, while long north-to-south, is heavily broken up by water (with ferry stops) along the coasts. Most of the population resides in the south within BEV range. There's relatively fewer long-haul continuous drives. It's not like driving the family across 2 wide-open states to get to the Grand Canyon or Disneyworld.

And even in Norway's case, I expect exceptions as they get closer to that deadline. BEVs are great for some purposes but they fall short for others.

If there's a US state that ends up mostly banning ICE vehicles, I would expect it to be Hawaii.
 

dbsb3233

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I've watched a few of Tony Seba's videos before. While he sprinkles in some good points, he has a tendency for gross exaggeration and wildly unrealistic time frames. Which is a shame because some of his base reasoning is sound for the general direction of things.
 

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As others have said, far off targets are rarely actually achieved as originally planned. To borrow from a famous general: "no plan survives first contact with the enemy". In this case the enemy isn't the car manufacturers but big oil, and they are a formidable enemy. Exxon, BP, et al aren't necessarily worried about small markets like Norway and Hawaii (other than them setting precedents), but rest assured they will bring all of their dirty tricks to prevent the widespread banning of fossil fuels. Miami Florida is constantly inundated with floods now due to rising tides, and state officials were banned from using the phrase "climate change".
 

dbsb3233

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Exxon, BP, et al aren't necessarily worried about small markets like Norway and Hawaii (other than them setting precedents),
The irony is that Norway is still one of the bigger oil-producing countries on the planet. #15 on the list, producing 1.5 Mbpd. (And #4 on oil production per capita.)
 

phila

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Adoption curves are non-linear and a lot of people never really see it coming.

To use Norway as an example and possible glimpse into the future demise of fossil car sales, EV market share for new cars in January was 44%.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...rket-share-in-norway-in-january-idUSKBN1ZX27U

@phila, is there any sense in Norway that buying a fossil car is a good or bad idea with the impending ban coming?
Good question, as 2025 is approaching quickly and some of these politicians we have here likely do not realize that. There is still a pretty big market for plug-in hybrids (PHEV) and normal petrol ICE cars at this moment as many still use an EV as a second car and not as the only family car. Diesel ICE is pretty well dead though regardless of new or used. And the ban if it ever comes into effect will be for new car sales only, the existing cars will still be allowed on the roads you will simply not be able to buy a new car that is not a BEV or maybe even a PHEV unsure about that one.

check the stats here of the current market.
https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-market/

Remember there are around 5 million total in Norway and at least half likely cannot drive. The city of New York has approx 8 million so we are just a tiny tiny market here looking at the rest of the world.
 

silverelan

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Good question, as 2025 is approaching quickly and some of these politicians we have here likely do not realize that. There is still a pretty big market for plug-in hybrids (PHEV) and normal petrol ICE cars at this moment as many still use an EV as a second car and not as the only family car. Diesel ICE is pretty well dead though regardless of new or used. And the ban if it ever comes into effect will be for new car sales only, the existing cars will still be allowed on the roads you will simply not be able to buy a new car that is not a BEV or maybe even a PHEV unsure about that one.

check the stats here of the current market.
https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-market/

Remember there are around 5 million total in Norway and at least half likely cannot drive. The city of New York has approx 8 million so we are just a tiny tiny market here looking at the rest of the world.
Thanks! I'm just wondering if its made its way into the equation of new car buyers that hey, 2025 is coming soon and so buying a fossil-powered car is a good/bad idea.

I can't figure out if that'll make fossils more valuable or less once the ban is in place. Intuitively, I would think less but people do strange things.

For example, I don't want a CRT television even if it were free. My dad hoarded 100w incandescent bulbs before they were banned. But maybe a car has a different ownership proposition to TVs and lightbulbs.
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