Nissan Ariya Debut on July 15th

[dbsb3233]

I totally understand your point, but I’m just being the devil’s advocate here.
Tesla owns its battery production facilities and is potentially able to make them much cheaper than the competitors (and they seem to be innovating continuously). They don’t have to sell through dealerships saving them the 15-20% vehicle cost. I see a huge advantage for Tesla vs other OEM automakers. Please tell me how the other automakers which you mentioned can make their EVs cheaper than Tesla - by 2025- since you mentioned that (after all price is what might be a deciding factor for a good majority). We are not even considering the supercharger network which costs the user only a fraction of the competitors.
I understand the situation about panel gaps and service issues, but that comes afterwards.

For starters -- variety, and volume. While Tesla will undoubtedly introduce some new models over the next few years, they'll still have very limited offerings and only have the capability to make so many of them. And frankly, what they've chosen to make so far is rather mixed on it's desireability to most Americans. Sedans have been in decline for years in favor of larger utility vehicles. And their Cybertruck is very much an acquired taste (at best). The model Y is a better fit for the meat of the US consumer market. But it's just one model. Consumers want way more variety than that. There's different tastes in looks, in features, in style, etc. Like the Mach-e vs the Model Y. If they do well (and I expect they will), there will be 3-4 more Ford/Lincoln models, and 3-4 Chevy/Cadillac/GMC models, and Toyota, and Honda, and VW... You get the picture.

Even if Tesla stays one step ahead on BEVs for another decade, that doesn't mean they get most of the sales once BEVs start reaching true volume levels (millions/yr). It's no different than ICE vehicles -- some manufacturers and models are always "better" than others. But most of them still find their place in the market, because people like something specific about them. How many times do you see vehicles on the road that you think "Ugh, I'd never buy that!". But other people do.

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[dbsb3233]

Tesla will do fine, but simply put they have little competition currently, and that's not going to stay true another 5 years. Their total sales will likely continue to increase as EV sales take away market from ICE sales, but their % of EV sales will go down.

Exactly. There really has been VERY little competition to Tesla in the US BEV market. Especially outside of California. You can get a low-end Bolt or a Leaf in nearly any state, but good luck finding a Niro or a Kona outside of CA (and even in CA for that matter). And brands like BMW and Audi and Porche are just way outside most people's price ranges (even for their ICE vehicles).

Plus a 150kW+ CCS charging network is only now starting to seriously blanket the US. It still has quite a ways to go, but many major routes are finally possible to drive that weren't possible 2 years ago (thanks to EA). It's growing fast. We'll be seeing dramatic growth in both mainstream BEV models and in the charging network this decade.

I view the 2010's as the "infancy" decade for BEVs. The 2020's should be the "adolescent" decade. In another decade they'll have grown up and be at least a third of the new vehicle market (more if battery technology dramatically improves).

 

[abr]

I totally understand your point, but I’m just being the devil’s advocate here.
Tesla owns its battery production facilities and is potentially able to make them much cheaper than the competitors (and they seem to be innovating continuously). They don’t have to sell through dealerships saving them the 15-20% vehicle cost. I see a huge advantage for Tesla vs other OEM automakers. Please tell me how the other automakers which you mentioned can make their EVs cheaper than Tesla - by 2025- since you mentioned that (after all price is what might be a deciding factor for a good majority). We are not even considering the supercharger network which costs the user only a fraction of the competitors.
I understand the situation about panel gaps and service issues, but that comes afterwards.

I don't think Tesla's cost to produce vehicles is cheaper (sans batteries). Because of their experience and knowledge at manufacturing autos, not only do most other manufacturers produce higher quality, but they do it at a lower cost overall. Where Tesla has a cost advantage is in battery production. And while that is a big portion of costs now, it will decline over time for all. As more manufacturers produce BEV's, Tesla won't be able to undercut pricing to keep market share, like they have done very recently with price drops.

 

[DaveRuns]

I must say, I’m intrigued by the upcoming Nissan Ariya. It looks sharp and the specs seem like it could be a real contender. If I didn’t need a car now, I could see myself waiting and buying this car. I’d like to test drive it when it’s finally released. If it’s really good, I may have to trade in my MME. We’ll see: https://www.hotcars.com/heres-why-the-ariya-is-crucial-for-nissans-success/amp/

 

[DaveRuns]

The Ariya is what I'm considering if I'm not able to get a MME this year. I'm hoping that I wasn't too late getting an order in ahead of whatever limit to production Ford has this year. If not, que sera sera and the Ariya looks nice.

Keep us updated! I’m not sure when you can start placing reservations for it.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Sure. Still hoping I got my order submitted in time to get the MME though. Ariya isn't a bad car and Nissan has a track record of doing pretty well with the Leaf so I think there's reason to be optimistic. All the same, Ariya is my *second* choice....

The Ariya isn’t bad but I’d put it behind the ID.4.

 

[DaveRuns]

The Ariya isn’t bad but I’d put it behind the ID.4.

This surprises me. The ID4 seems rather plain and basic compared to the Nissan. I’m a novice though.

 

[trutolife27]

Kyle hates the ariya and likes the ID4.

 

[JoseLuisDeLaCruz]

insideevs podcast was saying the Ariya has CHAdeMO. If that's true, the Ariya is a failure before it's even available.

That is not correct they definitely switched over to CCS. Motoman discussed this in his video where he spoke with one of the engineers for the Ariya.

 

[JoseLuisDeLaCruz]

Sounds like I should have researched this a little better before ordering a Mach-E haha. So....taking a cross-country, or long road trip will be a hassle for us?

Yes absolutely! If you look at the CCS chargers location map vs the Tesla Superchargers you will see the big difference. There are literally gaps all over the United States where there are miles and miles without a CCS Charger. That isn’t the case with the SuperCharging network. If you are into taking roadtrips Tesla is the better choice. It just a reality at the moment. Plus Tesla’s superchargers are always placed in locations with amenities unlike CCS which many are placed in strange remote areas with no amenities.

 

[DaveRuns]

Yes absolutely! If you look at the CCS chargers location map vs the Tesla Superchargers you will see the big difference. There are literally gaps all over the United States where there are miles and miles without a CCS Charger. That isn’t the case with the SuperCharging network. If you are into taking roadtrips Tesla is the better choice. It just a reality at the moment. Plus Tesla’s superchargers are always placed in locations with amenities unlike CCS which many are placed in strange remote areas with no amenities.

For the time being, if I want to take a road trip, we'll be taking our Jeep Grand Cherokee.

 

[dbsb3233]

Yes absolutely! If you look at the CCS chargers location map vs the Tesla Superchargers you will see the big difference. There are literally gaps all over the United States where there are miles and miles without a CCS Charger. That isn’t the case with the SuperCharging network. If you are into taking roadtrips Tesla is the better choice. It just a reality at the moment. Plus Tesla’s superchargers are always placed in locations with amenities unlike CCS which many are placed in strange remote areas with no amenities.

And even if there's good DCFC coverage for a planned route, there's the fact it takes 10x longer to DCFC charge than to fill up with gas. And you have to stop at least 2x as frequently.

Often doable, but definitely more hassle.

But it's just the opposite for around home use (with cheap/easy overnight home charging). Easier than ICE.

 

[silverelan]

That is not correct they definitely switched over to CCS. Motoman discussed this in his video where he spoke with one of the engineers for the Ariya.

Right, two weeks after my post Nissan officially unveiled the Ariya and revealed it had CCS.

 

[Dan G]

Yes absolutely! If you look at the CCS chargers location map vs the Tesla Superchargers you will see the big difference. There are literally gaps all over the United States where there are miles and miles without a CCS Charger. That isn’t the case with the SuperCharging network. If you are into taking roadtrips Tesla is the better choice. It just a reality at the moment. Plus Tesla’s superchargers are always placed in locations with amenities unlike CCS which many are placed in strange remote areas with no amenities.

This is absolutely not correct. There's a significant gap in the northern midwest and that's about it. I've said this before. I've been in road trips in a M3 and I'd much rather do a road trip on the EA network over the Supercharger network.

 

[Dan G]

And even if there's good DCFC coverage for a planned route, there's the fact it takes 10x longer to DCFC charge than to fill up with gas. And you have to stop at least 2x as frequently.

Often doable, but definitely more hassle.

But it's just the opposite for around home use (with cheap/easy overnight home charging). Easier than ICE.

After doing some trips in a BEV, I much prefer them. It's a much more relaxing experience. I prefer the charger hopping method that Kyle from Out of Spec does. Drive 2 hours or so and take a 20 minute break. It gets rid of the "get-thereitis" and makes for a much more relaxed drive. For me, anyway.

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