atacama
Well-Known Member
- First Name
- Kurt
- Joined
- Dec 15, 2021
- Threads
- 6
- Messages
- 52
- Reaction score
- 43
- Location
- New England
- Vehicles
- Specialized Diverge gravel bike
Ford was at roughly 157k vehicles at the end of 2021Q3, not the end of 2021. If you look at the IRS site and scroll over to the right, 21Q4 is not yet populated, and the 2021 cumulative sales figure is the sum of quarters 1-3. So estimating when Ford hits 200k EVs sold requires estimating MME sales plus Lightning and Transit EV sales that are supposed to start in spring. Given all the MME production issues weāve seen, itās not a bad guess that the other EVs will start rather slow, so thereās a decent chance Ford wonāt hit 200k sold until 22Q3, which would trigger a credit reduction to $3750 starting 1/1/23. But it could also easily be 10/1/22 when it drops to $3750. See this thread for more.I think it is safe to say that the full value of the current tax credit will be available through the end of the year. Ford is roughly at 157K vehicles sold as of December 31st. That leaves 43K left. Ford sold roughly 30K last year. Even with MME production ramping up, and the forthcoming Lightning, I donāt se them hitting the phaseout trigger until Q3 at the earliest, which means that Q4 retains full value of the credit. Unless something really weird happens, in 23 weeks you should have your MME, long before the phaseout trigger is hit.
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