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PBP for Mach-E

Dr. J

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Yes I'm new here, so sorry for the run-on post but I have a genuine question: Those that are buying this, what drove the purchase decision, and did you run any sort of numbers on payback?

I'm hoping that I don't get a bunch of, frankly, fanboy responses, because it seems whenever I ask that in a Tesla forum (or in any forum with Tesla owners), they tend to bend over backwards to justify their purchase as being financially sound, when in fact it isn't. If you like a car for the tech, that's fine, just like you're not buying some high end sportscar thinking it's going to be cheaper than a 4 cyl to drive - but don't lie to yourself either.

Every time I am in the market for a new car I give EV's (and other technologies) a chance, but they always fail the first bar - payback. That is, let's run some rough numbers on how long it will take the EV to pay for its premium based on cost per mile driven. If it's close or reasonable, then we can include other factors like insurance (seems to be hit an miss, as reports have, for example, Tesla insurance to either be normal or very expensive), maintenance (which I think the EV fanboys tend to over exaggerate), etc.

It seems I live in an odd area where gas is fairly inexpensive and electricity the opposite. Right now I can fill up for about $2.05/gal,. Meanwhile, electricity (TOU rates, meaning the absolute best it's going to get) is about $0.171/kWh (non-TOU is $0.195 and TOU peak is $0.247!). Using that and stated efficiencies for certain vehicles I can get a cost/mile - for the Mach-E it's about $0.056/mile. For an ICE that gets 28 mpg (e.g. Honda HR-V, which I would consider a comparably-sized vehicle) that cost per mile is $0.075/mile using $2.10/gal gas. That gap is $0.0192/mile. So, for 100,000 miles that's $1917.21, or let's call it an even $2000 for every 100k miles driven.

Immediately this should raise some flags, as the EV premium is far more than $2000, and most would consider even a 100k PBP too long (in industry, a rule of thumb is 2 years, and for me that would be more like 40k miles). Indeed, running those numbers, not including taxes, insurance differences or "maintenance" BUT including tax credits, puts the PBP for the Mach-E Premium at nearly 900,000 miles. No amount of adjusting for "maintenance" or other costs is going to bring this down to the point where an argument can be made. [using an Escape under the same circumstances, gives a PBP around 750k miles]

I'm just wondering if I am far off here, or perhaps everyone lives in an area where gas is crazy expensive and electricity cheap (or free, e.g. solar)? Or, it could be that no one cares about the cost difference and they just like the car. That's fine too.
 

Mach-E VLOG

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Yes I'm new here, so sorry for the run-on post but I have a genuine question: Those that are buying this, what drove the purchase decision, and did you run any sort of numbers on payback?

I'm hoping that I don't get a bunch of, frankly, fanboy responses, because it seems whenever I ask that in a Tesla forum (or in any forum with Tesla owners), they tend to bend over backwards to justify their purchase as being financially sound, when in fact it isn't. If you like a car for the tech, that's fine, just like you're not buying some high end sportscar thinking it's going to be cheaper than a 4 cyl to drive - but don't lie to yourself either.

Every time I am in the market for a new car I give EV's (and other technologies) a chance, but they always fail the first bar - payback. That is, let's run some rough numbers on how long it will take the EV to pay for its premium based on cost per mile driven. If it's close or reasonable, then we can include other factors like insurance (seems to be hit an miss, as reports have, for example, Tesla insurance to either be normal or very expensive), maintenance (which I think the EV fanboys tend to over exaggerate), etc.

It seems I live in an odd area where gas is fairly inexpensive and electricity the opposite. Right now I can fill up for about $2.05/gal,. Meanwhile, electricity (TOU rates, meaning the absolute best it's going to get) is about $0.171/kWh (non-TOU is $0.195 and TOU peak is $0.247!). Using that and stated efficiencies for certain vehicles I can get a cost/mile - for the Mach-E it's about $0.056/mile. For an ICE that gets 28 mpg (e.g. Honda HR-V, which I would consider a comparably-sized vehicle) that cost per mile is $0.075/mile using $2.10/gal gas. That gap is $0.0192/mile. So, for 100,000 miles that's $1917.21, or let's call it an even $2000 for every 100k miles driven.

Immediately this should raise some flags, as the EV premium is far more than $2000, and most would consider even a 100k PBP too long (in industry, a rule of thumb is 2 years, and for me that would be more like 40k miles). Indeed, running those numbers, not including taxes, insurance differences or "maintenance" BUT including tax credits, puts the PBP for the Mach-E Premium at nearly 900,000 miles. No amount of adjusting for "maintenance" or other costs is going to bring this down to the point where an argument can be made. [using an Escape under the same circumstances, gives a PBP around 750k miles]

I'm just wondering if I am far off here, or perhaps everyone lives in an area where gas is crazy expensive and electricity cheap (or free, e.g. solar)? Or, it could be that no one cares about the cost difference and they just like the car. That's fine too.
The are so many factors that relate to the cost and many of them are up to the individual and the car you are comparing it to. I'm coming from a Subaru WRX that has had a few very costly repairs, so I am figuring the maintenance cost savings compared to something like that will be huge. But I have had other cars that needed minimal maintenance until I hit 215,000 miles.

I tried to do a basic cost analysis in the video below. It's not perfect and my assumptions may be off. Gas prices can vary widely over the course of a couple of years.

In the end, I determined it works out for me financially. I also realize it is not purely a financial decision. I am buying this because it is fun, comfortable, and looks great.

 

RVAtom

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I haven't personally done the math for my situation. I knew I wanted a BEV for my next vehicle largely for environmental reasons. Where I live electricity without TOU changes is closer to $0.11/kWh, and gas is closer to $2.40/gallon. That probably makes the math a little closer right there though.

I don't look at the vehicle as a pure financial instrument though, there is definitely some emotion tied into the decision to purchase a battery powered vehicle.
 

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Car purchases are not rational decisions for the great majority of people. If they were, we'd all drive the most reliable, most efficient, most cost-effective car that did the job we needed to do. Cars are part of our identity, who we want to be and how we want others to see us.

For me, a MME is a good way to check off the boxes I want - a vehicle with the basic specs I need, that I'm happy to look at, happy to drive, and is in some way socially responsible.

To seal the deal - I can get all that in a GT with 600+ ftlbs of torque in AWD. Take my money.
 

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I did that once, bought a car purely for the "best bang for the buck",.... ended up with 2008 Hyundai Accent...manual, no AC...

Heck it only cost me 9,995$ before taxes and I got financing of 0% over 36months...

It was cheap on gas, easy to park, brought us from point A to point B without issues... great city car.

But in the end, what a boring car it was!!!!
 

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I didn't run any numbers either. If it was a strictly business decision for me then I'd just keep my Focus Electric and be happy. It is by far the most economical EV that I was able to find and that was because I was able to purchase it pretty much brand new for about 40% of the MSRP figure so it was no brainer for me.

I will be buying the Mach E for full MSRP (less X plan) so it's not a wise financial decision for me. I am splurging.

However, that being said.....I almost splurged on a Jaguar IPace so compared to that scenario....the MME is a wise financial decision. :) So, it's just a matter of how you want to look at it. :)
 

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Yes I'm new here, so sorry for the run-on post but I have a genuine question: Those that are buying this, what drove the purchase decision, and did you run any sort of numbers on payback?

I'm hoping that I don't get a bunch of, frankly, fanboy responses, because it seems whenever I ask that in a Tesla forum (or in any forum with Tesla owners), they tend to bend over backwards to justify their purchase as being financially sound, when in fact it isn't. If you like a car for the tech, that's fine, just like you're not buying some high end sportscar thinking it's going to be cheaper than a 4 cyl to drive - but don't lie to yourself either.

Every time I am in the market for a new car I give EV's (and other technologies) a chance, but they always fail the first bar - payback. That is, let's run some rough numbers on how long it will take the EV to pay for its premium based on cost per mile driven. If it's close or reasonable, then we can include other factors like insurance (seems to be hit an miss, as reports have, for example, Tesla insurance to either be normal or very expensive), maintenance (which I think the EV fanboys tend to over exaggerate), etc.

It seems I live in an odd area where gas is fairly inexpensive and electricity the opposite. Right now I can fill up for about $2.05/gal,. Meanwhile, electricity (TOU rates, meaning the absolute best it's going to get) is about $0.171/kWh (non-TOU is $0.195 and TOU peak is $0.247!). Using that and stated efficiencies for certain vehicles I can get a cost/mile - for the Mach-E it's about $0.056/mile. For an ICE that gets 28 mpg (e.g. Honda HR-V, which I would consider a comparably-sized vehicle) that cost per mile is $0.075/mile using $2.10/gal gas. That gap is $0.0192/mile. So, for 100,000 miles that's $1917.21, or let's call it an even $2000 for every 100k miles driven.

Immediately this should raise some flags, as the EV premium is far more than $2000, and most would consider even a 100k PBP too long (in industry, a rule of thumb is 2 years, and for me that would be more like 40k miles). Indeed, running those numbers, not including taxes, insurance differences or "maintenance" BUT including tax credits, puts the PBP for the Mach-E Premium at nearly 900,000 miles. No amount of adjusting for "maintenance" or other costs is going to bring this down to the point where an argument can be made. [using an Escape under the same circumstances, gives a PBP around 750k miles]

I'm just wondering if I am far off here, or perhaps everyone lives in an area where gas is crazy expensive and electricity cheap (or free, e.g. solar)? Or, it could be that no one cares about the cost difference and they just like the car. That's fine too.
I get your analysis and well done. The NE has long been known as an area where things are "flipped" regarding EVs. I live in CA, and our gas is currently over $3.00 a gallon - just above the lowest I have seen, which was about $2.70 at COSTCO. So that is different.
Most people I have met at events for MME are like me, a little older and looking for a fun car that is an EV. I would not put an HR-V in that category but everyone has their own tastes. I looked at hybrids, but then realized I hate going to gas stations so why not just go with the full EV? It is a lifestyle choice as much as anything else and, in this state, EVs are literally everywhere, especially Teslas. I understand the monetary side but I am just in the mood to go for something new and different.
 

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No you are right, but I'm in a place where my electricity cost roughly per kilometre 10% of what it would cost me for gas so for example 3000 dollars a year of gas would be $300 electricity for the same mileage. Short-term the car will cost me a lot more money, long-term I start to get the money back as soon as the car is finished being paid. In the US I'm sure it's the opposite or very close to it so yes it would take you longer to recover the added investment of an electric car versus a gas car. Do take into account that if you do a lot of mileage, your warranty expires faster and the chance that you will have more repairs to do on a gas car then an electric car is greater, since electric is supposed to be more reliable. Also spending time in the garage for maintenance has its own cost since my car is my primary work tool, any time im in the garage im losing money.

I just got quoted 750$ for tranny and dif oil change since i hit the 100k kms. Thats almost 1 month of an EV payment for which I dont need to do that maintenance. So yes you are right just make sure you consider all your expenses and decide whats best for you.
Dont listen to the fan boys who want to shove their ideals down your throat.
 

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Yes I'm new here, so sorry for the run-on post but I have a genuine question: Those that are buying this, what drove the purchase decision, and did you run any sort of numbers on payback?

I'm hoping that I don't get a bunch of, frankly, fanboy responses, because it seems whenever I ask that in a Tesla forum (or in any forum with Tesla owners), they tend to bend over backwards to justify their purchase as being financially sound, when in fact it isn't. If you like a car for the tech, that's fine, just like you're not buying some high end sportscar thinking it's going to be cheaper than a 4 cyl to drive - but don't lie to yourself either.

Every time I am in the market for a new car I give EV's (and other technologies) a chance, but they always fail the first bar - payback. That is, let's run some rough numbers on how long it will take the EV to pay for its premium based on cost per mile driven. If it's close or reasonable, then we can include other factors like insurance (seems to be hit an miss, as reports have, for example, Tesla insurance to either be normal or very expensive), maintenance (which I think the EV fanboys tend to over exaggerate), etc.

It seems I live in an odd area where gas is fairly inexpensive and electricity the opposite. Right now I can fill up for about $2.05/gal,. Meanwhile, electricity (TOU rates, meaning the absolute best it's going to get) is about $0.171/kWh (non-TOU is $0.195 and TOU peak is $0.247!). Using that and stated efficiencies for certain vehicles I can get a cost/mile - for the Mach-E it's about $0.056/mile. For an ICE that gets 28 mpg (e.g. Honda HR-V, which I would consider a comparably-sized vehicle) that cost per mile is $0.075/mile using $2.10/gal gas. That gap is $0.0192/mile. So, for 100,000 miles that's $1917.21, or let's call it an even $2000 for every 100k miles driven.

Immediately this should raise some flags, as the EV premium is far more than $2000, and most would consider even a 100k PBP too long (in industry, a rule of thumb is 2 years, and for me that would be more like 40k miles). Indeed, running those numbers, not including taxes, insurance differences or "maintenance" BUT including tax credits, puts the PBP for the Mach-E Premium at nearly 900,000 miles. No amount of adjusting for "maintenance" or other costs is going to bring this down to the point where an argument can be made. [using an Escape under the same circumstances, gives a PBP around 750k miles]

I'm just wondering if I am far off here, or perhaps everyone lives in an area where gas is crazy expensive and electricity cheap (or free, e.g. solar)? Or, it could be that no one cares about the cost difference and they just like the car. That's fine too.
I don't think you can do a payback analysis without specifying exactly to which car and price you are comparing.

If you're comparing the Mach E to a Ford Escape then you'll probably never see your money. If you're comparing it to a Land Rover you will.
 

OttawaGuy

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I don't think you can do a payback analysis without specifying exactly to which car and price you are comparing.

If you're comparing the Mach E to a Ford Escape then you'll probably never see your money. If you're comparing it to a Land Rover you will.
I currently lease a Honda civic at 267$ a month....


I better not try to do the math at all or even think about it
 

JayTee

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I currently lease a Honda civic at 267$ a month....


I better not try to do the math at all or even think about it
Exactly. In order to conduct a true payback analysis You would have to find another vehicle that is exactly as nice, exactly as durable, and performs exactly as well as the Mach E.
 



 









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