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Production runs & line output guesstimates

ChasingCoral

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I'm starting this as a new thread as it contains a whole series of guesstimates you can use to see when your Mach E MIGHT be produced.

Let's assume they will keep the Cuautitlan plant going with continuous production from Mach E job #1 through the GTs. I'll also assume the 4000 dealer demos and specials are run at a slower rate before the start of job #1, that makes 46,000 units. From 26 October through the end of the year is 8 weeks. Three weeks off for Christmas through Three Kings Day means a restart 11 January. The next run is 12 weeks until Good Friday, 2 April. Another 2 week break and a restart 19 April gives us 15 weeks through the end of July. 35 weeks. That allows for US delivery of GTs in late summer. There may also need to be some downtime to reset the line before the start of the GTs.

That gives us an estimated average line production rate of 1300 cars per week, 260 per day. So realistically we are probably looking at between 1000-1500 cars per week or 200-300 per day.

Further assumptions (and lots of guesses):
~3,000 First Editions (Best estimates range from a low of 3,000 total to no more than 10% of the total. Final number depends on if non-converted FE reservations are opened up or if the only build the numbers left of those who initially reserved.
~30% GTs (based on https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2019/12/30/mustang-mach-e-first-edition-reservation-facts.html?cks=&emailid=Article Alert Ford)

In the US, let's assume 5% FE, 25% GT, 50% Premium, 15% Select, 5% CA Route 1
(based on one reservation and one order database)
In Europe let's assume 20% AWD, 60% RWD (based on reservation database and a guess of 20% GTs)

Total units:
20,000 US: 1,000 FEs, 5,000 GTs, 10,000 Premium, 3,000 Select, 1,000 CA Route 1
30,000 EU: 18,000 RWD, 6,000 AWD, 6,000 GTs

Working with these numbers:
Run 1 focuses on getting out as many US cars as possible
26 October-23 December 8 weeks 8,000-12,000 Mach Es

This will be 1,000 FEs, 5,000- Premiums, 1000-1,500 Selects, 500 CA Route 1

Run 2 focuses on getting out as many EU cars as possible
11 January-2 April 12 weeks 12,000-18,000 Mach Es

Run 3 gets out the rest of the Mach Es, including all GTs
19 April-30 July 15 weeks 15,000-22,500 Mach Es

That models out to:

1594141172823.png


You can compare your reservation numbers against these to get an idea of the run in which your Mach E MIGHT be produced. The latest reservation number is over 80,000.

Fire away with corrections to my math or your theories.
 
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dbsb3233

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I think you probably have your Run1 and Run2 backwards for EU vs US (or NA).
 
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I think you probably have your Run1 and Run2 backwards for EU vs US (or NA).
Yeah, based on the news that EU deliveries had been pushed back, combined with the earlier US timeline for Select and Route 1, my guess is that they will use the first run to fulfill as many US orders as possible.
 
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ChasingCoral

ChasingCoral

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I think you probably have your Run1 and Run2 backwards for EU vs US (or NA).
Thanks. Just fixed that as well as the table that didn't display properly.
 

SD_Solar

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OK, I’ll take my turn at playing “Carnac The Magnificent”.
Probably showing my age here and a lot of posters here will have no idea what this phrase means.

We can gleam some info from the Mach-E Submitted Order list here on the forum, which has about 131 converted orders. It has a couple of issues though which need consideration --- the GT reservations are not open to convert yet and the CA Route 1 / Select have a long time window until Dec 31 to convert.

There are only 2 CA Route 1 orders and 3 Select orders on the list out of the 131 orders, not likely ratios.

My estimates for N.A. production are pretty close to yours --- FE’s about 1,000 higher and Select’s about 1,000 lower.

2020 – 2021 N.A. Mach-E Production (20,000 Total)
First Edition 10% 2,000
Premium 50% 10,000
CA Route 1 5% 1,000
Select 10% 2,000
GT 25% 5,000

I still think we may have an October Surprise here and production runs will start at the beginning of October rather than the end.
 

dbsb3233

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OK, I’ll take my turn at playing “Carnac The Magnificent”.
Probably showing my age here and a lot of posters here will have no idea what this phrase means.
Au contraire, banana breath! ;)

We watch Carson reruns almost every night. Antenna TV runs them every night M-F. They have most of the shows from 1973 to 1992 when Johnny retired. We watched many of them originally, and it's great seeing them again. It's especially fun seeing all the stuff they say and do that would get people fired today for not being 'politically correct'. 😄

It's unfortunate that few of them exist prior to 1973. NBC actually recorded over most of those video tapes.
 
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ChasingCoral

ChasingCoral

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OK, I’ll take my turn at playing “Carnac The Magnificent”.
Probably showing my age here and a lot of posters here will have no idea what this phrase means.

We can gleam some info from the Mach-E Submitted Order list here on the forum, which has about 131 converted orders. It has a couple of issues though which need consideration --- the GT reservations are not open to convert yet and the CA Route 1 / Select have a long time window until Dec 31 to convert.

There are only 2 CA Route 1 orders and 3 Select orders on the list out of the 131 orders, not likely ratios.

My estimates for N.A. production are pretty close to yours --- FE’s about 1,000 higher and Select’s about 1,000 lower.

2020 – 2021 N.A. Mach-E Production (20,000 Total)
First Edition 10% 2,000
Premium 50% 10,000
CA Route 1 5% 1,000
Select 10% 2,000
GT 25% 5,000

I still think we may have an October Surprise here and production runs will start at the beginning of October rather than the end.
Very reasonable alternatives. Anyone else find an envelope in a mayonnaise jar?
 

eager2own

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I would assume that GTs are at 6,000 given that Ford has identified those reservations at 30%.
In fact, they could be more than that if one’s willing to assume that GTs are more popular in N.A. than the E.U. — in other words, although worldwide GT orders are approximately an average 30% of all orders, they may be higher in U.S. than Europe... so we may see more than 6,000 GTs for the U.S. market.
 

MachE2021

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What’s the likelihood that some of the 2021 orders being placed right now (that aren’t subject to earlier time stamps) would be delivered as MY 2022 versions very late in 2021 or early 2022?
 

GregM

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What’s the likelihood that some of the 2021 orders being placed right now (that aren’t subject to earlier time stamps) would be delivered as MY 2022 versions very late in 2021 or early 2022?
Who knows- you would think Ford has scheduling down better then Tesla - but I know of folks that ordered a Y a few months ago and got it before people who placed an order day 1...until we know how they batch trims/options/colors who knows.

I still am holding out that FEs won't be made first and it is just a trim/badging thing and a lot of Premiums will be run (I know it is a long shot, but until I see proof MY order is not first, I am holding out hope - ha)
 

dbsb3233

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What’s the likelihood that some of the 2021 orders being placed right now (that aren’t subject to earlier time stamps) would be delivered as MY 2022 versions very late in 2021 or early 2022?
I'm guessing fairly low, as I doubt they have 50,000 reservations, or at least 50,000 follow-thrus. It's still an expensive car, and with the virus-induced recession, I suspect a number of reservations canceled.
 
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ChasingCoral

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I just went back and looked at some of the EU reports. Dutch and UK buyers were told 1st quarter of 2021. That may move some EU orders earlier in the build but I haven't heard about non-Dutch EU customers converting to orders.

Per Friday's FDNB (Fleet Distribution News Bulletin), here's the production timetable for the 2021 Mustang Mach-E.
  • 06/22/2020 - 2021MY Order Bank Open Date
  • 08/20/2020 - 2021MY Scheduling Begins
  • 10/26/2020 - 2021MY Job #1 Date
So, the first run, from Job #1 to 12/23-ish has to be scheduled by 8/20, thus the 7/31 order cutoff.

Maybe they are going to have EU orders due before August 20th?
 
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ChasingCoral

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What’s the likelihood that some of the 2021 orders being placed right now (that aren’t subject to earlier time stamps) would be delivered as MY 2022 versions very late in 2021 or early 2022?
With GTs last in the schedule and coming out Summer 2021 I see it very unlikely. I think the last of the 2021s will be produced next summer.
 

hybrid2bev

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I just went back and looked at some of the EU reports. Dutch and UK buyers were told 1st quarter of 2021. That may move some EU orders earlier in the build but I haven't heard about non-Dutch EU customers converting to orders.

Per Friday's FDNB (Fleet Distribution News Bulletin), here's the production timetable for the 2021 Mustang Mach-E.
  • 06/22/2020 - 2021MY Order Bank Open Date
  • 08/20/2020 - 2021MY Scheduling Begins
  • 10/26/2020 - 2021MY Job #1 Date
So, the first run, from Job #1 to 12/23-ish has to be scheduled by 8/20, thus the 7/31 order cutoff.

Maybe they are going to have EU orders due before August 20th?
It says scheduling begins on 8-20 not ends. The scheduling will have to be iterative to account for new order conversions through the model year. I think if you want to be in one of the early batches you would want to convert before 8-20.
 

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I would assume that GTs are at 6,000 given that Ford has identified those reservations at 30%.
In fact, they could be more than that if one’s willing to assume that GTs are more popular in N.A. than the E.U. — in other words, although worldwide GT orders are approximately an average 30% of all orders, they may be higher in U.S. than Europe... so we may see more than 6,000 GTs for the U.S. market.
As of yet the GT hasn't been offered in the EU so all those reservations so far will be NA. I suspect the GT won't be offered in the EU until after the first years 50k units have been built.
 



 










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