Production runs & line output guesstimates

[hetgeleteken]

Thanks. It might have been in an email, too.

Funny enough, its not. I did get a confirmation from the lease company, who use their own reference number for my order (completely different format, not remotely related). The lease company stated they don't have that number, and that I should contact the Ford dealer (Ardea in Amsterdam) directly. Just sent a mail to the manager fleetsales & leasing. Once I have the number, I'll add it to the list.

Sponsored

 

[hetgeleteken]

This is very very far off topic but one of the gf's favorite stories is how she was at a Panera Bread and overheard the following exchange:

Cashier: "Would you like that in a bread bowl or a regular bowl?"

Customer: "What's a bread bowl?"

Cashier, after a pause, incredulous: "it's... a bowl made out of bread"

Ah feels like ages ago that I was at a Panera's store.. I used to travel to the US every 6 to 8 weeks for work (mainly NYC and NJ) for the past 2 years or so, but with Corona that has all been put on hold. I always marveled at the low car prices, and took the opportunity to rent some pony cars while I was there.

 

[Nico]

Funny enough, its not. I did get a confirmation from the lease company, who use their own reference number for my order (completely different format, not remotely related). The lease company stated they don't have that number, and that I should contact the Ford dealer (Ardea in Amsterdam) directly. Just sent a mail to the manager fleetsales & leasing. Once I have the number, I'll add it to the list.

Struggled with the same issue, even the dealer couldn't get me a reservation number, as it was placed via the lease company. In the end they couldn't provide the reservation number, even got a printscreen from their ordering system, but it wasn't in there neither.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Funny enough, its not. I did get a confirmation from the lease company, who use their own reference number for my order (completely different format, not remotely related). The lease company stated they don't have that number, and that I should contact the Ford dealer (Ardea in Amsterdam) directly. Just sent a mail to the manager fleetsales & leasing. Once I have the number, I'll add it to the list.

The lease company may not be delivering those numbers to you and may not even get them. Please enter the rest if you don't get the number.

 

[RonTCat]

OK, time for version 5!

The latest news today from Ford employees, including in Cuautitlan, confirmed some new key dates and other information:

• Job 1 is now September 28
• Mass production 1 will be FCTP and company cars
• Mass production 2 will begin about a month later and will be customer units and dealer stock
• All First Editions to be built by last week of October, if possible
• Time table from the day your vin is built to arrival at dealer 3-4 weeks
• OK to buy (date customer units expected at dealers in US) is now November 23
• Assembly line rate at full production 1,300 per week and Dearborn wants them to hit it!
• Important corollary: Dearborn wants nothing shipped with anything to fix. Farley has a no excuse policy.
• Final date for conversion of First Edition reservations has slipped again to 8/14
• As far as we know, Mach E production scheduling still begins August 20
• We've heard Dutch delivery dates around the end of February

I've separated Run 1 into Job #1, FEs, and the rest of MP 2.

Job #1:
At least 2,000 cars will be produced. This includes all of the FCTP units as well as company orders. Company orders include units for final testing as well as executive orders. We know that there will be at least 2,000 units for FCTP. Let's assume 500 more. Presumably EU/UK needs dealer units, so let's still figure 500 there. Under full production of 1,300 per week that's over 2 weeks. However, we should assume slow production, so maybe 3 weeks?

First Editions:
@trutolife27's intel says "The goal is to (try) to have all the first edition built by last week of October."
That's perhaps 3,000 cars. I realize not all reservations will be converted to FE orders but I think conversion will be high. We also don't have confirmation it's 3,000. If we expect 1,000 per week (close to full production), that's 3 weeks. There are only 5 weeks between September 28 and October 30, or 6,500 cars at full production. So maybe they can get out all of Job #1 and the FEs in 5 weeks. Maybe. I'm going to assume Job #1 + First Editions will take 6 weeks. That gets all of the North American First Editions out by the last week of October, which may be what they meant.

Mass Production 2:
Pulling the above two out, this leaves 7 weeks at full production. That's up to 9,100 units. The real question is still how many units are destined for EU/UK. A full Roll-on/Roll-off ship takes about 8,000 vehicles. That would be the almost of the remainder and gets very few Premiums or other non-FE customer units to North America. I doubt that is their plan. I'll again assume 1/2 to NA and 1/2 to EU/UK. I'll also assume full production throughput of vehicles.

Line capacity is now over the needed 50,000 if we assume full production to the end.

Percentages:
We have a few more orders, but still only about 1% of possible orders out there. I don't know if that makes for a valid sample but it's getting close. Selects are up but otherwise no real change and no reason to change assumptions.

v5 Guesstimate
This brings us to the important table:

For North America, we'll assume 4 weeks delivery time (close locations earlier), meaning that by

• November 20 dealers should have their demos
• November 27 First Editions should be delivered
• December 18 should be delivery of
  • 4,000 Premiums
  • 200 Selects and
  • 400 CA Route 1s

This is a little above the high end of the estimate from @trutolife27's contact :

So reality may be lower if production doesn't meet my assumptions.

Producing the EU/UK models other than First Editions would occur at the end, giving 10 weeks to deliver them to their destinations.

What US Reservation Numbers get cars in 2020?
Now I'll go out on a limb I haven't ventured onto before: reservation numbers. We know that there were reservation numbers up into the 80,000s just before orders opened. 50,000 are being produced and orders are still being taken. Let's assume 50% of potential reservation numbers result in orders. This includes reservation numbers not assigned and reservations not converted.

60% of cars go to EU/UK, 40% to NA. That means, for example, that if 10,000 cars are produced, 4,000 US customers get cars. That means 4,000 cars means 10,000 reservation numbers.

Assuming 30% GTs in the US, the 4,000 is actually 5,200 so that brings us to 11,200 reservation numbers. But if only 50% of potential reservation numbers result in orders, that will be doubled to 22,400. Finally, reservation numbers started at 4,000. This means that US reservations up to around 25,000 might be delivered in 2020. We'll consider the First Editions (1000), Selects (200), and CA Route 1s (400) to be noise in this calculation, considering the huge assumptions. Converting that into the more meaningful reservation timestamps, that probably means any reservation made in November has a good chance of being delivered in 2020.

Now don't shoot me if we don't reach res# 20,000! There are lots of assumptions that probably don't hold. Eager people make early reservations, so they probably convert at a higher rate. if @trutolife27's contact is right with the 3,000-5,000 estimate and slow production brings us in at the low end of that scale, 2,000 Premiums becomes 2,600, becomes 5,600, becomes 11,200, becomes about 15,000, so reservations through ~ November 19.

I'm sure I have some math errors and you can definitely find holes in my assumptions. Thoughts?

- Normally MP2 = Job 1. Acceleration to full line rate may be reached about a month after MP2, program dependent.
- Likely typical for units not to leave the plant until OK to Buy.

 

[ChasingCoral]

OK, time for version 6.

The changes are focused mostly on two things:
The 2021 end game: how many Mach Es can be made and by when (This post)
More delivery vs reservation details (next post)

Part of this comes from the great intel from @trutolife27 and inside source. This includes the belief by Ford that there are actually far more orders coming in, perhaps 70,000 and they plan to fill them (see https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...engineering-friends-in-mexico.1100/post-31714 and https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...engineering-friends-in-mexico.1100/post-31808)

With the plan for no C-shift, increased production is reached by increased time. Instead of ending Run 3 on 30 July, it has to be extended to 12 Nov. 2021, assuming a solid 1,300 per week production. That reaches 70,200 cars and a six-week buffer if they have to run long before hitting the 2021 Christmas break and end of legal 2021 production (31 Dec.). To reach the mentioned 80,000 requires 7-8 more weeks or faster production.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

OK, time for version 6.

The changes are focused mostly on two things:
The 2021 end game: how many Mach Es can be made and by when (This post)
More delivery vs reservation details (next post)

Part of this comes from the great intel from @trutolife27 and inside source. This includes the belief by Ford that there are actually far more orders coming in, perhaps 70,000 and they plan to fill them (see https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...engineering-friends-in-mexico.1100/post-31714 and https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...engineering-friends-in-mexico.1100/post-31808)

With the plan for no C-shift, increased production is reached by increased time. Instead of ending Run 3 on 30 July, it has to be extended to 12 Nov. 2021, assuming a solid 1,300 per week production. That reaches 70,200 cars and a six-week buffer if they have to run long before hitting the 2021 Christmas break and end of legal 2021 production (31 Dec.). To reach the mentioned 80,000 requires 7-8 more weeks or faster production.

Thanks for the post and hard work Mark, they're genuinely appreciated.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Now let's model out some delivery vs reservation details for North American Cars.

Ford now is saying dealers will have FCTP cars in stores in late November. The official FCTP order information stated shipping late November. We've also had multiple sources confirm a 23 November OKTB schedule. This gives us three options:

1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive late December (pushing FEs to January)

Let's be optimistic and assume (1) or (2), with FCTP shipped in early November for cars in stores for Thanksgiving weekend. Let's also assume First Editions go as soon as they are ready, arriving early December, with Premiums following right after. Let's also assume cars are shipped pretty quickly after production (as fast as they can fill train cars to distribution locations) with a four week delivery.

FCTP: By the end of November, all FCTP are delivered.
FE: By 11 December all FEs are delivered.
Others: That gives 2-1/2 weeks worth of Premiums, perhaps 3,200 cars, that may be delivered before the end of 2020. The rest of the MP2 run for North America is another 800 premiums and the Selects and CA Route 1s. Additional NA cars wait until Run 2 in January as the rest of Run 1 goes to EU/UK.

My most optimistic prediction has 2020 deliveries of:
All FCTP
ALL FE
3,200 Premiums.

We can assume 35% GTs, 15% FEs, so reservation holders up to 10,400 to perhaps 20,000 get cars in 2020 depending mostly on the ratio of NA to EU/UK cars in that first week of reservations. That means reservations made between the reveal on 11/17 and 11/19 will likely get their cars in 2020, maybe even those who reserved up until about 11/25.

If my guesses are right and production starts back up 11 January and production is divided 60/40 EU/NA, then by July the first 50,000 come out with NA deliveries continuing about 4 weeks after production. That should cover reservations through April or May plus all the GTs. After the GTs are produced, the last reservations and direct buyers (no reservation) arrive through the end of the year.

 

[dbsb3233]

Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive late December (pushing FEs to January)

If trutolife27's info is correct, even the FCTP's can't be shipped until OKTB is given (since the're bought by the dealer). IIRC he said nothing being sold to a dealer can leave the plant until OKTB.

However, I don't see that that necessarily means all FEs have to be pushed to January. It could just mean the plant lots filling up with FCTP and FE units awaiting OKTB, and many being shipped out together.

 

[dbsb3233]

Just out of curiosity, I took a look at satellite view of the Cuautitlan plant to look at on-site storage lots. My rough estimate of the # of cars it appears they have room for on site is 3000-3500.

https://www.google.com/maps/@19.6427985,-99.1905518,1243m/data=!3m1!1e3

Also note the train tracks terminating next to the south lot of the property. There's 30 train cars parked there in that (old) sat photo.

 

[SD_Solar]

I am surprised at how long it is taking to get this plant operational and up to normal production speed.

True, this is a new much different vehicle, but they have been assembling cars and trucks for Ford here for decades, shipping millions.

Their Grandfathers worked for Ford here – this is not their first Rodeo.

 

[SnBGC]

Now let's model out some delivery vs reservation details for North American Cars.

Ford now is saying dealers will have FCTP cars in stores in late November. The official FCTP order information stated shipping late November. We've also had multiple sources confirm a 23 November OKTB schedule. This gives us three options:

1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive late December (pushing FEs to January)

Let's be optimistic and assume (1) or (2), with FCTP shipped in early November for cars in stores for Thanksgiving weekend. Let's also assume First Editions go as soon as they are ready, arriving early December, with Premiums following right after. Let's also assume cars are shipped pretty quickly after production (as fast as they can fill train cars to distribution locations) with a four week delivery.

FCTP: By the end of November, all FCTP are delivered.
FE: By 11 December all FEs are delivered.
Others: That gives 2-1/2 weeks worth of Premiums, perhaps 3,200 cars, that may be delivered before the end of 2020. The rest of the MP2 run for North America is another 800 premiums and the Selects and CA Route 1s. Additional NA cars wait until Run 2 in January as the rest of Run 1 goes to EU/UK.

My most optimistic prediction has 2020 deliveries of:
All FCTP
ALL FE
3,200 Premiums.

We can assume 35% GTs, 15% FEs, so reservation holders up to 10,400 to perhaps 20,000 get cars in 2020 depending mostly on the ratio of NA to EU/UK cars in that first week of reservations. That means reservations made between the reveal on 11/17 and 11/19 will likely get their cars in 2020, maybe even those who reserved up until about 11/25.

If my guesses are right and production starts back up 11 January and production is divided 60/40 EU/NA, then by July the first 50,000 come out with NA deliveries continuing about 4 weeks after production. That should cover reservations through April or May plus all the GTs. After the GTs are produced, the last reservations and direct buyers (no reservation) arrive through the end of the year.

When did Ford switch the expected FCTP units to November? My dealer still thinks his demo unit won't begin production until mid November at the earliest. He expects to get the vehicle in Dec mid to late in the month.
He thinks FE production may begin late Oct while demo car assembly will follow 3-4 weeks after that date. He told me he expects to receive all his FE units before his demo. He must have missed the update from Ford that moved FCTP assembly ahead of FE cars?

 

[macchiaz-o]

Their Grandfathers worked for Ford here – this is not their first Rodeo.

True. But the Rodeos were built at an Isuzu plant in Lafayette, Indiana.

(I'll walk myself out now...)

 

[ChasingCoral]

Just out of curiosity, I took a look at satellite view of the Cuautitlan plant to look at on-site storage lots. My rough estimate of the # of cars it appears they have room for on site is 3000-3500.

https://www.google.com/maps/@19.6427985,-99.1905518,1243m/data=!3m1!1e3

Also note the train tracks terminating next to the south lot of the property. There's 30 train cars parked there in that (old) sat photo.

My contact indicated Ford did a major parking lot expansion to get ready for this. I'm guessing that it is primarily for stacking up the EU/UK units until the ship arrives.

 

[portlandg]

My contact indicated Ford did a major parking lot expansion to get ready for this. I'm guessing that it is primarily for stacking up the EU/UK units until the ship arrives.

Hope so?

Sponsored