Production runs & line output guesstimates

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ChasingCoral

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When did Ford switch the expected FCTP units to November? My dealer still thinks his demo unit won't begin production until mid November at the earliest. He expects to get the vehicle in Dec mid to late in the month.
He thinks FE production may begin late Oct while demo car assembly will follow 3-4 weeks after that date. He told me he expects to receive all his FE units before his demo. He must have missed the update from Ford that moved FCTP assembly ahead of FE cars?
It has been normal to get one thing from Ford or inside sources and something different from Dealers. It sounds like the Dealer is going off the FCTP order info (attached again). The move up is based on @trutolife27's source.
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If trutolife27's info is correct, even the FCTP's can't be shipped until OKTB is given (since the're bought by the dealer). IIRC he said nothing being sold to a dealer can leave the plant until OKTB.

However, I don't see that that necessarily means all FEs have to be pushed to January. It could just mean the plant lots filling up with FCTP and FE units awaiting OKTB, and many being shipped out together.
OK, I'll do a pessimistic version of my prediction for this scenario.
 

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Now let's model out some delivery vs reservation details for North American Cars.

Ford now is saying dealers will have FCTP cars in stores in late November. The official FCTP order information stated shipping late November. We've also had multiple sources confirm a 23 November OKTB schedule. This gives us three options:
  1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
  2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
  3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive late December (pushing FEs to January)
Let's be optimistic and assume (1) or (2), with FCTP shipped in early November for cars in stores for Thanksgiving weekend. Let's also assume First Editions go as soon as they are ready, arriving early December, with Premiums following right after. Let's also assume cars are shipped pretty quickly after production (as fast as they can fill train cars to distribution locations) with a four week delivery.

FCTP: By the end of November, all FCTP are delivered.
FE: By 11 December all FEs are delivered.
Others: That gives 2-1/2 weeks worth of Premiums, perhaps 3,200 cars, that may be delivered before the end of 2020. The rest of the MP2 run for North America is another 800 premiums and the Selects and CA Route 1s. Additional NA cars wait until Run 2 in January as the rest of Run 1 goes to EU/UK.

My most optimistic prediction has 2020 deliveries of:
All FCTP
ALL FE
3,200 Premiums.

We can assume 35% GTs, 15% FEs, so reservation holders up to 10,400 to perhaps 20,000 get cars in 2020 depending mostly on the ratio of NA to EU/UK cars in that first week of reservations. That means reservations made between the reveal on 11/17 and 11/19 will likely get their cars in 2020, maybe even those who reserved up until about 11/25.

If my guesses are right and production starts back up 11 January and production is divided 60/40 EU/NA, then by July the first 50,000 come out with NA deliveries continuing about 4 weeks after production. That should cover reservations through April or May plus all the GTs. After the GTs are produced, the last reservations and direct buyers (no reservation) arrive through the end of the year.

- #2, prolly take 3-4 weeks to get to dealers.
- You won't get 1400/wk until Oct 26
- Holidays will remove some production
- GT will be an added starter or Job 2
 
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Now let's model out some delivery vs reservation details for North American Cars.

Ford now is saying dealers will have FCTP cars in stores in late November. The official FCTP order information stated shipping late November. We've also had multiple sources confirm a 23 November OKTB schedule. This gives us three options:
  1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
  2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
  3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive late December (pushing FEs to January)
Let's be optimistic and assume (1) or (2), with FCTP shipped in early November for cars in stores for Thanksgiving weekend. Let's also assume First Editions go as soon as they are ready, arriving early December, with Premiums following right after. Let's also assume cars are shipped pretty quickly after production (as fast as they can fill train cars to distribution locations) with a four week delivery.

FCTP: By the end of November, all FCTP are delivered.
FE: By 11 December all FEs are delivered.
Others: That gives 2-1/2 weeks worth of Premiums, perhaps 3,200 cars, that may be delivered before the end of 2020. The rest of the MP2 run for North America is another 800 premiums and the Selects and CA Route 1s. Additional NA cars wait until Run 2 in January as the rest of Run 1 goes to EU/UK.

My most optimistic prediction has 2020 deliveries of:
All FCTP
ALL FE
3,200 Premiums.

We can assume 35% GTs, 15% FEs, so reservation holders up to 10,400 to perhaps 20,000 get cars in 2020 depending mostly on the ratio of NA to EU/UK cars in that first week of reservations. That means reservations made between the reveal on 11/17 and 11/19 will likely get their cars in 2020, maybe even those who reserved up until about 11/25.

If my guesses are right and production starts back up 11 January and production is divided 60/40 EU/NA, then by July the first 50,000 come out with NA deliveries continuing about 4 weeks after production. That should cover reservations through April or May plus all the GTs. After the GTs are produced, the last reservations and direct buyers (no reservation) arrive through the end of the year.
As @dbsb3233 pointed out:
https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-32295

So, here's the pessimistic version based on no shipments until OKTB (My option 3 above):

Now let's model out some delivery vs reservation details for North American Cars.

The official FCTP order information stated shipping late November. We've also had multiple sources confirm a 23 November OKTB schedule. This gives us three options:
  1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
  2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
  3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive late December (pushing FEs to January)
Let's be pessimistic and assume (3)

Assuming Mache E production and testing go fine but nothing is shipped until OKTB.

FCTP shipped 23 November for cars in stores for Christmas. This means simultaneous delivery of FCTP, First Edition and perhaps 3,000 Premiums. Mach E floods dealers across the country at Christmas leading to a mad rush of 4,000-5,000 buyers across the country madly trying to take test drives, make purchases and submit registration in time for 2020 tax credits. Total shit show.

We'll also assume cars are shipped pretty quickly after production (as fast as they can fill train cars to distribution locations) with a four week delivery.

FCTP: Shipped at the end of November, all FCTP are delivered around Christmas.
FE: All FEs are delivered around Christmas.
Others: That gives 2-1/2 weeks worth of Premiums, perhaps 3,200 cars, that may be delivered before the end of 2020. The rest of the MP2 run for North America is another 800 premiums and the Selects and CA Route 1s. Additional NA cars wait until Run 2 in January as the rest of Run 1 goes to EU/UK.

This pessimistic prediction still has 2020 deliveries of:
All FCTP
ALL FE
3,200 Premiums.
However, they all show up pretty much at once, perhaps over two weeks.

We can assume 35% GTs, 15% FEs, so reservation holders up to 10,400 to perhaps 20,000 get cars in 2020 depending mostly on the ratio of NA to EU/UK cars in that first week of reservations. That means reservations made between the reveal on 11/17 and 11/19 will likely get their cars in 2020, maybe even those who reserved up until about 11/25.

If my guesses are right and production starts back up 11 January and production is divided 60/40 EU/NA, then by July the first 50,000 come out with NA deliveries continuing about 4 weeks after production. That should cover reservations through April or May plus all the GTs. After the GTs are produced, the last reservations and direct buyers (no reservation) arrive through the end of the year.
 
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- #2, prolly take 3-4 weeks to get to dealers.
- You won't get 1400/wk until Oct 26
- Holidays will remove some production
- GT will be an added starter or Job 2
Look at the spreadsheet. Holidays are included. Production rate in 2020 ~1,000/week and not reaching 1,300 until January.
 


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FCTP shipped 23 November for cars in stores for Christmas. This means simultaneous delivery of FCTP, First Edition and perhaps 3,000 Premiums. Mach E floods dealers across the country at Christmas leading to a mad rush of 4,000-5,000 buyers across the country madly trying to take test drives, make purchases and submit registration in time for 2020 tax credits. Total shit show.
5000 cars across the country is really not that much. I‘ve read there are a little over 2000 dealers set up to sell these in the US. Each dealer won’t be getting very many cars...a rush of 5k should be nothing compared to the other vehicles Ford is selling in that same time.
 

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I've been following this thread but am wondering if I have missed a post.
I understand that there is an OKTB date but has anyone specifically said that the cars can't leave the plant until this date.
It is my opinion that the cars(FCTP &FE's) will be shipped to dealers before OKTB date. They will then be placed underwraps or possibly on show for you all to drool and salivate over. The dealers will then be in competition with each other to have the first on the road. And this way Ford get their "launch".
 
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5000 cars across the country is really not that much. I‘ve read there are a little over 2000 dealers set up to sell these in the US. Each dealer won’t be getting very many cars...a rush of 5k should be nothing compared to the other vehicles Ford is selling in that same time.
Yes but it is on top of existing business, plus COVID-19 and flu season combined. All 5,000 will want to buy fast. I don't have your faith in these dealers.
 

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Yeah I agree a "rush" of 5000 cars really is only 3-4 cars per dealer (maybe 1 or 2 per salesperson) not that big of an issue.

The dealer could get rid of all their Mach-E's in a single day.
 

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Yes but it is on top of existing business, plus COVID-19 and flu season combined. All 5,000 will want to buy fast. I don't have your faith in these dealers.
Mark, I also want to thank you for all your work & effort to provide all this detailed information. ?
 

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5000 cars across the country is really not that much. I‘ve read there are a little over 2000 dealers set up to sell these in the US. Each dealer won’t be getting very many cars...a rush of 5k should be nothing compared to the other vehicles Ford is selling in that same time.
Well it's about 1/4 of the annual 20,000 MME for NA, so not so baf in just a few months..
 
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Yeah I agree a "rush" of 5000 cars really is only 3-4 cars per dealer (maybe 1 or 2 per salesperson) not that big of an issue.

The dealer could get rid of all their Mach-E's in a single day.
Please remember that most dealerships have one person assigned to Mach E sales and we’ve all seen how well informed and prepared for orders. Is there something that makes you think they’ll be better prepared for sales?
 

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Please remember that most dealerships have one person assigned to Mach E sales and we’ve all seen how well informed and prepared for orders. Is there something that makes you think they’ll be better prepared for sales?
Perpared or not its only going to be a few cars per dealership--I think they can handle even 6 cars around Christmas (or between Christmas and New Years).

Besides I'm guessing most of the people picking up these early cars will be like us and already know more than the dealer. They will just toss us the keys and send us on our way (especially since we've already setup our profiles as soon as we got the VIN right??).
 

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I've been following this thread but am wondering if I have missed a post.
I understand that there is an OKTB date but has anyone specifically said that the cars can't leave the plant until this date.
It is my opinion that the cars(FCTP &FE's) will be shipped to dealers before OKTB date. They will then be placed under wraps or possibly on a show for you all to drool and salivate over. The dealers will then be in competition with each other to have the first on the road. And this way Ford get their "launch".
Nothing that is sold to the public can leave before oktb. That is on any vehicle by any manufacturer's government has to finish the testing.
The parking lot will be full of Mache ready to go. When ford gets the oktb. There will be a mad rush to get the mache loaded and shipped.

If everything goes as planned(fingers crossed) I kinda heard (wink cough) there will be big shipments of First editions hitting dealers very end of November, the start of December. Everything has to go right.

Vin numbers should start coming by the second week of October. The problem is I do not know the real total of FE that is being made. Once that is known, then can find out the day premium models will start being made. the order bank for the Mache is massive, orders, reservations, counting overseas. Seen it today. Hope to get a copy of a build sheet soon.
 

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It has been normal to get one thing from Ford or inside sources and something different from Dealers. It sounds like the Dealer is going off the FCTP order info (attached again). The move up is based on @trutolife27's source.
Thanks.
Yes, I believe he was going off the timeline in the FCTP order guide. I guess we'll just see what happens then. :)
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