Production runs & line output guesstimates

[SnBGC]

Nothing that is sold to the public can leave before oktb. That is on any vehicle by any manufacturer's government has to finish the testing.
The parking lot will be full of Mache ready to go. When ford gets the oktb. There will be a mad rush to get the mache loaded and shipped.

....

Thanks for that clarification. I think it helps some here with that specific question.
A "mad rush" to load and ship is an understatement. It's amazing how quickly those cars will be moved out of that lot once OKTB occurs. Full one day...empty the next. Ready to get filled up again, and again, and again. Those guys down in Mexico are going to be very busy for quite a long time. I wonder if the factory workers have any idea what the backlog is like?

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[portlandg]

Nothing that is sold to the public can leave before oktb. That is on any vehicle by any manufacturer's government has to finish the testing.
The parking lot will be full of Mache ready to go. When ford gets the oktb. There will be a mad rush to get the mache loaded and shipped.

If everything goes as planned(fingers crossed) I kinda heard (wink cough) there will be big shipments of First editions hitting dealers very end of November, the start of December. Everything has to go right.

Vin numbers should start coming by the second week of October. The problem is I do not know the real total of FE that is being made. Once that is known, then can find out the day premium models will start being made. the order bank for the Mache is massive, orders, reservations, counting overseas. Seen it today. Hope to get a copy of a build sheet soon.

That clears that up then. Thanks

 

[dbsb3233]

However, they all show up pretty much at once, perhaps over two weeks.

Might have a bit more than 2 weeks. If the Nov 23 OKTB date is correct, and if they've got 3000-4000 MMEs sitting in the lots at the plants ready to go, it's possible some could start arriving at US dealerships by maybe the 2nd week of Dec (probably in states like CA and TX). If they're already talking about a specific date for OKTB this far in advance, it must be a pretty solid date (as long as things go as planned). Which should give them plenty of time to be ready for the "heavy lift" to start loading and rolling the 24rd (I'm guessing).

I really don't know how many can be transported in a day. That would be an interesting study to find. I see 6 tracks of rail cars 5 deep in the sat photo. Usually they're double-deckers. Judging by the length of the cars in the lot, each railcar should hold 6x2 (12). 30 cars would be 360. If the can to one train/day, 6 days/week, that's ~2000/week.

EDIT: I just noticed that video is triple-decked. So maybe that's the norm. That would bump that up to by 50%.

I think I read somewhere that this plant used to crank out something like 150-200k vehicles a year at it's peak, so it must have the ability to handle even 4000/wk.

(That's all just my guesswork, of course.)

Here's a video of a train load happening somewhere (not this plant):



Here's a sat photo of the Cuautitlan plant rail via Google Maps:

 

[dbsb3233]

My contact indicated Ford did a major parking lot expansion to get ready for this. I'm guessing that it is primarily for stacking up the EU/UK units until the ship arrives.

Yeah, that huge piece of land in the SW corner of the property looks like it could hold many thousands if they cleared it and built a lot there too. In fact, it looks like part of it already was at one point (although you can see weeds growth through the pavement now). That may be the area they're talking about.

 

[Newbie]

If there are MME sitting in lots, we better be ready for the FUD....like we already experienced with the 15k dealer markup If cars are sitting in lots, it is because there is no demand and they are not selling....lol. Cars stockpiled, no demand

 

[dbsb3233]

If there are MME sitting in lots, we better be ready for the FUD....like we already experienced with the 15k dealer markup If cars are sitting in lots, it is because there is no demand and they are not selling....lol. Cars stockpiled, no demand

If they're sitting because they're not selling, perhaps. But this it completely the opposite of that. The MMEs will be collecting on the plant's lots for the first month because it's a brand-new model waiting for OKTB (government testing and the approval for sale to the public).

 

[RonTCat]

If they're sitting because they're not selling, perhaps. But this it completely the opposite of that. The MMEs will be collecting on the plant's lots for the first month because it's a brand-new model waiting for OKTB (government testing and the approval for sale to the public).

OKTB is purely a management discretion event. It is a quality assurance event, not tied to any gov testing.

I would expect the lot to be emptied in 1-2 days after OKTB is granted.

 

[trutolife27]

Few things

OKTB is purely a management discretion event. It is a quality assurance event, not tied to any gov testing.

I would expect the lot to be emptied in 1-2 days after OKTB is granted.

There is government testing is done before they can be shipped, been apart of it. The whole vehicle will be taken apart and the welds, rivets, and the adhesive will be tested. Info is entered into a database by ford and sent off. Had a sealer nose break off on bodyside. All the adhesive was out of place and units were a no go. Few items still on my phone from it.

 

[ChasingCoral]

It has been normal to get one thing from Ford or inside sources and something different from Dealers. It sounds like the Dealer is going off the FCTP order info (attached again). The move up is based on @trutolife27's source.

Sorry, forgot to attach the reminder:

 

[ChasingCoral]

Nothing that is sold to the public can leave before oktb. That is on any vehicle by any manufacturer's government has to finish the testing.
The parking lot will be full of Mache ready to go. When ford gets the oktb. There will be a mad rush to get the mache loaded and shipped.

If everything goes as planned(fingers crossed) I kinda heard (wink cough) there will be big shipments of First editions hitting dealers very end of November, the start of December. Everything has to go right.

Vin numbers should start coming by the second week of October. The problem is I do not know the real total of FE that is being made. Once that is known, then can find out the day premium models will start being made. the order bank for the Mache is massive, orders, reservations, counting overseas. Seen it today. Hope to get a copy of a build sheet soon.

Thanks for that clarification. That scratches my option 2 and keeps all FCTP, FEs and any others in Cuautitlan until OKTB.

Assuming 4 weeks shipping time, that suggests there is a plan to move up OKTB by almost a month (my optimistic option 1) as it was previously announced to be 23 November.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Might have a bit more than 2 weeks. If the Nov 23 OKTB date is correct, and if they've got 3000-4000 MMEs sitting in the lots at the plants ready to go, it's possible some could start arriving at US dealerships by maybe the 2nd week of Dec (probably in states like CA and TX). If they're already talking about a specific date for OKTB this far in advance, it must be a pretty solid date (as long as things go as planned). Which should give them plenty of time to be ready for the "heavy lift" to start loading and rolling the 24rd (I'm guessing).

I really don't know how many can be transported in a day. That would be an interesting study to find. I see 6 tracks of rail cars 5 deep in the sat photo. Usually they're double-deckers. Judging by the length of the cars in the lot, each railcar should hold 6x2 (12). 30 cars would be 360. If the can to one train/day, 6 days/week, that's ~2000/week.

EDIT: I just noticed that video is triple-decked. So maybe that's the norm. That would bump that up to by 50%.

I think I read somewhere that this plant used to crank out something like 150-200k vehicles a year at it's peak, so it must have the ability to handle even 4000/wk.

(That's all just my guesswork, of course.)

Here's a video of a train load happening somewhere (not this plant):



Here's a sat photo of the Cuautitlan plant rail via Google Maps:

Cool video!

Note the intel that FE deliveries start hitting dealers late November/early December and remember we heard FCTP to dealers in late November. That means they may be trying to push OKTB back to early November.

 

[dbsb3233]

Cool video!

Note the intel that FE deliveries start hitting dealers late November/early December and remember we heard FCTP to dealers in late November. That means they may be trying to push OKTB back to early November.

Here's more just pure speculation on my part (FWIW)...

IIRC trutolife27 said 2-3 weeks for deliver from the time it rolls off the assembly line. But I can't imagine it takes more than a few days for the railcars to get from the Cuautitlan plant to El Paso (~1100 miles), or to Los Angeles (~1800 miles). Or more than a week to most of the rest of the US (via a series of transfers). Then a few more days to unload from rail and load onto road transports to dealerships. If correct, that means most of that 2-3 weeks is prepping/queuing at the plant, waiting it's turn for the train. (Also designed in as an intentional buffer between the assembly line and the trains, so trains can still run at full capacity even if the plant slows down or stops for a few days).

If so, that could mean all that queuing and prepping could be done for the first few thousand units ahead of Nov 23 while they're just sitting on the lot waiting for OKTB. So maybe the first week's worth of deliveries could deliver in just 5-7 days? In which case some could arrive late-Nov/early-Dec? If they can do 500 per train, that could be ~2500 making it to the Southwest US by end the end of that week (Dec 5). And ~2500/week thru December while the queued-up inventory at the plant depletes.

Again, just thinking outloud.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Here's more just pure speculation on my part (FWIW)...

IIRC trutolife27 said 2-3 weeks for deliver from the time it rolls off the assembly line. But I can't imagine it takes more than a few days for the railcars to get from the Cuautitlan plant to El Paso (~1100 miles), or to Los Angeles (~1800 miles). Or more than a week to most of the rest of the US (via a series of transfers). Then a few more days to unload from rail and load onto road transports to dealerships. If correct, that means most of that 2-3 weeks is prepping/queuing at the plant, waiting it's turn for the train. (Also designed in as an intentional buffer between the assembly line and the trains, so trains can still run at full capacity even if the plant slows down or stops for a few days).

If so, that could mean all that queuing and prepping could be done for the first few thousand units ahead of Nov 23 while they're just sitting on the lot waiting for OKTB. So maybe the first week's worth of deliveries could deliver in just 5-7 days? In which case some could arrive late-Nov/early-Dec? If they can do 500 per train, that could be ~2500 making it to the Southwest US by end the end of that week (Dec 5). And ~2500/week thru December while the queued-up inventory at the plant depletes.

Again, just thinking outloud.

I like your thinking!

 

[Metal_Horses]

Has Ford (Or anyone) indicated how many customer orders have been taken so far? I was late with my reservation (July 23), so I'm wondering in what wave my order might get built in. Thanks

 

[ChasingCoral]

Has Ford (Or anyone) indicated how many customer orders have been taken so far? I was late with my reservation (July 23), so I'm wondering in what wave my order might get built in. Thanks

Not officially, no. All we have are guesses and rumors.

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