Production runs & line output guesstimates

[Honhme]

As I am finishing my current PHEV lease (Clarity) in April, and looking at the possible production run, I am thinking the best time to convert my reservation (Select) to an order is probably in November. Seems that the delivery date will be sometime in March or April. Does that seem correct? Appreciate any help from anyone.

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[timbop]

As I am finishing my current PHEV lease (Clarity) in April, and looking at the possible production run, I am thinking the best time to convert my reservation (Select) to an order is probably in November. Seems that the delivery date will be sometime in March or April. Does that seem correct? Appreciate any help from anyone.

If you believe some of the comments from the Ford insiders on here, you might want to convert your order sooner - like now.

 

[Honhme]

If you believe some of the comments from the Ford insiders on here, you might want to convert your order sooner - like now.

Thanks, will contact my dealer to see what specific information that they have.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Thanks, will contact my dealer to see what specific information that they have.

@timbop's right. Convert now. We really don't know for sure what the timing will be but once the demo units hit the dealers, conversions will be pushed back to next summer with new orders. I doubt your dealer will know much more than we do here -- which isn't a lot regarding timing.

 

[Marcel]

Just got a call from the dealer, no definitive VIN or build day yet, but planned build date november 20

 

[timbop]

Just got a call from the dealer, no definitive VIN or build day yet, but planned build date november 20

I have a feeling that is a general date for production, not your specific car. The dealers are just as uninformed as we are, it seems

 

[Marcel]

I have a feeling that is a general date for production, not your specific car. The dealers are just as uninformed as we are, it seems

please let me believe they are right...in a few weeks i should get a vin....i choose to believe this dealer

 

[RonTCat]

please let me believe they are right...in a few weeks i should get a vin....i choose to believe this dealer

VIN assignment is behind build scheduling by a few weeks.

 

[SnBGC]

I don't have anything new from the Scheduling Toolbox but do see this on the Fleet site. Nothing new though....just confirmation that Job #1 for customer cars is Oct 26th. I think that is nearly the same or exactly the same as what has been discussed here already.

Document date is Sept 25th so it's fairly current....

 

[efisher]

OK, time for version 6.

The changes are focused mostly on two things:
The 2021 end game: how many Mach Es can be made and by when (This post)
More delivery vs reservation details (next post)

Part of this comes from the great intel from @trutolife27 and inside source. This includes the belief by Ford that there are actually far more orders coming in, perhaps 70,000 and they plan to fill them (see https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...engineering-friends-in-mexico.1100/post-31714 and https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...engineering-friends-in-mexico.1100/post-31808)

With the plan for no C-shift, increased production is reached by increased time. Instead of ending Run 3 on 30 July, it has to be extended to 12 Nov. 2021, assuming a solid 1,300 per week production. That reaches 70,200 cars and a six-week buffer if they have to run long before hitting the 2021 Christmas break and end of legal 2021 production (31 Dec.). To reach the mentioned 80,000 requires 7-8 more weeks or faster production.

They are planning to deliver %50 more cars to Europe than the US. That does not seem right.

 

[ChasingCoral]

They are planning to deliver %50 more cars to Europe than the US. That does not seem right.

It's a business decision that saves them billions of dollars in EU fees. The EU has new fees in 2021 based on CO2 produced on all cars sold -- sort of like our CAFE standards but for CO2, not fuel efficiency. They have to reach a certain number of BEV sales to keep below the cap. We've known that since the time of the reveal last November.

The EU market for BEVs is also hotter than the US market.

 

[dbsb3233]

"fees" is a generous word for it. They're actually fines.

Ford is in good shape avoiding the fines though, due largely to hybrids...

https://fordauthority.com/2020/02/f...emissions-guidelines-without-incurring-fines/

 

[ChasingCoral]

"fees" is a generous word for it. They're actually fines.

Ford is in good shape though, due largely to hybrids...

https://fordauthority.com/2020/02/f...emissions-guidelines-without-incurring-fines/

In good shape in 2020, which allowed Ford to delay Mach E deliveries to EU/UK to early 2021. However, for 2021 the article reads: "The goal Ford has to hit to avoid penalties is a CO2 target of 96.6 grams per kilometer in 2021...The new target is significantly stricter than in 2018 when the figure was 122.7 grams per kilometer. Ford is relying mostly on hybrid vehicles, such as its new mild-hybrid Ford Puma. The all-electric Ford Mustang Mach-E will certainly help and is planned to go on sale in Europe by the end of the year. Ford also has the new Kuga compact SUV that is offered in a plug-in hybrid, full-hybrid, and mild-hybrid versions."

That analysis is from February and it will be interesting to see what Ford has to do to meet the 96.6 target. IIRC, the sale of 30,000 Mach Es is an essential part of meeting that 2021 target.

 

[I.Adams]

So it is! Mark, you are right! I told this some times here in this forum. Please, don't misunderstand my point of view, but FORDs discussion to sell the MME first in the states was a billion dollar step.
Let me explain it: when VW sells a brand new Golf (104 gr Co2/100km) it have to pay 1714$ [1450€]. 9gr more than allowed. In 2025 in Europe the CO2 mark will sink down to 65 gr CO2 /100km.

 

[Johnny]

The official FCTP order information stated shipping late November. We've also had multiple sources confirm a 23 November OKTB schedule. This gives us three options:

1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive late December (pushing FEs to January)

I would like to throw in a total optimistic guess in the ring here and say lets go for Option (1). Here's why:

On or around October 28, 2020, Ford announces earnings for the quarter ended September 30, 2020. This is key for them, and they often do include key announcements on earnings release day.

How great would it be for them to announce that production is ahead of "schedule" (at least the publicly released schedule), they've reached full production capacity, OKTB was moved up and they were able to deliver their first First Edition Mustang Mach-E!

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