Production runs & line output guesstimates

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It says scheduling begins on 8-20 not ends. The scheduling will have to be iterative to account for new order conversions through the model year. I think if you want to be in one of the early batches you would want to convert before 8-20.
You're absolutely right about scheduling beginning. You certainly know more about how this works than I do. Perhaps you can provide some insight: Once they reach 8/20 will they schedule a batch of vehicle builds, start ordering etc. against the parts list and then the next orders will go into a next schedule? I would think once they identify a batch of vehicles they schedule they wouldn't change it and new orders would go on the next batch.
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I'm starting this as a new thread as it contains a whole series of guesstimates you can use to see when your Mach E MIGHT be produced.

Let's assume they will keep the Cuautitlan plant going with continuous production from Mach E job #1 through the GTs. I'll also assume the 4000 dealer demos and specials are run at a slower rate before the start of job #1, that makes 46,000 units. From 26 October through the end of the year is 8 weeks. Three weeks off for Christmas through Three Kings Day means a restart 11 January. The next run is 12 weeks until Good Friday, 2 April. Another 2 week break and a restart 19 April gives us 15 weeks through the end of July. 35 weeks. That allows for US delivery of GTs in late summer. There may also need to be some downtime to reset the line before the start of the GTs.

That gives us an estimated average line production rate of 1300 cars per week, 260 per day. So realistically we are probably looking at between 1000-1500 cars per week or 200-300 per day.

Further assumptions (and lots of guesses):
~3,000 First Editions (Best estimates range from a low of 3,000 total to no more than 10% of the total. Final number depends on if non-converted FE reservations are opened up or if the only build the numbers left of those who initially reserved.
~30% GTs (based on https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2019/12/30/mustang-mach-e-first-edition-reservation-facts.html?cks=&emailid=Article Alert Ford)

In the US, let's assume 5% FE, 25% GT, 50% Premium, 15% Select, 5% CA Route 1
(based on one reservation and one order database)
In Europe let's assume 20% AWD, 60% RWD (based on reservation database and a guess of 20% GTs)

Total units:
20,000 US: 1,000 FEs, 5,000 GTs, 10,000 Premium, 3,000 Select, 1,000 CA Route 1
30,000 EU: 18,000 RWD, 6,000 AWD, 6,000 GTs

Working with these numbers:
Run 1 focuses on getting out as many US cars as possible
26 October-23 December 8 weeks 8,000-12,000 Mach Es

This will be 1,000 FEs, 5,000- Premiums, 1000-1,500 Selects, 500 CA Route 1

Run 2 focuses on getting out as many EU cars as possible
11 January-2 April 12 weeks 12,000-18,000 Mach Es

Run 3 gets out the rest of the Mach Es, including all GTs
19 April-30 July 15 weeks 15,000-22,500 Mach Es

That models out to:

1594141172823.png


You can compare your reservation numbers against these to get an idea of the run in which your Mach E MIGHT be produced. The latest reservation number is over 80,000.

Fire away with corrections to my math or your theories.
Wow, you have a lot of free time on your hands. I'm thankful you're on this board though. Your insight is invaluable. I always wonder if Ford management reads these posts and just chuckles at our pain and assumptions.
 

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You're absolutely right about scheduling beginning. You certainly know more about how this works than I do. Perhaps you can provide some insight: Once they reach 8/20 will they schedule a batch of vehicle builds, start ordering etc. against the parts list and then the next orders will go into a next schedule? I would think once they identify a batch of vehicles they schedule they wouldn't change it and new orders would go on the next batch.
That sounds like what I would expect as well. The production jobs would be sequenced iteratively by time stamps as orders come in.
 

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I'm guessing fairly low, as I doubt they have 50,000 reservations, or at least 50,000 follow-thrus. It's still an expensive car, and with the virus-induced recession, I suspect a number of reservations canceled.
I'm with you....I doubt Ford will sell 50,000 Mach-E at the onset. Many people probably just put forth a reservation to hold their spot in line "in case" they wanted to pull the trigger. Economic unrest, a late 1st / early 2nd wave of COVID is happening, people may choose the Model Y, etc....too many questions.
 


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I'm with you....I doubt Ford will sell 50,000 Mach-E at the onset. Many people probably just put forth a reservation to hold their spot in line "in case" they wanted to pull the trigger. Economic unrest, a late 1st / early 2nd wave of COVID is happening, people may choose the Model Y, etc....too many questions.
We also have heard that some folks are making direct orders now -- folks without reservations. Of course, they fall at the back of the line.
 

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I'm with you....I doubt Ford will sell 50,000 Mach-E at the onset. Many people probably just put forth a reservation to hold their spot in line "in case" they wanted to pull the trigger. Economic unrest, a late 1st / early 2nd wave of COVID is happening, people may choose the Model Y, etc....too many questions.
From reservations, anyway. I don't think Ford will have any problem selling all 50,000. But I expect a number of them will be from stock like normal, next Spring/Summer (whenever pre-orders are completed).
 

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I would assume that GTs are at 6,000 given that Ford has identified those reservations at 30%.
In fact, they could be more than that if one’s willing to assume that GTs are more popular in N.A. than the E.U. — in other words, although worldwide GT orders are approximately an average 30% of all orders, they may be higher in U.S. than Europe... so we may see more than 6,000 GTs for the U.S. market.
The GT version is not available yet this side of the pond. We can't reserve/preorder yet so you can take that out of the equation.
 
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The GT version is not available yet this side of the pond. We can't reserve/preorder yet so you can take that out of the equation.
Gotcha thanks. I’ll make that adjustment in v2 of the model.
 

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I'm starting this as a new thread as it contains a whole series of guesstimates you can use to see when your Mach E MIGHT be produced.

Let's assume they will keep the Cuautitlan plant going with continuous production from Mach E job #1 through the GTs. I'll also assume the 4000 dealer demos and specials are run at a slower rate before the start of job #1, that makes 46,000 units. From 26 October through the end of the year is 8 weeks. Three weeks off for Christmas through Three Kings Day means a restart 11 January. The next run is 12 weeks until Good Friday, 2 April. Another 2 week break and a restart 19 April gives us 15 weeks through the end of July. 35 weeks. That allows for US delivery of GTs in late summer. There may also need to be some downtime to reset the line before the start of the GTs.

That gives us an estimated average line production rate of 1300 cars per week, 260 per day. So realistically we are probably looking at between 1000-1500 cars per week or 200-300 per day.

Further assumptions (and lots of guesses):
~3,000 First Editions (Best estimates range from a low of 3,000 total to no more than 10% of the total. Final number depends on if non-converted FE reservations are opened up or if the only build the numbers left of those who initially reserved.
~30% GTs (based on https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2019/12/30/mustang-mach-e-first-edition-reservation-facts.html?cks=&emailid=Article Alert Ford)

In the US, let's assume 5% FE, 25% GT, 50% Premium, 15% Select, 5% CA Route 1
(based on one reservation and one order database)
In Europe let's assume 20% AWD, 60% RWD (based on reservation database and a guess of 20% GTs)

Total units:
20,000 US: 1,000 FEs, 5,000 GTs, 10,000 Premium, 3,000 Select, 1,000 CA Route 1
30,000 EU: 18,000 RWD, 6,000 AWD, 6,000 GTs

Working with these numbers:
Run 1 focuses on getting out as many US cars as possible
26 October-23 December 8 weeks 8,000-12,000 Mach Es

This will be 1,000 FEs, 5,000- Premiums, 1000-1,500 Selects, 500 CA Route 1

Run 2 focuses on getting out as many EU cars as possible
11 January-2 April 12 weeks 12,000-18,000 Mach Es

Run 3 gets out the rest of the Mach Es, including all GTs
19 April-30 July 15 weeks 15,000-22,500 Mach Es

That models out to:

1594141172823.png


You can compare your reservation numbers against these to get an idea of the run in which your Mach E MIGHT be produced. The latest reservation number is over 80,000.

Fire away with corrections to my math or your theories.
You obviously have far to much time on your hands. Are you still in lockdown? Your computations are very good and I (almost) agree with your figures. My only issue is with your run 2. I agree that the first batch of cars made will be for your market just so Ford can say they met their 2020 delivery target. This side of the pond we have been told 'early2021' which to me means Q1 (Jan - Mar). Your run 2 puts UK/EUR production 11 Jan - 2 Apr. My issue with this scenario is this. Given the time it takes to ship from Mexico to UK/EUR, if they don't start ours until 11 Jan it is very unlikely that the 'early 2021' (Q1) delivery will be met. I have looked at the shipping routes that I could find and travel estimates range from 23 days (direct MXVER - GBSTN) to 65 days (round robin route). I would like the following to happen. However, I have NO inside knowledge of how a production line works apart from when I followed my factory order Kuga through the process with the help of my local dealer. #1 starts at the beginning of the line on 26 Oct. This is a US First Edition. Theory is that there is 3000 FE's (1500 each for US and UK/EUR). Allowing for a slow start and a steady increase in speed this could be 2 weeks production. I can't see that there is any problems in running LHD and RHD on the same line. Next, the Premiums. The next 6 weeks could then potentially see approx 9000 cars made, most LHD but a few RHD. Ford could then ship before Christmas UK/EUR FE's and some Premium's ( I will call ours Premiums for the sake of argument). These could then arrive in time to fall within the 'early 2021' date. This way some US owners will be happy (nice Christmas present) and some early UK/EUR owners will have a late Christmas present. Given what everyone has been through I would be happy with that. As we have no idea when UK/EUR orders are to be confirmed, and no idea on how those orders will be allocated my 100414xx reservation number is looking very unlikely for a Q1 delivery. My birthday is in May and I am now thinking that I will be getting a nice birthday present. I, like a lot of you, am very frustrated by all of this non information from Ford, but having seen the car in the flesh I am prepared to wait for as long as it takes. AS long as it is not too long eh !!!!!
 
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You obviously have far to much time on your hands. Are you still in lockdown? Your computations are very good and I (almost) agree with your figures. My only issue is with your run 2. I agree that the first batch of cars made will be for your market just so Ford can say they met their 2020 delivery target. This side of the pond we have been told 'early2021' which to me means Q1 (Jan - Mar). Your run 2 puts UK/EUR production 11 Jan - 2 Apr. My issue with this scenario is this. Given the time it takes to ship from Mexico to UK/EUR, if they don't start ours until 11 Jan it is very unlikely that the 'early 2021' (Q1) delivery will be met. I have looked at the shipping routes that I could find and travel estimates range from 23 days (direct MXVER - GBSTN) to 65 days (round robin route). I would like the following to happen. However, I have NO inside knowledge of how a production line works apart from when I followed my factory order Kuga through the process with the help of my local dealer. #1 starts at the beginning of the line on 26 Oct. This is a US First Edition. Theory is that there is 3000 FE's (1500 each for US and UK/EUR). Allowing for a slow start and a steady increase in speed this could be 2 weeks production. I can't see that there is any problems in running LHD and RHD on the same line. Next, the Premiums. The next 6 weeks could then potentially see approx 9000 cars made, most LHD but a few RHD. Ford could then ship before Christmas UK/EUR FE's and some Premium's ( I will call ours Premiums for the sake of argument). These could then arrive in time to fall within the 'early 2021' date. This way some US owners will be happy (nice Christmas present) and some early UK/EUR owners will have a late Christmas present. Given what everyone has been through I would be happy with that. As we have no idea when UK/EUR orders are to be confirmed, and no idea on how those orders will be allocated my 100414xx reservation number is looking very unlikely for a Q1 delivery. My birthday is in May and I am now thinking that I will be getting a nice birthday present. I, like a lot of you, am very frustrated by all of this non information from Ford, but having seen the car in the flesh I am prepared to wait for as long as it takes. AS long as it is not too long eh !!!!!
Thanks @portlandg.

V2 of my model will adjust a few things based on input I've been getting:
1) No EU/UK GTs
2) US orders become North American orders to include Canada
3) Run 1 should include all FE production to get them all done at once
4) Run 1 should include some EU/UK models

But, one thing your description doesn't account for is that they are promising to start US delivery of all non-GT models in late 2020. I'm also not sure the rate change is necessary as what isn't in here is Run 0: I assumed production of the "first 4000" dealer demos and such before Job #1. That is when I'm hypothesizing the slow start occurs. That also partly explains why my contact at Cuautitlan thinks production work may begin in August but Job #1 isn't until October.
 

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Thanks @portlandg.

V2 of my model will adjust a few things based on input I've been getting:
1) No EU/UK GTs
2) US orders become North American orders to include Canada
3) Run 1 should include all FE production to get them all done at once
4) Run 1 should include some EU/UK models

But, one thing your description doesn't account for is that they are promising to start US delivery of all non-GT models in late 2020. I'm also not sure the rate change is necessary as what isn't in here is Run 0: I assumed production of the "first 4000" dealer demos and such before Job #1. That is when I'm hypothesizing the slow start occurs. That also partly explains why my contact at Cuautitlan thinks production work may begin in August but Job #1 isn't until October.
You are correct (again) of course. I had forgotten that your Select and California Route 1 delivery dates had moved from early 2021 to late 2020 but there is no way that they will get all vehicles to early adopters before year end. All they need to deliver is at least one of each and they have met their target. If, as you say, the first 4000 cars are dealer demos then that helps us over here a bit I think. There is 2100 EV accredited dealers over there (so I believe) so assuming 1 per dealer so that leaves 1900 for us over here. 1500 FE's makes 3400. Most vehicle RoRo's can carry about 8000 cars so another 4600 would make a boat load. Assume that is 4 weeks production then if Ford chartered a ship for themselves they could ship all these before Christmas for delivery in Q1. That would still give them time to make some more for you for delivery before year end. Therefore Ford wins (by delivering late 2020, early 2021 as stated) and some of us get lucky while others have to wait a bit longer. Another thing, if all goes well in August with what ever they produce there is always the possibility that #1 could start early. The 26 Oct date might be a 'start by' date rather than an 'on' date. Press releases always seem to be a bit ambiguous and are read differently by different people. Just (another) thought
 

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OK, I’ll take my turn at playing “Carnac The Magnificent”.
Probably showing my age here and a lot of posters here will have no idea what this phrase means.

We can gleam some info from the Mach-E Submitted Order list here on the forum, which has about 131 converted orders. It has a couple of issues though which need consideration --- the GT reservations are not open to convert yet and the CA Route 1 / Select have a long time window until Dec 31 to convert.

There are only 2 CA Route 1 orders and 3 Select orders on the list out of the 131 orders, not likely ratios.

My estimates for N.A. production are pretty close to yours --- FE’s about 1,000 higher and Select’s about 1,000 lower.

2020 – 2021 N.A. Mach-E Production (20,000 Total)
First Edition 10% 2,000
Premium 50% 10,000
CA Route 1 5% 1,000
Select 10% 2,000
GT 25% 5,000

I still think we may have an October Surprise here and production runs will start at the beginning of October rather than the end.
SD--For those who do not understand your reference to Carnac, they should look for a message inside the envelope stored in the mayonnaise jar that has been kept on Funk and Wagnall's porch since noon today.
 

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SD--For those who do not understand your reference to Carnac, they should look for a message inside the envelope stored in the mayonnaise jar that has been kept on Funk and Wagnall's porch since noon today.
Yep, that is where I got the envelope from.
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