Production runs & line output guesstimates

[LiquidError]

Haven't looked at this thread in awhile, but unless I'm reading this incorrectly, you all are predicting my Nov. 19 reservation (number 12k something) and order converted June 30 to likely come this year. I hope the prediction comes true!

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[Kamuelaflyer]

No. The EU rules are very different and very strict. I think the Germans wrote them.

It would appear so:

https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en

 

[trutolife27]

Let the fun began. Next week should be interesting. Bodyshop is already getting shells ready this week.

 

[RonTCat]

No. The EU rules are very different and very strict. I think the Germans wrote them.

Browsing the EU regs, they are similar to CAFE, but it looks like you can pool credits, but you can't carry them over between model years. But like any regs, nothing is really straightforward, you need a team to figure them out, lol.

Looks like maybe only Daimler and VW have work to do in this area. Electric vehicles are a two-fer, you kinda get a super credit for them. Sell one EV, get a 5.0L ICE for free.

 

[AndyS_OSU]

Let the fun began. Next week should be interesting. Bodyshop is already getting shells ready this week.

Is that ahead of schedule or mostly in line with how this process was to play out?

 

[ChasingCoral]

Is that ahead of schedule or mostly in line with how this process was to play out?

I heard the body shop has about a 1000 car lead on production. That's about how much storage space they have. They'll be balancing their number of shifts to keep that in place.

 

[makooy]

@ChasingCoral I'm keeping an eye on the Dutch orders on a Tech website and multiple buyers have received a delivery date between week 6 and week 13.

If the car is delivered in week 6, it's impossible that it's build in 2021 as it takes at least 32 days on a ship and at least 7 days between port > transport > customer delivery.
Then i haven't calculated time from plant > ship.

Lets say 42 days in total, from plant to customer. which is 6 weeks.
week 6 delivery - 6 weeks = production in last week of 2020.

Ford NL also mentioned to me that they target to do the first deliveries to customers on 10-feb.

 

[portlandg]

No. The EU rules are very different and very strict. I think the Germans wrote them.

And

@ChasingCoral I'm keeping an eye on the Dutch orders on a Tech website and multiple buyers have received a delivery date between week 6 and week 13.

If the car is delivered in week 6, it's impossible that it's build in 2021 as it takes at least 32 days on a ship and at least 7 days between port > transport > customer delivery.
Then i haven't calculated time from plant > ship.

Lets say 42 days in total, from plant to customer. which is 6 weeks.
week 6 delivery - 6 weeks = production in last week of 2020.

Ford NL also mentioned to me that they target to do the first deliveries to customers on 10-feb.

This falls in line with my earlier estimates of production/delivery. UK deliveries are slated for early 2021 and I have said that to get to that date our cars need to be made in DEC to be shipped just before/after Christmas. My thinking is that they will send EUR cars on the same ship so your production should follow the same timeline. Glad I am not the only one who thinks this.

 

[makooy]

And
This falls in line with my earlier estimates of production/delivery. UK deliveries are slated for early 2021 and I have said that to get to that date our cars need to be made in DEC to be shipped just before/after Christmas. My thinking is that they will send EUR cars on the same ship so your production should follow the same timeline. Glad I am not the only one who thinks this.

We, as Dutch buyers, receive 2000 in "batch 1" which should be handed over to customers between week 6 and week 13.
I don't know how many Mach-E's are sold in "batch 1" in other EU-countries.
As far as Ford announced, the car was quite popular in Norway and all "batch 1"-orders are fully booked as Ford mentioned.

 

[ChasingCoral]

@ChasingCoral I'm keeping an eye on the Dutch orders on a Tech website and multiple buyers have received a delivery date between week 6 and week 13.

If the car is delivered in week 6, it's impossible that it's build in 2021 as it takes at least 32 days on a ship and at least 7 days between port > transport > customer delivery.
Then i haven't calculated time from plant > ship.

Lets say 42 days in total, from plant to customer. which is 6 weeks.
week 6 delivery - 6 weeks = production in last week of 2020.

Ford NL also mentioned to me that they target to do the first deliveries to customers on 10-feb.

Thanks. That’s valuable Intel. Because of the early ordering in the Netherlands, Dutch buyers may get the earliest EU shipments. On the other hand, slow production in Cuautitlan may result in this being pushed back again. Let’s see what kind of dates come out of the water flow as we starting hearing new production dates from folks on this list.

 

[Shayne]

^^^^ It is not business as usual and it is gr8 to see a few more out in the wild. Appears to be progressing in the right direction and if we all stay safe it could continue. Like most; they are likely ahead of schedule and under budget .

 

[makooy]

@ChasingCoral you can make a new guesstimate as i got new information from my dealer.

They have around 20 Mach-E's in their system, all "Batch 1" cars - the first 2000 cars for NL.
As far as my contact could see and tell:
- cars got their VIN's assigned 1,5 week ago
- production week of 20-nov-2020
- delivery at dealer week of 20-feb-2021

He also thought that all Batch 1 Mach-E's (2000 cars for NL) would be build in the weeks before/in/after 20-november, then would be shipped on a boat at the same time to Europe.

So Europe first, USA second

 

[ChasingCoral]

@ChasingCoral you can make a new guesstimate as i got new information from my dealer.

They have around 20 Mach-E's in their system, all "Batch 1" cars - the first 2000 cars for NL.
As far as my contact could see and tell:
- cars got their VIN's assigned 1,5 week ago
- production week of 20-nov-2020
- delivery at dealer week of 20-feb-2021

He also thought that all Batch 1 Mach-E's (2000 cars for NL) would be build in the weeks before/in/after 20-november, then would be shipped on a boat at the same time to Europe.

So Europe first, USA second

Are these lease vehicles or individual purchase? It appears that a large group of lease vehicles are in the early weeks of production. That would explain the early Dutch production -- big purchases talk.

Additionally, It looks like Canadian cars are early in the production. Remember that they had to pre-order cars, theirs was not a reservation system.

Edit: The leases I'm talking about are effectively fleet purchases. Remember that in the Netherlands there are a couple of companies supplying a large number of cars on lease. Those companies are buying large numbers of cars. Don't forget there are also a lot of internal Ford leases.

 

[makooy]

Are these lease vehicles or individual purchase? It appears that a large group of lease vehicles are in the early weeks of production. That would explain the early Dutch production -- big purchases talk.

Additionally, It looks like Canadian cars are early in the production. Remember that they had to pre-order cars, theirs was not a reservation system.

Both, lease or private purchase doesn't make a difference for Ford.
I know that this dealer has some private buyers which i am 1 from, most are lease.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Both, lease or private purchase doesn't make a difference for Ford.
I know that this dealer has some private buyers which i am 1 from, most are lease.

I'm not talking one-off leases. I'm talking fleet purchases. I'll clarify my earlier post.

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