Production runs & line output guesstimates

[Kamuelaflyer]

Version 10
Hold onto that chicken handle over the window of your Mach E because we have just accelerated fast like BEVs do best!

GT style torque or RWD SR torque?

Just kidding. Thanks for the update, your efforts are appreciated.

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[ChasingCoral]

GT style torque or RWD SR torque?

Just kidding. Thanks for the update, your efforts are appreciated.

You know, after a certain point it just doesn't matter any more!

 

[makooy]

@ChasingCoral if my research ( https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/dutch-people-that-ordered-a-mach-e.539/page-34#post-54700) is correct a RoRo-vessel will leave Port of Veracruz on 17-jan-21 heading to Europe, expected around 9-feb-21 at Port of Antwerp.

I do know the vessel name and the shipping company states that 4900 CUE can fit that vessel.
CUE = Car Equivalent Units

So in best case AND if i'm correct a delivery of maximum 4900 Mach-E's is done around 9-feb-21 at the Port of Antwerp.

 

[hybrid2bev]

Version 10
Hold onto that chicken handle over the window of your Mach E because we have just accelerated fast like BEVs do best!

Based on the new video at https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/mustang-mach-e-presentation-inside-mexico-plant.1928/ and intel provided by our best inside sources, the line seems to be running at 20 vehicles per hour.

This morning, @trutolife27 said:

with a subsequent update:


The new line calculation seems to be:
2*7*5*20 = 1,400 cars per week now
and
2*7*5*26 = 1,820 cars per week after November 26th.
I'm going to cut 10% off those to be a little conservative.

If these are correct, that means the production rates are much higher than even the optimistic estimates I used before:

That means up to 13,000 Mach Es produced by the end of December.
It also means they can reach at least 70,000 vehicles in the first run by the end of July, increasing North American deliveries from 20,000 to ~40,000. This is consistent with some of the demand numbers we've heard on here.

From today's build date assignments, combined with the Dutch build dates from @makooy and information from @portlandg and others about impending order conversions in the UK, I think we'll see a limited EU/UK production in December followed by simultaneous NA and EU/UK production starting in January.

Therefore I currently estimate with ~11,000 cars to North America in 2020 (~2,000 FCTP and ~9,000 customer cars) and 2,000 for EU/UK. Even so, that's a lot of cars!

Even I find these numbers a bit hard to believe!

FWIW I'll add another data point.

I was assigned the week of Dec 7th and I did some digging in vehicle visibility. My build date was set for Dec 10th with rotation number 529X. Then on Nov 2nd my build date was updated to Dec 8th and rotation number 494X. So I moved up 2 days and 357 spots in the production sequence.

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[methorian]

FWIW I'll add another data point.

I was assigned the week of Dec 7th and I did some digging in vehicle visibility. My build date was set for Dec 10th with rotation number 529X. Then on Nov 2nd my build date was updated to Dec 8th and rotation number 494X. So I moved up 2 days and 357 spots in the production sequence.

Premium 4X

How far out do you think specific days are scheduled to? Just curious when I should nag my dealer for a specific build day, currently show week of December 13th on my order page.

I'm going to guess I'm towards the end of the 13th week, since I was originally week of Dec 21st, but it moved up to 13th shortly after initially getting the e-mail (this may have been around when yours moved up from the 10th to the 8th).

 

[hybrid2bev]

How far out do you think specific days are scheduled to? Just curious when I should nag my dealer for a specific build day, currently show week of December 13th on my order page.

I'm going to guess I'm towards the end of the 13th week, since I was originally week of Dec 21st, but it moved up to 13th shortly after initially getting the e-mail (this may have been around when yours moved up from the 10th to the 8th).

I don't know. I just used my VIN to look up my order.

I would assume that if you have a build week, then you have been assigned a specific date within that week (but that day of the week could change which is probably why they just give the production week figure).

 

[ChasingCoral]

FWIW I'll add another data point.

I was assigned the week of Dec 7th and I did some digging in vehicle visibility. My build date was set for Dec 10th with rotation number 529X. Then on Nov 2nd my build date was updated to Dec 8th and rotation number 494X. So I moved up 2 days and 357 spots in the production sequence.

Premium 4X

So if we assume there are 357 spots in 2 days, that's about 180 per day or 900 per week.

Of course we don't know that you moved exactly 2 days in the sequence. It could have ended up much earlier or much later in that day than before. While 900 per week is less than the 1,400, a move from early the original day to late the 2nd day before would be totally consistent with 1,400 per week. Broad error bars there but I'll take it!

Thanks
Mark

 

[ChasingCoral]

I don't know. I just used my VIN to look up my order.

I would assume that if you have a build week, then you have been assigned a specific date within that week (but that day of the week could change which is probably why they just give the production week figure).

IIRC, some people were saying the build day wasn't scheduled right away when the build week came out but was scheduled as we got within about a month of build week. TIFWIW

 

[ChasingCoral]

Hey @trutolife27 : Do you know if they are running a C shift yet?

 

[trutolife27]

Hey @trutolife27 : Do you know if they are running a C shift yet?

no still only 2

 

[RonTCat]

no still only 2

Plant labor is not the constraining production factor.

 

[trutolife27]

Plant labor is not the constraining production factor.

"looks around" Did I say it was? line speed, parts, outbound inbound is.

 

[RonTCat]

"looks around" Did I say it was? line speed, parts, outbound inbound is.

Replied to the wrong post.?‍

 

[trutolife27]

Replied to the wrong post.?‍

Ok you see sales? pretty good consider still clearing out the loss of not making cars.

 

[RonTCat]

Ok you see sales? pretty good consider still clearing out the loss of not making cars.

I would say sales were better than expected.

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