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Production runs & line output guesstimates

portlandg

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For information, there are 38 Ford VE dealers in France.
I do not know what FCTP is, my dealer told me to have to order his own two demonstration vehicles (2 dealerships in his name) by the same diagram as us online ....
I think there is about the same number of dealers who are able to sell the MME in the UK
 

PSaulet

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Really not sure there are 1000 Ford VE dealers in Europe / UK
 

I.Adams

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In Europe are more than 200 (so called) Ford Stores who are allowed to sell MMEs. Not all Ford stores have made a contract with FORD to sell the ponies. The reason is that they earn only 800€ per MME.
 
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ChasingCoral

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In Europe are more than 200 (so called) Ford Stores who are allowed to sell MMEs. Not all Ford stores have made a contract with FORD to sell the ponies. The reason is that they earn only 800€ per MME.
I was guessing two demos per dealer (one now, one in several months) but also guessing 500 dealers. You can probably cut those dealer units for UK/EU in half then.
 

GregM

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This is such an interesting topic - I am glad Ford hasn't put anything out yet, as I would not have learned so much about car production and shipping- totally being serious...it is sometimes fun to speculate.

It would make sense that demos are done before Job #1 in October...these are production cars but not for pre-orders, so if Ford is saying pre-orders are kicking off with Job #1 in October, that guess seems right.

I also think we will have more information once the FE reservation/order window closes by the 31st.

I do seem to think that Ford needs to deliver more than a handful of cars by Dec 31 to meet their US goals - at least from a PR/IR perspective, they will get hammered if they don't significantly come through, especially since they moved up the Select/Rt. 1 deliveries for the US. They wouldn't have moved those goal posts from early 2021 if they didn't think they could make it in a meaningful way.
 
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ChasingCoral

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It would make sense that demos are done before Job #1 in October...these are production cars but not for pre-orders, so if Ford is saying pre-orders are kicking off with Job #1 in October, that guess seems right.
That was my guess as well but the call to dealers to order FCTP demos clearly shows the Cuautitlan plant won't start producing those demo units until mid-November.
 

RobertP

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For Netherlands alone there were 2500 cars available to order for 2020 (delivery -now- early 2021). As far as I know 'about all of them' have been sold/ordered.

And what I think is that each country was assigned a different number, so not evenly distributed over the countries. I heard Norway and Netherlands got about the same number and also the UK is a more popular EV country.
 

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Well I would hope that not all of the CA Rt1's go to dealers from the first production run--there are some of us early reservation holders that would like to get ours before the end of the year ;)
 

FredT

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That was my guess as well but the call to dealers to order FCTP demos clearly shows the Cuautitlan plant won't start producing those demo units until mid-November.
Do you have any idea of how this relates to review units and cars that go for EPA testing? Thanks for all the effort you put in this.
 

SnBGC

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Too bad we dont know how many NE reservation holders converted their orders. If only 200 folks bothered to participate in the "Order Converted Roll Call" thread then it doesnt look too good for sales......at least here in America.

On the other hand.....there are at least 200 of us that are willing to order the car without seeing it in person. Probably a variety of reason for that which is a whole other thread entirely.

As far as First Editions go....I would expect Ford has a specific production figure in mind and they will build all those cars regardless. Are there First Edition reservations holders for the EU market? If so, then all FEs likely wont be front loaded on the production schedule. It would only make sense to schedule NA FE confirmed orders for production and then build confirmed Premium orders etc.

I presume there will be some connection with the number of confirmed orders in NA and the volume of pre assembly stamping since you mentioned the shared labor role situation. Those panels can stack and store for quite some time without rust concerns. The stamping oil and climate will allow for a wide window there.
 
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ChasingCoral

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Do you have any idea of how this relates to review units and cars that go for EPA testing? Thanks for all the effort you put in this.
No idea. However, it is clear that some get tested for EPA (remember that dealers run the EPA tests, cars aren't "sent to EPA". Those can be used for other things. The ones tested for NHTSA crash tests are another matter.
 

mountp

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How can we guessimate that our order will be in the first production run?
 

mamejunkie

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How can we guessimate that our order will be in the first production run?
Go back to the first post and look at the chart. Do some math based on your reservation and trim. You should have a idea how likely your order will be in the first run or not.
 

dbsb3233

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If only 200 folks bothered to participate in the "Order Converted Roll Call" thread then it doesnt look too good for sales......at least here in America.
Hard to really say. That's just out of the active members on these forums, and mostly just the US ones (only a couple of countries outside the US could place orders yet). While there's almost 1200 members in these forums, many are from outside the US, and many are non-active (people that popped in somewhere along the way out of curiosity and haven't been back since). Or people just doing research, that never had a reservation.

200 confirmed orders could be anywhere from 40% to 80% of the active US forum members here.
 

ajmartineau

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How many completed orders are there... that’s the million dollar question. Ford is not saying.
 



 









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