Production runs & line output guesstimates

[portlandg]

It is a total guess - the fact that Ford moved up the Select and Rt. 1 deliveries in NA to late 2020 has me scratching my head at what that means for the delivery of Premiums...I ordered a Premium mainly because it would be here before the Rt. 1...so will a person who ordered a Rt. 1 now get it before I get my Premium??? Seems odd, and out of alignment...from a marketing standpoint, it makes no sense that Ford would sacrifice Premium consumers in that way.

We have discussed that FE folks had to convert their ressies to orders by July 31, but that it didn't really matter to the run schedule, since all FE would be run regardless at the same time...and Premium folks (and I guess all others) had to covert their ressies to orders by the end of the year (correct?) - so it is still a guess at how Ford will prioritize its build schedule - I cant fathom that it is completely off what order number we have - maybe if they didn't pull up the Select and Rt. 1 delivery dates...but with those in the 2020 equation, I'm at a lost (well, I was at a lost before and now since I have zero clue how cars are produced - I am just simply looking at this from a PR/Marketing perspective - never cut into your most engaged consumers - in many cases, how much $$ they spend = engagement)...

There is another reason for bringing forward the Select and Cal Rt 1 cars that I have just thought off. Perhaps they haven't had the interest that they had hoped for in the car and they HAD to bring forward the Select and Cal Rt 1 to make up the numbers in the 1st production run.

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[abr]

There is another reason for bringing forward the Select and Cal Rt 1 cars that I have just thought off. Perhaps they haven't had the interest that they had hoped for in the car and they HAD to bring forward the Select and Cal Rt 1 to make up the numbers in the 1st production run.

They have plenty of Premium and Euro cars to produce if needed. they don't need to bring forward Select & CARt1 to fill their production lines for Run 1.

 

[portlandg]

They have plenty of Premium and Euro cars to produce if needed. they don't need to bring forward Select & CARt1 to fill their production lines for Run 1.

We don't know what the numbers are. In UK the are only about 40 dealers that can sell the MME. Now we were working on an average of about 40 cars per dealer (someone said that was how many their dealer had) but I heard from my dealer last week and he told me he had 12. If that is a good average then there is less than 600 coming here instead of estimate of 1600. Just saying.

 

[ChasingCoral]

It is a total guess - the fact that Ford moved up the Select and Rt. 1 deliveries in NA to late 2020 has me scratching my head at what that means for the delivery of Premiums...I ordered a Premium mainly because it would be here before the Rt. 1...so will a person who ordered a Rt. 1 now get it before I get my Premium??? Seems odd, and out of alignment...from a marketing standpoint, it makes no sense that Ford would sacrifice Premium consumers in that way.

We have discussed that FE folks had to convert their ressies to orders by July 31, but that it didn't really matter to the run schedule, since all FE would be run regardless at the same time...and Premium folks (and I guess all others) had to covert their ressies to orders by the end of the year (correct?) - so it is still a guess at how Ford will prioritize its build schedule - I cant fathom that it is completely off what order number we have - maybe if they didn't pull up the Select and Rt. 1 delivery dates...but with those in the 2020 equation, I'm at a lost (well, I was at a lost before and now since I have zero clue how cars are produced - I am just simply looking at this from a PR/Marketing perspective - never cut into your most engaged consumers - in many cases, how much $$ they spend = engagement)...

Yes, moving up the Select/CA Route 1 production seems like a head-scratcher to me, too. All I can figure is they want to go ahead and run some of these, especially since they are available options for FCTP. Just because they will start deliveries in late 2021 doesn't mean they plan to run full speed ahead with Select/CA Route 1 models.

Even if they decide to fulfill Select/CA Route 1 models in reservation order (among those converted to orders, of course), remember that our order conversion spreadsheet currently shows only 2.9% of orders are for Select and 1.9% are for CA Route 1. If those hold at ~5% of all orders, that would be 500 vehicles out of the 10,000 expected by year-end. That's roughly 2 days of production. You won't even notice that blip in the delivery schedule of Premiums. When they produce the FCTP and EU/UK units is a far more important question.

 

[abr]

Yes, moving up the Select/CA Route 1 production seems like a head-scratcher to me, too. All I can figure is they want to go ahead and run some of these, especially since they are available options for FCTP. Just because they will start deliveries in late 2021 doesn't mean they plan to run full speed ahead with Select/CA Route 1 models.

Even if they decide to fulfill Select/CA Route 1 models in reservation order (among those converted to orders, of course), remember that our order conversion spreadsheet currently shows only 2.9% of orders are for Select and 1.9% are for CA Route 1. If those hold at ~5% of all orders, that would be 500 vehicles out of the 10,000 expected by year-end. That's roughly 2 days of production. You won't even notice that blip in the delivery schedule of Premiums. When they produce the FCTP and EU/UK units is a far more important question.

I might notice if my Premium gets delayed by a few days or gets moved to Run 2.
Good point on FCTP, but I would think that dealers would almost exclusively order Premiums for FCTP - only way to upsell potential buyers is to show the features they might miss out on with Select / CARt1.

 

[GregM]

I might notice if my Premium gets delayed by a few days or gets moved to Run 2.
Good point on FCTP, but I would think that dealers would almost exclusively order Premiums for FCTP - only way to upsell potential buyers is to show the features they might miss out on with Select / CARt1.

Yes, moving up the Select/CA Route 1 production seems like a head-scratcher to me, too. All I can figure is they want to go ahead and run some of these, especially since they are available options for FCTP. Just because they will start deliveries in late 2021 doesn't mean they plan to run full speed ahead with Select/CA Route 1 models.

Even if they decide to fulfill Select/CA Route 1 models in reservation order (among those converted to orders, of course), remember that our order conversion spreadsheet currently shows only 2.9% of orders are for Select and 1.9% are for CA Route 1. If those hold at ~5% of all orders, that would be 500 vehicles out of the 10,000 expected by year-end. That's roughly 2 days of production. You won't even notice that blip in the delivery schedule of Premiums. When they produce the FCTP and EU/UK units is a far more important question.

If it is 500, or 1,000 - it is still at the sacrifice of Premiums being run...like @abr said, I would notice if that pushed be from a December deliver to January...

 

[JamieGeek]

A few thoughts:

• I don't think Ford has ever said "Premium" means first (like the First Editions) Premium is just a trim level and not a priority (just because they were scheduled early pre-pandemic doesn't mean they were like the First Edition--especially since they will continue to sell the Premium trim level for a long time)
• Perhaps they were just trying to do the Tesla model and deliver the most expensive ones (aside from the GT) first to maximize profit--something Ford really doesn't need to do since the bulk of their profit is called F-150
• As you mention that the # of select's & RT1's is such a small number, perhaps Ford just wants to "knock them out" and then switch to all Premiums

Ok yes my observations are biased since I did order a RT1 and do want it to arrive before the end of the year...

 

[ClaudeMach-E]

In Canada Select and Cal RT-1 where always advertise for the end of 2020 delivery

 

[dbsb3233]

There is another reason for bringing forward the Select and Cal Rt 1 cars that I have just thought off. Perhaps they haven't had the interest that they had hoped for in the car and they HAD to bring forward the Select and Cal Rt 1 to make up the numbers in the 1st production run.

That would potentially apply if these were existing inventory that they're having trouble moving. But it's not. Ford doesn't care whether they sell 98% Premiums and 2% others, or 60-40. They just want to sell all 50,000. They're happy producing whatever trim people order.

In fact if anything, they probably like that it's mostly Premiums (more expensive, and probably more profit).

 

[dbsb3233]

A few thoughts:

• I don't think Ford has ever said "Premium" means first (like the First Editions) Premium is just a trim level and not a priority (just because they were scheduled early pre-pandemic doesn't mean they were like the First Edition--especially since they will continue to sell the Premium trim level for a long time)
• Perhaps they were just trying to do the Tesla model and deliver the most expensive ones (aside from the GT) first to maximize profit--something Ford really doesn't need to do since the bulk of their profit is called F-150
• As you mention that the # of select's & RT1's is such a small number, perhaps Ford just wants to "knock them out" and then switch to all Premiums

Ok yes my observations are biased since I did order a RT1 and do want it to arrive before the end of the year...

Agreed. "Premium" doesn't mean higher priority (like "First Edition" implies), it simply means more features.

Whether they're interspersing Premiums, Rt1s, and Selects together (after the FEs), or going in order of (NA-bound) Premiums, then Rt1s, then Selects is anybody's guess. It could be possible that they could crank out all the pre-reserved NA-bound Premiums between early Nov (after the FEs) and early Dec, then start on the Rt1 and Select in mid Dec. Just depends on how many pre-reserved NA-bound Premiums actually convert to orders by whatever their 1st run queue cut-off date is.

My guess though is that they're just interspersing them together. In fact, I've wondered if some features take longer to accomplish on the assembly line, so maybe they purposely alternate those on the line to give that worker twice the time to complete it? (Probably not - just thinking out loud)

 

[ChasingCoral]

New info from @trutolife27's source holds good news and bad news.
Good news: Job 1 apparently now 28 September (not confirmed independently yet)
Bad news: Assembly line is only running 4 days/week at start. Not sure if that will change as my source indicates workers share time on line and in stamping. That means only about 1,000 units per week but Run 1 now a month longer.

That updates the line capacity to:

The Cuautitlan plant will have to increase output to finish their 50,000 units by the end of July, even if Runs 2 & 3 are up to 5 days per week of line operation.

This could move up deliveries of First Editions earlier in November and increases Run 1's Premium output by 1,000 units. We can now assume EU/UK runs will be in the later part of Run 1, as we have heard delivery is end of February.

 

[Johnny]

@ChasingCoral and @trutolife27 - I think everyone on this forum echos me in saying THANK YOU for working your sources in Mexico and putting together estimates. I know I'm checking regularly and love seeing when updates come across!

 

[OdellBretthamJr]

I have an order for a Premium with a res # near 6000. This is good news as I hope to have my car around my December birthday

 

[OdellBretthamJr]

@ChasingCoral and @trutolife27 - I think everyone on this forum echos me in saying THANK YOU for working your sources in Mexico and putting together estimates. I know I'm checking regularly and love seeing when updates come across!

Ford needs to have them on payroll for the work they’ve done.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Ford needs to have them on payroll for the work they’ve done.

Expedited delivery of my Mach E and a bit of swag will do!

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