Production runs & line output guesstimates

[Roentgen]

I echo your concerns. Even though I waited all this time for delivery (hopefully it'll be in December), if the test drive doesn't go well, or the car doesn't feel right, I'll have no issues with walking away. Yes, I'll be out the $500 deposit, but oh well. I still need to test drive the Model Y...just in case.

I was told by dealer that 500 was refundable if i did not approve on test drive...

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[SnBGC]

...

The bigger questions come in after 8/20. Options include:
1) All orders in hand 8/20 are in the first "hopper-full" and emptied in order of reservation until the hopper is empty, scheduling all of those on hand into runs. They then they sweep in the next batch of reservations once the first hopper-full is empty. This puts higher priority on order date.
2) All orders in hand 8/20 are in the first "hopper-full" and emptied in order of reservation until the hopper is empty or the first run is fully scheduled. They then they sweep in the next batch of reservations in and re-sort by reservation date. This puts higher priority on order date.
3) There are no hoppers. All orders in hand 8/20 scheduled in order of reservation. The system continually takes in any new orders submitted and res-sorts and orders that have not already been scheduled. Once an order is scheduled it is pretty well locked-in; to do otherwise would cause system in the JIT parts logistics. This puts the highest priority on order date.
....

If I were to venture a guess....scenario #2 would seem most reasonable and equitable but might take more effort to manage than Ford wishes to spend. Scenario #3 would take the least amount of time to manage but could be a curse once the EU and GT order window opens. So, I go back to #2 as a likely solution since it accounts for other markets when those windows open.
All just a guess though......??

Maybe this has been discussed already.....but if I am not mistaken, the ONLY FE reservations that are converted to orders at this point are from North America. Correct?

...

I think there's an extremely high likelihood that there are far more confirmed orders at this point than slots available in run 1. ....

I am kinda leaning the other way on this. While there is a lot of interested in the MME here in the U.S., that doesn't necessarily mean the buyers are opening up their wallets just yet. Drivers in Europe are far more receptive to EVs than we are here in the states. From a manufacturing profit standpoint.....any company that has orders in hand at the start of Q3 would be very motivated to fill as many orders as possible before Q4 ends. Speed to market is a real thing and it would be foolish to let a customer stand in a long line with a wad of cash in their hand. All it takes is another line to open up and that customer will jump ship. Supply and demand in the most basic sense.

The other thing here that I don't think anyone is talking about are the ZEV credits that Ford can gain from producing as many EVs as they can sell. Those credits are valuable. Tesla earned almost half a billion dollars selling their credits so far this year so that is a commodity that either Ford can sell or no longer needs to purchase. I am nearly certain this was part of the equation when Ford stated that the MME will be profitable from job #1 on.

Long story short.....if Ford does indeed have a bunch of confirmed orders then they will likely do whatever they can to get them into the buyers hands as quickly as possible. The new car market has a limited supply of buyers right now so squander at your own risk.....

My $0.02....

To get to the point the dealers suppose to be working hard and turn reservations into deposits and orders by July 31st. We will find out the true number in the next weeks I'm sure of that. No one expected the demand for the mache to be this much. One shift already turning into two shifts, if suppliers can keep up then 2 shifts can turn into adding a C crew also. Once the broadcast sheets start coming in from Dearborn on where the Mache's are going and what specs are. Then will have some more feedback. .......I have seen two mache and road in one. Also road in the model y, model3, and the Mache craftmanship is on a whole nother level.

Exactly! I am super curious what information we can gather when the first production schedule is released or leaked. I myself am waiting to see if Ford will give me ANY information on my order later this month. I am a late reserver and early converter. If Ford tells me my car is scheduled then I will stop looking at other choices. I too have seen the Mach E in person and rode in the Model S, 3 and Y. The workmanship (and work-lady-ship) in the Mach E is vastly superior in my opinion. If it was close....then I would have a Model Y in my driveway right now. I also like the Polestar 2 very much and I can have it next month if I wish but I really want an American EV. No particular reason....just a preference if possible.

It's no secret that Ford used Tesla as a benchmark and they are wise to do so. Start there, and then try and improve. Let's see if they hit their target. I am pretty sure that Ford has noticed the success of the Model Y. There are a bunch of Model 3 owners that are switching to the Y so that shows the market is there for a crossover SUV EV.

I am in that same boat as those Model 3 owners. I have a smaller EV that suits me well but I would like to step up to something larger like a compact SUV. I drove the Y and decided it's not for me. I drove the I Pace and love it to death but the price is very hard for me to accept. The Mach E appears to be EXACTLY what I am looking for .....or at least pretty darn close. Expectations are high for sure so I hope that Ford can find a way to get it in my driveway before another valid choice is available.

 

[DaveRuns]

I was told by dealer that 500 was refundable if i did not approve on test drive...

My dealer said it was non-refundable...however, I'm sure if I had a problem with the test drive, we could work something out.

 

[ChasingCoral]

My dealer said it was non-refundable...however, I'm sure if I had a problem with the test drive, we could work something out.

Whether the deposit is refundable is a decision by the dealership. Mine has told me deposits are fully refundable and I have that in writing (email).

 

[DaveRuns]

If I were to venture a guess....scenario #2 would seem most reasonable and equitable but might take more effort to manage than Ford wishes to spend. Scenario #3 would take the least amount of time to manage but could be a curse once the EU and GT order window opens. So, I go back to #2 as a likely solution since it accounts for other markets when those windows open.
All just a guess though......??

Maybe this has been discussed already.....but if I am not mistaken, the ONLY FE reservations that are converted to orders at this point are from North America. Correct?



I am kinda leaning the other way on this. While there is a lot of interested in the MME here in the U.S., that doesn't necessarily mean the buyers are opening up their wallets just yet. Drivers in Europe are far more receptive to EVs than we are here in the states. From a manufacturing profit standpoint.....any company that has orders in hand at the start of Q3 would be very motivated to fill as many orders as possible before Q4 ends. Speed to market is a real thing and it would be foolish to let a customer stand in a long line with a wad of cash in their hand. All it takes is another line to open up and that customer will jump ship. Supply and demand in the most basic sense.

The other thing here that I don't think anyone is talking about are the ZEV credits that Ford can gain from producing as many EVs as they can sell. Those credits are valuable. Tesla earned almost half a billion dollars selling their credits so far this year so that is a commodity that either Ford can sell or no longer needs to purchase. I am nearly certain this was part of the equation when Ford stated that the MME will be profitable from job #1 on.

Long story short.....if Ford does indeed have a bunch of confirmed orders then they will likely do whatever they can to get them into the buyers hands as quickly as possible. The new car market has a limited supply of buyers right now so squander at your own risk.....

My $0.02....



Exactly! I am super curious what information we can gather when the first production schedule is released or leaked. I myself am waiting to see if Ford will give me ANY information on my order later this month. I am a late reserver and early converter. If Ford tells me my car is scheduled then I will stop looking at other choices. I too have seen the Mach E in person and rode in the Model S, 3 and Y. The workmanship (and work-lady-ship) in the Mach E is vastly superior in my opinion. If it was close....then I would have a Model Y in my driveway right now. I also like the Polestar 2 very much and I can have it next month if I wish but I really want an American EV. No particular reason....just a preference if possible.

It's no secret that Ford used Tesla as a benchmark and they are wise to do so. Start there, and then try and improve. Let's see if they hit their target. I am pretty sure that Ford has noticed the success of the Model Y. There are a bunch of Model 3 owners that are switching to the Y so that shows the market is there for a crossover SUV EV.

I am in that same boat as those Model 3 owners. I have a smaller EV that suits me well but I would like to step up to something larger like a compact SUV. I drove the Y and decided it's not for me. I drove the I Pace and love it to death but the price is very hard for me to accept. The Mach E appears to be EXACTLY what I am looking for .....or at least pretty darn close. Expectations are high for sure so I hope that Ford can find a way to get it in my driveway before another valid choice is available.

Just curious....what were your driving and overall impressions of the Model Y when you drove it? I don't know why, but I keep going back and forth between the 2. I'm just trying to suck up all the info I can right now, but I'm 90% sure I'm sticking with the MME.

 

[ChasingCoral]

If I were to venture a guess....scenario #2 would seem most reasonable and equitable but might take more effort to manage than Ford wishes to spend. Scenario #3 would take the least amount of time to manage but could be a curse once the EU and GT order window opens. So, I go back to #2 as a likely solution since it accounts for other markets when those windows open.
All just a guess though......??

I think scenario 3 would be a real challenge for ordering parts. I agree #2 is the most likely.

Maybe this has been discussed already.....but if I am not mistaken, the ONLY FE reservations that are converted to orders at this point are from North America. Correct?

Correct, although Dutch leases apparently converted, too.

Long story short.....if Ford does indeed have a bunch of confirmed orders then they will likely do whatever they can to get them into the buyers hands as quickly as possible. The new car market has a limited supply of buyers right now so squander at your own risk.....

Not sure about the new car market. While lots of potential buyers have been knocked out of the market through job loss or uncertainty, surveys are showing that those who are likely to have to start going back into the office are very likely to be buying or leasing a new car, especially in markets where lots of those folks were using mass transit in the past. We are seeing a mass exodus of workers from mass transit to cars due to concern over catching COVID-19.

 

[dbsb3233]

Not sure about the new car market. While lots of potential buyers have been knocked out of the market through job loss or uncertainty, surveys are showing that those who are likely to have to start going back into the office are very likely to be buying or leasing a new car, especially in markets where lots of those folks were using mass transit in the past. We are seeing a mass exodus of workers from mass transit to cars due to concern over catching COVID-19.

Yep. Amazingly, the S&P500 is a hair away from setting a new high again, recovering all of the COVID/shutdown losses. We're not all past it yet, of course, but most of the people that had the money to buy a $60,000 car in January are probably back again.

And take a look at some NYC webcams. This one is Times Square. Looks more like Dodge City activity than New York City...

https://www.earthcam.com/cams/newyork/timessquare/?cam=tsrobo1

 

[SnBGC]

What are Dutch Leases?

 

[ChasingCoral]

What are Dutch Leases?

People in the Netherlands who lease their vehicles.

 

[SnBGC]

People in the Netherlands who lease their vehicles.

I guess I am a bit confused.....
Why make an exception for people that want to lease? And why just that one country?

 

[ChasingCoral]

I guess I am a bit confused.....
Why make an exception for people that want to lease? And why just that one country?

Remember that while production is all in one place, sales are location dependent. US had reservations via the website, Canada did not. North American First Editions reservations "sold out" in December but some were still allowed during January promotional events in EU/UK.

As for Dutch leases, go read the threads "Dutch People That Ordered a Mach-E":
https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/dutch-people-that-ordered-a-mach-e.539/
and
"Insufficient compensation for Dutch Lease Car drivers, missing 2020 delivery"
https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...lease-car-drivers-missing-2020-delivery.1231/
Apparently, Ford-NL or the leasing companies required all of their reservation holders to convert to orders back before US orders even opened. There's even more to that story as shortly after they all converted, Ford announced the change in delivery schedules due to COVID-19 and deliveries planned for late 2020 became 2021 deliveries. This has important tax consequences to them. As I recall Dutch buyers were not forced to commit but were offered discounts to help offset the tax impacts of moving delivery to 2021.

 

[SnBGC]

Interesting. I had

Remember that while production is all in one place, sales are location dependent. US had reservations via the website, Canada did not. North American First Editions reservations "sold out" in December but some were still allowed during January promotional events in EU/UK.

As for Dutch leases, go read the threads "Dutch People That Ordered a Mach-E":
https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/dutch-people-that-ordered-a-mach-e.539/
and
"Insufficient compensation for Dutch Lease Car drivers, missing 2020 delivery"
https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...lease-car-drivers-missing-2020-delivery.1231/
Apparently, Ford-NL or the leasing companies required all of their reservation holders to convert to orders back before US orders even opened. There's even more to that story as shortly after they all converted, Ford announced the change in delivery schedules due to COVID-19 and deliveries planned for late 2020 became 2021 deliveries. This has important tax consequences to them. As I recall Dutch buyers were not forced to commit but were offered discounts to help offset the tax impacts of moving delivery to 2021.

Interesting. I had no idea any of that was happening. I just assumed we all were using the same reservation system online.

 

[dbsb3233]

Interesting. I had

Interesting. I had no idea any of that was happening. I just assumed we all were using the same reservation system online.

If I remember right, Ford NL opened their order book (from reservations) way early -- a few weeks before Ford announced the COVID-caused reshuffling of the schedule that shifted the first wave of deliveries to North America, and bumped Europe back a few months into 2021. Many NL customers that had ordered in that window were quite unhappy because there was some huge tax break that ends YearEnd-2020 that many were counting on.

 

[ChasingCoral]

OK, time for version 5!

The latest news today from Ford employees, including in Cuautitlan, confirmed some new key dates and other information:

• Job 1 is now September 28
• Mass production 1 will be FCTP and company cars
• Mass production 2 will begin about a month later and will be customer units and dealer stock
• All First Editions to be built by last week of October, if possible
• Time table from the day your vin is built to arrival at dealer 3-4 weeks
• OK to buy (date customer units expected at dealers in US) is now November 23
• Assembly line rate at full production 1,300 per week and Dearborn wants them to hit it!
• Important corollary: Dearborn wants nothing shipped with anything to fix. Farley has a no excuse policy.
• Final date for conversion of First Edition reservations has slipped again to 8/14
• As far as we know, Mach E production scheduling still begins August 20
• We've heard Dutch delivery dates around the end of February

I've separated Run 1 into Job #1, FEs, and the rest of MP 2.

Job #1:
At least 2,000 cars will be produced. This includes all of the FCTP units as well as company orders. Company orders include units for final testing as well as executive orders. We know that there will be at least 2,000 units for FCTP. Let's assume 500 more. Presumably EU/UK needs dealer units, so let's still figure 500 there. Under full production of 1,300 per week that's over 2 weeks. However, we should assume slow production, so maybe 3 weeks?

First Editions:
@trutolife27's intel says "The goal is to (try) to have all the first edition built by last week of October."
That's perhaps 3,000 cars. I realize not all reservations will be converted to FE orders but I think conversion will be high. We also don't have confirmation it's 3,000. If we expect 1,000 per week (close to full production), that's 3 weeks. There are only 5 weeks between September 28 and October 30, or 6,500 cars at full production. So maybe they can get out all of Job #1 and the FEs in 5 weeks. Maybe. I'm going to assume Job #1 + First Editions will take 6 weeks. That gets all of the North American First Editions out by the last week of October, which may be what they meant.

Mass Production 2:
Pulling the above two out, this leaves 7 weeks at full production. That's up to 9,100 units. The real question is still how many units are destined for EU/UK. A full Roll-on/Roll-off ship takes about 8,000 vehicles. That would be the almost of the remainder and gets very few Premiums or other non-FE customer units to North America. I doubt that is their plan. I'll again assume 1/2 to NA and 1/2 to EU/UK. I'll also assume full production throughput of vehicles.

Line capacity is now over the needed 50,000 if we assume full production to the end.

Percentages:
We have a few more orders, but still only about 1% of possible orders out there. I don't know if that makes for a valid sample but it's getting close. Selects are up but otherwise no real change and no reason to change assumptions.

v5 Guesstimate
This brings us to the important table:

For North America, we'll assume 4 weeks delivery time (close locations earlier), meaning that by

• November 20 dealers should have their demos
• November 27 First Editions should be delivered
• December 18 should be delivery of
  • 4,000 Premiums
  • 200 Selects and
  • 400 CA Route 1s

This is a little above the high end of the estimate from @trutolife27's contact :

My guess is 3000 to 5,000 shipped and on the lot and sold by end of December.

So reality may be lower if production doesn't meet my assumptions.

Producing the EU/UK models other than First Editions would occur at the end, giving 10 weeks to deliver them to their destinations.

What US Reservation Numbers get cars in 2020?
Now I'll go out on a limb I haven't ventured onto before: reservation numbers. We know that there were reservation numbers up into the 80,000s just before orders opened. 50,000 are being produced and orders are still being taken. Let's assume 50% of potential reservation numbers result in orders. This includes reservation numbers not assigned and reservations not converted.

60% of cars go to EU/UK, 40% to NA. That means, for example, that if 10,000 cars are produced, 4,000 US customers get cars. That means 4,000 cars means 10,000 reservation numbers.

Assuming 30% GTs in the US, the 4,000 is actually 5,200 so that brings us to 11,200 reservation numbers. But if only 50% of potential reservation numbers result in orders, that will be doubled to 22,400. Finally, reservation numbers started at 4,000. This means that US reservations up to around 25,000 might be delivered in 2020. We'll consider the First Editions (1000), Selects (200), and CA Route 1s (400) to be noise in this calculation, considering the huge assumptions. Converting that into the more meaningful reservation timestamps, that probably means any reservation made in November has a good chance of being delivered in 2020.

Now don't shoot me if we don't reach res# 20,000! There are lots of assumptions that probably don't hold. Eager people make early reservations, so they probably convert at a higher rate. if @trutolife27's contact is right with the 3,000-5,000 estimate and slow production brings us in at the low end of that scale, 2,000 Premiums becomes 2,600, becomes 5,600, becomes 11,200, becomes about 15,000, so reservations through ~ November 19.

I'm sure I have some math errors and you can definitely find holes in my assumptions. Thoughts?

 

[janitorjim]

Whether the deposit is refundable is a decision by the dealership. Mine has told me deposits are fully refundable and I have that in writing (email).

I didn't have to place a deposit. Now that might mean I don't actually get a car but I do have a dealer order number

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