Production runs & line output guesstimates

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ChasingCoral

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I would like to throw in a total optimistic guess in the ring here and say lets go for Option (1). Here's why:

On or around October 28, 2020, Ford announces earnings for the quarter ended September 30, 2020. This is key for them, and they often do include key announcements on earnings release day.

How great would it be for them to announce that production is ahead of "schedule" (at least the publicly released schedule), they've reached full production capacity, OKTB was moved up and they were able to deliver their first First Edition Mustang Mach-E!
That would be amazing. A late October OKTB coupled with delivery estimates of 2-3 from some dealer statements would mean vehicle deliveries in mid-November. I have no reason to believe it will happen but love the sound of it!
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That would be amazing. A late October OKTB coupled with delivery estimates of 2-3 from some dealer statements would mean vehicle deliveries in mid-November. I have no reason to believe it will happen but love the sound of it!
Ditto - I love the sound of it, but am trying to keep my expectations low.

So excited for this car that I dreamt about it the other night - including my father hitting one of my side mirrors while I was showing it off to him...
 

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Gotta say thanks to the insiders giving us updates on production. When I placed the reservation I was hoping to not get one of the first 5000 or so vehicles (one of the reasons I opted for premium instead of first edition.) Now I'm hoping to get one ASAP!
 
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I haven't run an update for a while, mainly because there hasn't been enough new information to do so. However, I think it's worth taking another look and releasing v.7.

We've also still multiple sources (and especially @trutolife27) confirm both 26 October start for FEs and 23 November OKTB schedule. Of course, his source in Cuautitlan also said they are running 4 days behind schedule. If there's a break scheduled between FCTP and FE production, they might get back on schedule. He also confirmed Ford will not ship FCTP vehicles before OKTB.

This gives us two options:
  1. Ford ships FCTP and FEs at OKTB date. If we assume the dealers are right about a 2-3 week delivery time, FCTP vehicles and arrive mid-December with FEs arriving right behind them (same time for some dealers). All FCTP and FEs arrive at dealers in December.
  2. Ford moves up OKTB (we have no information suggesting this will happen but continue to hope ?
Other changes:
  • No FCTP cars being made for EU/UK until later. Besides, Ford-Europe is allowing test drives during their ongoing event, so let's assume no FCTP for there now.
  • I tossed in 10 FEs in the FCTP as part of the executive orders. We know a Rapid Red has already been built for someone (last name might be Ford).
  • We still don't know exactly how many FEs are being built. We've heard 3,000 but we don't know if that's 3,000 for NA or global.
    • Currently the NA orders are 15% FE. Assuming the initial 20,000 NA cars, that's 3,000 -- hmmm.
    • We also don't have any reason to believe the 60/40 EU/US split applies to FEs. Let's just go with 3,000 NA FEs produced now, and 1,500 for EU/UK by the end of the year.
  • Demand is high. I'm going to shift my assumption of slower production of FEs and go to a 1,000 car per week rate during FE production (probably optimistic) and then the full 1,300 once they shift to Premiums, etc.
  • All currently reserved CA Route 1s will be made up front along with the first batch of Premiums. They only account for 3% of orders so far, so it's best to do them all at once.
  • Promises of February deliveries of some EU/UK cars still means some of those will be produced in 2020. However, if Ford shifts those delivery dates into March, it means they will be producing more NA cars in 2020. Based on the latest emails to UK buyers, I'll go out on a limb and say they are only going to make a week's worth of EU/UK cars in 2020 to test the line. Orders aren't being confirmed until the end of November, that really means scheduling parts will be planning for January's production. Production in December will be all the FEs and a limited number of the others.
So, the Line Capacity is adjusted to:
Ford Mustang Mach-E Production runs & line output guesstimates 1602553473917


The percentages (based on https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/submitted-orders-tracking-list-enter-yours.924/ through today) are:
Ford Mustang Mach-E Production runs & line output guesstimates 1602553531591


And Production Runs are:
Ford Mustang Mach-E Production runs & line output guesstimates 1602554639621


Don't pay close attention to numbers in 2021. I haven't made any changes in there other than the automatic ones that kick in by moving around production in 2020, and the assumption that Ford decides to finish all non-GT NA pre-orders by April.

Separate post coming next: Delivery and reservation number guesses.

1602553553979.png


1602554288075.png
 
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OK, based on v7 Guesstimates (https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-43919) here are my guesstimates on delivery and reservation/order numbers reached.

I'm going with the optimistic 2-3 weeks for delivery that has come from multiple dealers. This is one of the few things I trust them on. They've ordered lots of cars. Yes, most have come from Michigan but Ford's been building cars in Mexico for a while now and that shouldn't add a whole lot more time.

I'll be realistic and assume Ford sticks with the 23 November OKTB date. What will be stacked up in the lot on 23 November?
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
3,000 First Editions
1,000 + Premiums with maybe a few CA Route 1s and Selects thrown in for line spacing.
Over 6,000 cars.

Let's go with @dbsb3233's estimate of 500 cars per day loading time. That means it will take 12 days to get those all out, possibly 16 to 18 to be completely caught up as production will continue during that time. I'll assume train loading is a 7-day per week operation.

All FCTPs are moving on trains by 27 November
All FEs are moving on trains by 3 December
FCTPs arrive at dealers from 11-18 December
FEs arrive at dealers from 17-24 December
Premiums and scattered others arrive at dealers starting 18 December.

By the end of the year, I'm guessing North American dealers will have taken delivery of
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
3,000 First Editions
5,200 + Premiums and other trims.
Over 10,000 cars.

Reading back over earlier posts and information on EU/UK orders, I don't think they started up as fast as NA orders. Rather than assuming the 60/40 split of planned sales (EU/UK vs NA), let's go with a 50/50 split of early reservations. It may even go 40/60 in the first couple of weeks. We should still assume 35% of the NA orders in the early period are GTs as that's what Ford reported to the press.

Since these are rough assumptions, I'll start with rough numbers:
Of course, reservations began with 4,000.
8,000 Mach Es becomes 16,000 reservation numbers accounting for the half reserved in the EU/UK. The 8,000 are also 35% GTs that won't be made yet, so that's only 5,200 cars to be made.
So, 4,000 + 8,000 + 12,000 = 24,000

I estimate that in 2020, the total number of customer Mach Es to reach dealers may exceed reservation number 24,000 or any order based on a November reservation.
 


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The 500 MMEs on the 30 train cars the plant tracks have loading space for was an early assumption that they'd use tri-level autoracks, and eyeballing the length of the Fiestas on the lot in the satellite photo vs the train car (looked like 6 per row would fit). But looking at specs now, both of those estimates look generous. Based on the capacity of CSX autoracks, it appears the MME is just barely too tall for a tri-level. And a bit too long to fit 6 per row. If that's correct, looks like only 10 per railcar, thus 300 per load.

https://www.csx.com/index.cfm/customers/resources/equipment/railroad-equipment/

But I really have no idea if they can do more than one 30-railcar load per day. That was just a wild guess assumption of one load per day. For all I know they could have a 2nd set of 30 railcars ready to move in after the first move out. But if I were forced to give a "best guess", I'd say 300 per day now.
 

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OK, based on v7 Guesstimates (https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-43919) here are my guesstimates on delivery and reservation/order numbers reached.

I'm going with the optimistic 2-3 weeks for delivery that has come from multiple dealers. This is one of the few things I trust them on. They've ordered lots of cars. Yes, most have come from Michigan but Ford's been building cars in Mexico for a while now and that shouldn't add a whole lot more time.

I'll be realistic and assume Ford sticks with the 23 November OKTB date. What will be stacked up in the lot on 23 November?
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
3,000 First Editions
1,000 + Premiums with maybe a few CA Route 1s and Selects thrown in for line spacing.
Over 6,000 cars.

Let's go with @dbsb3233's estimate of 500 cars per day loading time. That means it will take 12 days to get those all out, possibly 16 to 18 to be completely caught up as production will continue during that time. I'll assume train loading is a 7-day per week operation.

All FCTPs are moving on trains by 27 November
All FEs are moving on trains by 3 December
FCTPs arrive at dealers from 11-18 December
FEs arrive at dealers from 17-24 December
Premiums and scattered others arrive at dealers starting 18 December.

By the end of the year, I'm guessing North American dealers will have taken delivery of
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
3,000 First Editions
5,200 + Premiums and other trims.
Over 10,000 cars.

Reading back over earlier posts and information on EU/UK orders, I don't think they started up as fast as NA orders. Rather than assuming the 60/40 split of planned sales (EU/UK vs NA), let's go with a 50/50 split of early reservations. It may even go 40/60 in the first couple of weeks. We should still assume 35% of the NA orders in the early period are GTs as that's what Ford reported to the press.

Since these are rough assumptions, I'll start with rough numbers:
Of course, reservations began with 4,000.
8,000 Mach Es becomes 16,000 reservation numbers accounting for the half reserved in the EU/UK. The 8,000 are also 35% GTs that won't be made yet, so that's only 5,200 cars to be made.
So, 4,000 + 8,000 + 12,000 = 24,000

I estimate that in 2020, the total number of customer Mach Es to reach dealers may exceed reservation number 24,000 or any order based on a November reservation.
Just also note that there's been an industry wide railcar shortage, so there's no guarantee the railroads can find enough capacity for Ford to empty the lot significantly faster than normal production, so it may take a while to get the cars out.

And while I admire the enthusiasm that none of the cars need to stay in Mexico for rework after OKTB is achieved, I'm not sure I share that enthusiasm. OKTB just means that the cars built at that point are OK to Buy, it doesn't mean that all the cars built *up to* that date are OK to Buy.

I'd be very surprised if more than a few hundred or so Mach-Es get delivered by dealers in December. I suspect the floodgates won't open until mid-January to February.
 

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And while I admire the enthusiasm that none of the cars need to stay in Mexico for rework after OKTB is achieved, I'm not sure I share that enthusiasm. OKTB just means that the cars built at that point are OK to Buy, it doesn't mean that all the cars built *up to* that date are OK to Buy.
Yes the rail situation is always uncertain. The other issue is that the successful execution of the production plan is well defined whereas all the potential failure points -- and there are many --are diffuse and therefore underweighted or ignored.
 

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@ChasingCoral As for what I've heard a maximum of 200 FE's will be made for NL market.
The first batch of 2000 (including 200FE's) for the NL market is planned to be delivered in february/march, between week 6 and week 10.

Did my own order-table on a dutch Tech website, not much orders though.
https://gathering.tweakers.net/forum/list_messages/1974810
 

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I haven't run an update for a while, mainly because there hasn't been enough new information to do so. However, I think it's worth taking another look and releasing v.7.

We've also still multiple sources (and especially @trutolife27) confirm both 26 October start for FEs and 23 November OKTB schedule. Of course, his source in Cuautitlan also said they are running 4 days behind schedule. If there's a break scheduled between FCTP and FE production, they might get back on schedule. He also confirmed Ford will not ship FCTP vehicles before OKTB.

This gives us two options:
  1. Ford ships FCTP and FEs at OKTB date. If we assume the dealers are right about a 2-3 week delivery time, FCTP vehicles and arrive mid-December with FEs arriving right behind them (same time for some dealers). All FCTP and FEs arrive at dealers in December.
  2. Ford moves up OKTB (we have no information suggesting this will happen but continue to hope ?
Other changes:
  • No FCTP cars being made for EU/UK until later. Besides, Ford-Europe is allowing test drives during their ongoing event, so let's assume no FCTP for there now.
  • I tossed in 10 FEs in the FCTP as part of the executive orders. We know a Rapid Red has already been built for someone (last name might be Ford).
  • We still don't know exactly how many FEs are being built. We've heard 3,000 but we don't know if that's 3,000 for NA or global.
    • Currently the NA orders are 15% FE. Assuming the initial 20,000 NA cars, that's 3,000 -- hmmm.
    • We also don't have any reason to believe the 60/40 EU/US split applies to FEs. Let's just go with 3,000 NA FEs produced now, and 1,500 for EU/UK by the end of the year.
  • Demand is high. I'm going to shift my assumption of slower production of FEs and go to a 1,000 car per week rate during FE production (probably optimistic) and then the full 1,300 once they shift to Premiums, etc.
  • All currently reserved CA Route 1s will be made up front along with the first batch of Premiums. They only account for 3% of orders so far, so it's best to do them all at once.
  • Promises of February deliveries of some EU/UK cars still means some of those will be produced in 2020. However, if Ford shifts those delivery dates into March, it means they will be producing more NA cars in 2020. Based on the latest emails to UK buyers, I'll go out on a limb and say they are only going to make a week's worth of EU/UK cars in 2020 to test the line. Orders aren't being confirmed until the end of November, that really means scheduling parts will be planning for January's production. Production in December will be all the FEs and a limited number of the others.
So, the Line Capacity is adjusted to:
Ford Mustang Mach-E Production runs & line output guesstimates 1602554288075


The percentages (based on https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/submitted-orders-tracking-list-enter-yours.924/ through today) are:
Ford Mustang Mach-E Production runs & line output guesstimates 1602554288075


And Production Runs are:
Ford Mustang Mach-E Production runs & line output guesstimates 1602554288075


Don't pay close attention to numbers in 2021. I haven't made any changes in there other than the automatic ones that kick in by moving around production in 2020, and the assumption that Ford decides to finish all non-GT NA pre-orders by April.

Separate post coming next: Delivery and reservation number guesses.

Ford Mustang Mach-E Production runs & line output guesstimates 1602554288075


Ford Mustang Mach-E Production runs & line output guesstimates 1602554288075
Hi Mark, I follow your analysis and info and thanks for making this Forum great. If you could give me your best estimate re my order Premium AWD ER, Order No. 10466203, ordered 10/27/20. I know it is far into the future, since I ordered it late (actually I test drove a Tesla Y Performance earlier that day, did not like it). Dealer very kind, said I was 13th on their "confirmed" order list, and all on the list are Premiums. Any chance I will see this car mid-year 2021, or before, or it is likely to roll to a 2022? Your best guess is much appreciated! Tom
 
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Hi Mark, I follow your analysis and info and thanks for making this Forum great. If you could give me your best estimate re my order Premium AWD ER, Order No. 10466203, ordered 10/27/20. I know it is far into the future, since I ordered it late (actually I test drove a Tesla Y Performance earlier that day, did not like it). Dealer very kind, said I was 13th on their "confirmed" order list, and all on the list are Premiums. Any chance I will see this car mid-year 2021, or before, or it is likely to roll to a 2022? Your best guess is much appreciated! Tom
You're asking a tough question as we know more about the orders that had early reservations than we do about the late orders. The best we can do is a ballpark estimate on these. I'd guess no sooner than April and probably by Summer 2021. I'm betting they will get most of those out before the GTs. At this point Ford has said nothing about rolling any orders from 2021 to 2022 models. I recommend you read @trutolife27's messages, including the recent t one where he talked about maybe having 12,000 more cars that can be ordered?
 

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So it sounds like it would realistically be a xmas miracle if anyone (especially on the east coast) has a FE before the end of December. And that is if everything goes perfect... Still hope, but wow that schedule is tight. My past experience with Ford shipping new models out of Mexico, is that there are usually some sort of delays..
 
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So it sounds like it would realistically be a xmas miracle if anyone (especially on the east coast) has a FE before the end of December. And that is if everything goes perfect... Still hope, but wow that schedule is tight. My past experience with Ford shipping new models out of Mexico, is that there are usually some sort of delays..
I wouldn't go that far. I think all FEs delivered in December is rather likely -- unless something goes seriously wrong.
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