Production runs & line output guesstimates

[RonTCat]

So, my dealer just called me. The first of his demo units just arrived today and he said I can come see it on Saturday or Sunday. No test drives allowed though.

Photos to come shortly....

He also said he has a Bronco as well. My guess is the Mach E may not be a FCTP car but one of the pre-production units that are out there already. If it was an FCTP car, then I should be allowed to drive it.....I think.
I will try and get more info shortly....

Check if has a Michigan license plate...

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[JellyBelly]

So, my dealer just called me. The first of his demo units just arrived today and he said I can come see it on Saturday or Sunday. No test drives allowed though.

Photos to come shortly....

He also said he has a Bronco as well. My guess is the Mach E may not be a FCTP car but one of the pre-production units that are out there already. If it was an FCTP car, then I should be allowed to drive it.....I think.
I will try and get more info shortly....

wow thats a surprise

 

[SnBGC]

Check if has a Michigan license plate...

Good guess!

 

[Orangefirefish]

Any concerns with delays due to the whole LG Chem battery issues that affected the Kona and now Bolt?

 

[Jolteon]

Good guess!

Heh... is that the "Bronco" he has too? The Bronco Sport? That seems like a classic dealer bait and switch lol

 

[SnBGC]

Heh... is that the "Bronco" he has too? The Bronco Sport? That seems like a classic dealer bait and switch lol

My son noticed that too. He is going to head to the dealership to see the Bronco because that is what he is really interested in getting. I think Ford is the most exciting vehicle manufacturer on the planet right now!

 

[Jolteon]

My son noticed that too. He is going to head to the dealership to see the Bronco because that is what he is really interested in getting. I think Ford is the most exciting vehicle manufacturer on the planet right now!

The Bronco Sport?

Calling a Bronco Sport a Bronco is like calling a Mach-E just a "Mustang."

 

[SnBGC]

The Bronco Sport?

Calling a Bronco Sport a Bronco is like calling a Mach-E just a "Mustang."

I stand corrected.
Thank you for showing me the errors in my ways. Now I can talk to my son about the Bronco Sport and he will think I am cool. When in reality I have you guys to watch my back.

 

[Jolteon]

I stand corrected.
Thank you for showing me the errors in my ways. Now I can talk to my son about the Bronco Sport and he will think I am cool. When in reality I have you guys to watch my back.

I mean I like both the Broncos just like I like both the Mustangs... but the Bronco Sport is the one that dealers will have lots full of soon and the "just Bronco" Bronco is the one with the waiting list out to 2022 already

 

[ChasingCoral]

Well, fellow anxious US Mach E buyers, we have good news and bad news for v.8.
Good news: They haven't used trains at the Cuautitlan plant in 15 years, and word has it they won't for Mach Es either. That means lots of trucks. If they are as nimble with their trucks as the ones that came out of Cuatitlan headed to the Mach E Tour and related stops, they can be at US* dealers within a week. They are also using trucks to send early units to ships bound for Europe right now**.

Bad news: Production is currently slower than I was guessing (these aren't called guesstimates for nothing!). @trutolife27 had warned early production rates starting at 100+ per week. What I hadn't realized is they have only ramped up to about 200-300/week now (per my contact).

Fortunately, things aren't as slow as I feared when I saw a parking lot with 287 cars. That wasn't the total so far, just the shipping backlog at that point -- whew! In fact theog.ho's Instagram post from last week with 287 cars in the lot? They're almost all gone now with one lone car in the lot at the end of today. All out on trucks. Employees are no longer allowed to park in the employee parking lot so the space can be used for Mach Es (someone will have to do a spatial analysis of the parking lots to see how many you think they hold).

That means those FCTP dates in November some of you heard from dealers make sense. However, they are talking about increasing that to double-triple the current rate in a couple of weeks once MP2 is underway. So, we'll estimate 600 cars per week by then. The good news is my contact expects them to reach 1000/week soon if there are no hiccups.

So I'm downgrading my model's throughput to an average of 200/week during MP1 (28 Sept-23 Oct), up to an average of 600 per week in the FCTP completion phase of MP2 (26 Oct-13 Nov.) and reaching 1000 per week once they start on customer orders on 16 Nov. Yes, I realize that it may make sense to interleave FEs in with FCTP cars to mix up the time per unit. However, I have no information on how to model that, so I'm sticking with a simpler model.

v.8 now produces 2,400 cars by 13 November. That should cover all FCTP and some FEs. 5,500 customer cars then are produced during 16 November-23 December. I've heard there's only a 1-week break at Christmas/New Years, so Run 2 has 13 weeks instead of 12.

With the reduced rates in mind, I'll bet they hold off on EU/UK cars until January, although they may run some tests through the line in December to prepare. This drops us to perhaps 5,500 customer units before the end of December. Fortunately, if shipping is reduced to a week, those will all get to dealers before the end of the year.

So, here are the new tables:

(unchanged)

(I'm not adjusting anything in late 2021 for now)

Potential reservation numbers reached in the next post.
The remaining good news is just when I go out on a limb with a new version, we learn new critical information. Fingers crossed it's good news!

*Canadian footnote: I'm assuming you'll get your cars by truck, too and it shouldn't take much longer to get there than US locations.

** European Mach Es may be trucked to the ports


I don't know that will affect timing much for you.

 

[ChasingCoral]

OK, based on v8 Guesstimates (https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-46715) here are my guesstimates on delivery and reservation/order numbers reached.

I'm going with the NEW and IMPROVED optimistic 1-2 weeks for delivery that has come from watching the Mach E Tour shipments and news that Cuautitlan doesn't use trains any more.

We'll stick with the 23 November OKTB date.

What will be stacked up in the lot on 23 November?
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
1,100 First Editions and probably nothing else. This does improve the odds for my 3 December guess on FE deliveries though!

This drops us to a total of about 2,500 Premiums with maybe a few CA Route 1s and Selects thrown in for line spacing by the end of the year. A total of 5,500 customer orders plus 2,300 FCTP (give or take a few 100).

We'll also assume the trucks will get them all to dealers by the first of the year. Of course, some may be a little late.

Since these are rough assumptions, I'll start with rough numbers:
Of course, reservations began with 4,000.
5,500 Mach Es becomes 11,000 reservation numbers accounting for half reserved in the EU/UK. The 5,500 also include 35% GTs that won't be made yet, so that's only 3,575 cars to be made.
So, 4,000 + 5,500 + 11,000 ~ 20,000

I estimate that in 2020, the total number of customer Mach Es to reach dealers may exceed reservation number 20,000 or most November reservations.

 

[macchiaz-o]

OK, based on v8 Guesstimates (https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-46715) here are my guesstimates on delivery and reservation/order numbers reached.

I'm going with the NEW and IMPROVED optimistic 1-2 weeks for delivery that has come from watching the Mach E Tour shipments and news that Cuautitlan doesn't use trains any more.

We'll stick with the 23 November OKTB date.

What will be stacked up in the lot on 23 November?
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
1,100 First Editions and probably nothing else. This does improve the odds for my 3 December guess on FE deliveries though!

This drops us to a total of about 2,500 Premiums with maybe a few CA Route 1s and Selects thrown in for line spacing by the end of the year. A total of 5,500 customer orders plus 2,300 FCTP (give or take a few 100).

We'll also assume the trucks will get them all to dealers by the first of the year. Of course, some may be a little late.

Since these are rough assumptions, I'll start with rough numbers:
Of course, reservations began with 4,000.
5,500 Mach Es becomes 11,000 reservation numbers accounting for half reserved in the EU/UK. The 5,500 also include 35% GTs that won't be made yet, so that's only 3,575 cars to be made.
So, 4,000 + 5,500 + 11,000 ~ 20,000

I estimate that in 2020, the total number of customer Mach Es to reach dealers may exceed reservation number 20,000 or most November reservations.

My favorite part of your posts is where you are predicting that I'll receive my vehicle in 2020. That would be great!!

 

[Jolteon]

Well, fellow anxious US Mach E buyers, we have good news and bad news for v.8.
Good news: They haven't used trains at the Cuautitlan plant in 15 years, and word has it they won't for Mach Es either.

That doesn't align with a family member's 2016 Fiesta and I could swear the paperwork for it said it shipped by rail. But it's possible the volumes have dropped at Cuautitlan so low that trucks are cheaper than maintaining the railhead. Or maybe they're trucking them to a railhead somewhere else?

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

OK, based on v8 Guesstimates (https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-46715) here are my guesstimates on delivery and reservation/order numbers reached.

I'm going with the NEW and IMPROVED optimistic 1-2 weeks for delivery that has come from watching the Mach E Tour shipments and news that Cuautitlan doesn't use trains any more.

We'll stick with the 23 November OKTB date.

What will be stacked up in the lot on 23 November?
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
1,100 First Editions and probably nothing else. This does improve the odds for my 3 December guess on FE deliveries though!

This drops us to a total of about 2,500 Premiums with maybe a few CA Route 1s and Selects thrown in for line spacing by the end of the year. A total of 5,500 customer orders plus 2,300 FCTP (give or take a few 100).

We'll also assume the trucks will get them all to dealers by the first of the year. Of course, some may be a little late.

Since these are rough assumptions, I'll start with rough numbers:
Of course, reservations began with 4,000.
5,500 Mach Es becomes 11,000 reservation numbers accounting for half reserved in the EU/UK. The 5,500 also include 35% GTs that won't be made yet, so that's only 3,575 cars to be made.
So, 4,000 + 5,500 + 11,000 ~ 20,000

I estimate that in 2020, the total number of customer Mach Es to reach dealers may exceed reservation number 20,000 or most November reservations.

Note to self: stop using ink pens for predictions of possible delivery dates.

 

[timbop]

OK, based on v8 Guesstimates (https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-46715) here are my guesstimates on delivery and reservation/order numbers reached.

I'm going with the NEW and IMPROVED optimistic 1-2 weeks for delivery that has come from watching the Mach E Tour shipments and news that Cuautitlan doesn't use trains any more.

We'll stick with the 23 November OKTB date.

What will be stacked up in the lot on 23 November?
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
1,100 First Editions and probably nothing else. This does improve the odds for my 3 December guess on FE deliveries though!

This drops us to a total of about 2,500 Premiums with maybe a few CA Route 1s and Selects thrown in for line spacing by the end of the year. A total of 5,500 customer orders plus 2,300 FCTP (give or take a few 100).

We'll also assume the trucks will get them all to dealers by the first of the year. Of course, some may be a little late.

Since these are rough assumptions, I'll start with rough numbers:
Of course, reservations began with 4,000.
5,500 Mach Es becomes 11,000 reservation numbers accounting for half reserved in the EU/UK. The 5,500 also include 35% GTs that won't be made yet, so that's only 3,575 cars to be made.
So, 4,000 + 5,500 + 11,000 ~ 20,000

I estimate that in 2020, the total number of customer Mach Es to reach dealers may exceed reservation number 20,000 or most November reservations.

Did you go by the name "David Stockman" back in the late 70's?

I don't know how you figured that out, but I am mesmerized enough to just shake my head and say "yeah, that makes sense".

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