Production runs & line output guesstimates

[FPLiptak]

OKTP MP2: OK to proceed to MP2 (yeah, there's an acronym for that. There's a TLA/FLA for everything)

Would the FLA be a Four Letter Acronym or a Five Letter Acronym?

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[ClaudeMach-E]

Please, spare the whip. I don't want unhappy employees like Tesla had in Fremont.

Are Tesla employee part of UAW?

 

[dbsb3233]

Are Tesla employee part of UAW?

No. But I don't think Ford plants in Mexico are either.

 

[Plutoman15]

Do we have any confirmation that a reservation number of 30,000 really means there are 29,999 cars ahead of you? Ford has always said that they are not linear. When I ordered my premium a week after my GT I actually got a lower reservation number by 1,000. We also know there were reservation numbers above the 50,000 mark. So it seems reasonable to believe that a reservation number of 30,000 probably means there are not 29,999 cars ahead of you but something less.

Anyone have evidence either way on this?

 

[jhalkias]

The problem with trucks is the volume. 1200 cars/week divided by 6 cars per carrier means 200 truckloads per week. Assuming it takes 3-4 days one way that means they'd need a dedicated fleet of at least 300 trucks. That seems like a lot. Shuffling from the plant to a nearby railyard would need 40 or less

Apparently semi carriers can hold up to 12 cars.
https://auto.howstuffworks.com/under-the-hood/auto-manufacturing/auto-transport.htm

 

[DaveRuns]

OK, based on v8 Guesstimates (https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-46715) here are my guesstimates on delivery and reservation/order numbers reached.

I'm going with the NEW and IMPROVED optimistic 1-2 weeks for delivery that has come from watching the Mach E Tour shipments and news that Cuautitlan doesn't use trains any more.

We'll stick with the 23 November OKTB date.

What will be stacked up in the lot on 23 November?
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
1,100 First Editions and probably nothing else. This does improve the odds for my 3 December guess on FE deliveries though!

This drops us to a total of about 2,500 Premiums with maybe a few CA Route 1s and Selects thrown in for line spacing by the end of the year. A total of 5,500 customer orders plus 2,300 FCTP (give or take a few 100).

We'll also assume the trucks will get them all to dealers by the first of the year. Of course, some may be a little late.

Since these are rough assumptions, I'll start with rough numbers:
Of course, reservations began with 4,000.
5,500 Mach Es becomes 11,000 reservation numbers accounting for half reserved in the EU/UK. The 5,500 also include 35% GTs that won't be made yet, so that's only 3,575 cars to be made.
So, 4,000 + 5,500 + 11,000 ~ 20,000

I estimate that in 2020, the total number of customer Mach Es to reach dealers may exceed reservation number 20,000 or most November reservations.

Hey Mark, if you play the stock market, feel free to pass some tips along.

 

[ClaudeMach-E]

No. But I don't think Ford plants in Mexico are either.

No but maybe they have their own union association there just like in Canada. In the article regarding the agreement between Ford and the provincial and federal government they where talking about the UNIFOR has the representative for the auto worker that also was part of it at the Oakville On. plant.

 

[Paulalex01]

While trucking them to a train could happen, I have to wonder if that’s cost effective. That means two truck legs and a train leg for shipping, lots of transfers and labor. Semi transport directly from to the destination makes more sense. If loaded right they can unload at multiple dealers and have less risk to the cars from loading damage - one on and one off.

I like quicker transport and lower risk but carbon footprint is lower by rail.

I think you may be right about the trucks. These cars are arriving at the dealerships in batches of one, maybe two at a time. Shipping by rail means shipping to a distribution point and then trucking. Lots of wasted time. It makes more sense to ship direct with trucks routing and dropping off individual cars at each dealership.

 

[DaveRuns]

I agree... normally Hermosillo goes by rail to a huge customs point into California. That said, Caut normally never produced for the US market.

Maybe this is just the “law and order” part of me thinking, but I wonder how much customs / government is involved with inspecting these MMEs....I mean, I wouldn’t put it past cartels to take advantage of thousands of vehicles coming into the US with tons of hiding spots. Just wondering if that would slow down the process considerably. Thinking out loud I guess.

 

[Gimme_my_MME]

Maybe this is just the “law and order” part of me thinking, but I wonder how much customs / government is involved with inspecting these MMEs....I mean, I wouldn’t put it past cartels to take advantage of thousands of vehicles coming into the US with tons of hiding spots. Just wondering if that would slow down the process considerably. Thinking out loud I guess.

Oh you mean something like this?
https://canada.autonews.com/retail/how-canadian-ford-dealerships-helped-bust-mexican-meth-shipment

 

[DaveRuns]

Oh you mean something like this?
https://canada.autonews.com/retail/how-canadian-ford-dealerships-helped-bust-mexican-meth-shipment

Haha!! Yes, something like that. These are things I think about for some reason. Occupational Hazard perhaps

 

[agoldman]

I'm guessing that they know what they are doing.

 

[RonTCat]

Would the FLA be a Four Letter Acronym or a Five Letter Acronym?

Yes, lol.

 

[SnBGC]

LOL Yes I know, I read that and my comment about that above specifically mentions trucks from the plants to rail yards somewhere else. So the plant contact would not know that...

Agree. Good possibility. I mean, those cars went somewhere and if OKTB is to have value then they shouldn't have gone too far away from the plant. A few hundred or even a few thousand cars isnt that much really. I see more cars than that parked at the rental car facility here at the airport...

 

[timbop]

Apparently semi carriers can hold up to 12 cars.
https://auto.howstuffworks.com/under-the-hood/auto-manufacturing/auto-transport.htm

A dedicated fleet of 150-200 trucks seems like a lot, too.

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