Production runs & line output guesstimates

SnBGC

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This brings me to another question on what would happen for people like me who reservation/order date is the same.

For example lets assume that I was the last person to reserve it and my number on the queue is 100,000 in reservation. Now there is no reservation, but directly orders on any new reservation.

Also assume that 40000 prior reservations have been converted to orders. So effectively my order is 40001 in the order queue.

As per some posts, i am seeing that Ford has some limitation for the amount of Batteries they can get for MY2021. It seems to be in around 50K range. So they cannot deliver more that number of vehicle for this model year.

Now lets say 20000 out of 60000 people who are ahead of me in the reservation list convert theirs to the order in late December after test drives. That would bring the total order count to be more than Ford can deliver.

In the current scenario, my fully Accepted order will be bumped out and would not be delivered for model year 2021 for the people who are placing their final order more than 2 months after my order. They should have some prioritizing for people who are ready to place an order without even seeing the car and have the delivery in the order of "Ordered Queue" rather than "Reservation Queue".

Or Ford should ask reservation people convert theirs to order within a smaller time frame before accepting any more new orders if they have a Battery constraint.

All these would irrelevant if Ford can get more batteries and increase production. The best case for all of us:cool:
I don't know the answer to your scenario.....none of us here do. However, I do know that Ford has been sending out e-mails to encourage reservations holders to convert to orders and also having the dealers follow up with phone calls etc. Each of those messages has language that pretty much says your 'place in line' (as we recently started calling it) may be in jeopardy.

I could be wrong but if your order is in Accepted status then I don't think it will be bumped out. Insider information posted here makes no bones about it.....if you have a reservation and you want one of these then you need to pull the trigger or expect to wait a while.
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I don't know the answer to your scenario.....none of us here do. However, I do know that Ford has been sending out e-mails to encourage reservations holders to convert to orders and also having the dealers follow up with phone calls etc. Each of those messages has language that pretty much says your 'place in line' (as we recently started calling it) may be in jeopardy.

I could be wrong but if your order is in Accepted status then I don't think it will be bumped out. Insider information posted here makes no bones about it.....if you have a reservation and you want one of these then you need to pull the trigger or expect to wait a while.

I hope my order doesn't get bumped out. I was late to the party. I placed my order/reservation on Oct 6th and was accepted by the dealer within 2 days.

I am just worried of not getting it till almost a year from now. As I have a felling a lot of the reservations will start converting soon, now that the cat(Pony) is out of the bag.
 

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I hope my order doesn't get bumped out. I was late to the party. I placed my order/reservation on Oct 6th and was accepted by the dealer within 2 days.

I am just worried of not getting it till almost a year from now. As I have a felling a lot of the reservations will start converting soon, now that the cat(Pony) is out of the bag.
You realize some of us are approaching waiting for a year already since we reserved ours, (he says with a smile)?
 
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ChasingCoral

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I hope my order doesn't get bumped out. I was late to the party. I placed my order/reservation on Oct 6th and was accepted by the dealer within 2 days.

I am just worried of not getting it till almost a year from now. As I have a felling a lot of the reservations will start converting soon, now that the cat(Pony) is out of the bag.
Don't forget there's another very important variable here: North American vs EU/UK orders. Most of the early discussions have been focused on just NA orders. Ford has to consider that they must sell a large number of Mach Es in EU/UK of it will cost them $Billions in fines for not making their CO2 targets.

Ford has a lot more going on here than just the fairness of order deliveries, especially for people who reserved early but haven't been willing to commit to orders.
 

SnBGC

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Small update. It appears that Job 1 remains on schedule for 10/26/20. We usually would have had a correction issued by now if that had changed so no news is good news I suppose.
 

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Don't forget there's another very important variable here: North American vs EU/UK orders. Most of the early discussions have been focused on just NA orders. Ford has to consider that they must sell a large number of Mach Es in EU/UK of it will cost them $Billions in fines for not making their CO2 targets.

Ford has a lot more going on here than just the fairness of order deliveries, especially for people who reserved early but haven't been willing to commit to orders.
It's what I said in the other thread but some brushed it off as if it was no concern. I think for them it is a very big concern. Every Mach-E sold to Europe is a decrease in fines. It's a win win for Ford and they are very aware of this.
 

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Don't forget there's another very important variable here: North American vs EU/UK orders. Most of the early discussions have been focused on just NA orders. Ford has to consider that they must sell a large number of Mach Es in EU/UK of it will cost them $Billions in fines for not making their CO2 targets.

Ford has a lot more going on here than just the fairness of order deliveries, especially for people who reserved early but haven't been willing to commit to orders.

Yes, now with the Kuga recall. They may be seriously thinking of diverting a lot more to EU/UK.

That doesn't bode well for me.

My only complain is that Ford still have the order books open for NA orders and on the order page say delivery starting late this year. Which is factually correct, but can be misleading for someone who orders now and later finds out that it would be probably end of next year rather than this year.

They probably have a number that they plan to send to EU/UK and they know that will be way more demand there than here in NA.

I just hope they can improve their system soon to inform more accurately by giving a Quarter range that they can expect the delivery in at the time of any new orders.

I think they might do that once they have the production fully going.
 

dbsb3233

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It's what I said in the other thread but some brushed it off as if it was no concern. I think for them it is a very big concern. Every Mach-E sold to Europe is a decrease in fines. It's a win win for Ford and they are very aware of this.
Trutolife27 said Ford is about to announce a partner to combine with for credits to avoid EU fines.

https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/more-mmes-to-europe.1716/#post-46268

Assuming OKTB stays true to Nov 23 before customer units can leave the plant, I don't think that allows time for any to get to Europe in 2020 anyway. Which would mean 2021 would be the year the Mach-E can help the EU fine situation, not 2020.

(Again, that's if what we're being told is accurate.)
 
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ChasingCoral

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Yes, now with the Kuga recall. They may be seriously thinking of diverting a lot more to EU/UK.

That doesn't bode well for me.

My only complain is that Ford still have the order books open for NA orders and on the order page say delivery starting late this year. Which is factually correct, but can be misleading for someone who orders now and later finds out that it would be probably end of next year rather than this year.

They probably have a number that they plan to send to EU/UK and they know that will be way more demand there than here in NA.

I just hope they can improve their system soon to inform more accurately by giving a Quarter range that they can expect the delivery in at the time of any new orders.

I think they might do that once they have the production fully going.
This is where your dealer should be setting the record straight. Just because deliveries are starting this year doesn't mean you'll get yours this year. The only customer ordered cars that will be delivered this year are First Editions and a small percentage of Premiums and perhaps other trims. Based on the calculations above, you will find that this year's deliveries will be for cars reserved last November and converted to orders this summer. If you ordered a car in October with no prior reservation, my best guess is your car will come no sooner than April and most probably summer of 2021.

Agreed. Ford really should be estimating delivery by quarter range when you place an order. There are lots of things Ford has not told any of us. Welcome to the club. Your learning curve starts now.
 
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ChasingCoral

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Trutolife27 said Ford is about to announce a partner to combine with for credits to avoid EU fines.

https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/more-mmes-to-europe.1716/#post-46268

Assuming OKTB stays true to Nov 23 before customer units can leave the plant, I don't think that allows time for any to get to Europe in 2020 anyway. Which would mean 2021 would be the year the Mach-E can help the EU fine situation, not 2020.

(Again, that's if what we're being told is accurate.)
One thing about this is absolutely true. Mach E deliveries will do nothing for Ford's carbon accounting in 2020!
 

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Yes, now with the Kuga recall. They may be seriously thinking of diverting a lot more to EU/UK.

That doesn't bode well for me.

My only complain is that Ford still have the order books open for NA orders and on the order page say delivery starting late this year. Which is factually correct, but can be misleading for someone who orders now and later finds out that it would be probably end of next year rather than this year.

They probably have a number that they plan to send to EU/UK and they know that will be way more demand there than here in NA.

I just hope they can improve their system soon to inform more accurately by giving a Quarter range that they can expect the delivery in at the time of any new orders.

I think they might do that once they have the production fully going.
I think by Nov-Dec there should be more concrete information available with respect to when the early non FE cars will be scheduled for production which can point to perhaps better estimations on what happens to the later ordered cars. Outside of these forums there is really no available information and without some insider information from some of the forum members most would be still in the dark. If Ford were to somehow procure more batteries and add some how again additional capacity the delivery situation might improve.
 

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Trutolife27 said Ford is about to announce a partner to combine with for credits to avoid EU fines.

https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/more-mmes-to-europe.1716/#post-46268

Assuming OKTB stays true to Nov 23 before customer units can leave the plant, I don't think that allows time for any to get to Europe in 2020 anyway. Which would mean 2021 would be the year the Mach-E can help the EU fine situation, not 2020.

(Again, that's if what we're being told is accurate.)
The only people who have confirmed their orders on this side of the pond at the moment are from the Netherlands (if you believe the stories) so if you follow the US timeliness your order book was open for 2 months before scheduling began. In the UK we have been told we can expect to confirm our orders BY the end of November and first deliveries expected 'early 2021. I believe that Ford will ship as many as possible to US before Christmas because it will be quicker and then concentrate UK/EUR cars in Dec to ship just before/after Christmas. As the UK is the only RHD market perhaps we have been allocated a slot already so they can get those out of the way in one hit. My guesstimate is that there are only 1000 - 1500 coming here anyway so in theory that could be 1 weeks production
 

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The only people who have confirmed their orders on this side of the pond at the moment are from the Netherlands (if you believe the stories) so if you follow the US timeliness your order book was open for 2 months before scheduling began. In the UK we have been told we can expect to confirm our orders BY the end of November and first deliveries expected 'early 2021. I believe that Ford will ship as many as possible to US before Christmas because it will be quicker and then concentrate UK/EUR cars in Dec to ship just before/after Christmas. As the UK is the only RHD market perhaps we have been allocated a slot already so they can get those out of the way in one hit. My guesstimate is that there are only 1000 - 1500 coming here anyway so in theory that could be 1 weeks production
We confirmed it in Norway
 

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Don't forget there's another very important variable here: North American vs EU/UK orders. Most of the early discussions have been focused on just NA orders. Ford has to consider that they must sell a large number of Mach Es in EU/UK of it will cost them $Billions in fines for not making their CO2 targets.

Ford has a lot more going on here than just the fairness of order deliveries, especially for people who reserved early but haven't been willing to commit to orders.
CO2/CAFE credits are fluid, and can be moved back three years and forward five years in the US. For example, credits earned in the 2024 model year can be applied back to the 2021MY, or forward to the 2029MY. Not sure if EU has put the same rules in place. If they have the same/similar rules, the credits issue is unimportant in the near term.
 
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ChasingCoral

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CO2/CAFE credits are fluid, and can be moved back three years and forward five years in the US. For example, credits earned in the 2024 model year can be applied back to the 2021MY, or forward to the 2029MY. Not sure if EU has put the same rules in place. If they have the same/similar rules, the credits issue is unimportant in the near term.
No. The EU rules are very different and very strict. I think the Germans wrote them.
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