Production runs & line output guesstimates

[jhalkias]

Typical press.

Sponsored

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

They both look like media stories, not Ford press releases.

They're rehashed information from Ford with just a bit of additional information added. I did this enough when I was a union officer to recognize it. Mind you, I'm not saying anything in there is disinformation or incorrect. But it was placed.

EDIT: I've also been known to be wrong. And recently too.

 

[sporty_stallion]

Agree with Kamuelaflyer and jhalkias


I also saw the article on Forbes before I saw trutolife27's post.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/brooke...odel-y-rival-revs-up-production/#6e099a061dac

The Credit: Ford was in the above article apparently to give credit for the photo image; Not to give credit to Ford for a press release.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Update on timing per https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2020/11/02/ford-mustang-mach-e-electric-suv/6083883002/
"We'll start to launch at the end of the year. We're just entering early mass production now, where we start to build the Mustang Mach-E's in volume," Farley said.

"We're not ramping up that curve and making hundreds a day," he said. "We're literally building Mach-E's right now and building a lot but in lower volumes. We'll build them and test them and make sure they're perfect. We sort out every problem. Once we're satisfied we've got every problem solved, then we turn on the light switch and go into job one."

Unfortunately, we don't know just how long ago Farley said this!

Here are the production rates used in v.8:

Those numbers were assuming averages of
MP1 200 cars per week (30-40 per day @ 6 days per week, 40 @ 5 days per week)
MP2 600 cars per week (100 per day @ 6 days per week, 120 @ 5)
Customer orders 1000 cars per week (> 160 per da @ 6 days per week, 200 @ 5)

If we ramp down a bit for v.9:

It drops us to only a few thousand customer vehicles (mostly destined for NA) by the end of the year. I'm not going to venture into distribution by model here. However, we are seeing almost all First Editions and Premiums.

I'd estimate 3000-5000 customer units produced in 2020 at this point.

 

[AndyS_OSU]

Update on timing per https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2020/11/02/ford-mustang-mach-e-electric-suv/6083883002/
"We'll start to launch at the end of the year. We're just entering early mass production now, where we start to build the Mustang Mach-E's in volume," Farley said.

"We're not ramping up that curve and making hundreds a day," he said. "We're literally building Mach-E's right now and building a lot but in lower volumes. We'll build them and test them and make sure they're perfect. We sort out every problem. Once we're satisfied we've got every problem solved, then we turn on the light switch and go into job one."

Unfortunately, we don't know just how long ago Farley said this!

Here are the production rates used in v.8:

Those numbers were assuming averages of
MP1 200 cars per week (30-40 per day @ 6 days per week, 40 @ 5 days per week)
MP2 600 cars per week (100 per day @ 6 days per week, 120 @ 5)
Customer orders 1000 cars per week (> 160 per da @ 6 days per week, 200 @ 5)

If we ramp down a bit for v.9:

It drops us to only a few thousand customer vehicles (mostly destined for NA) by the end of the year. I'm not going to venture into distribution by model here. However, we are seeing almost all First Editions and Premiums.

I'd estimate 3000-5000 customer units produced in 2020 at this point.

Produced but definitely not all delivered in 2020

 

[ChasingCoral]

Produced but definitely not all delivered in 2020

We don't have enough information to make any real guesses on delivery other than we've heard a one or more are getting to dealers on December 7th -- maybe with FCTP deliveries?

 

[JellyBelly]

We don't have enough information to make any real guesses on delivery other than we've heard a one or more are getting to dealers on December 7th -- maybe with FCTP deliveries?

MEs made early Nov have a chance of getting delivered in Dec -so you are probably right - and how many would those be? Hard to guess but less than a hundred delivered to dealers for customers in Dec?

 

[makooy]

Spoken with my dealer and the production and delivery dates changed.

He acknowledged that he saw around 20 VIN numbers in the system, for all their Batch 1 orders.

production
from: 20-nov-2020
to: 1-dec-2020

delivery
from: 20-feb-2021
to: 27-feb-2021

Got an appointment for this saturday to see the VIN's in real life and maybe take a picture.

This got me thinking that if 20 Batch-1 MME's of 1 NL dealer have the same production week and delivery week then what about the other 1980 Batch-1 MME's for NL? I can't believe that they only build these 20 for this dealer that week and hold the production for the other 1980. They must be in the weeks around my production date.

For what i've heard on Dutch forums, most Batch-1 buyers have a delivery end of Q1-2021 so their production date's must be around mine.

So i really dont get the point when someone's saying that no EU-cars are build in 2020. Only possibility that this argument is valid is then my production date is moved multiple times to begin 2021.

 

[Mopey]

If we ramp down a bit for v.9:

It drops us to only a few thousand customer vehicles (mostly destined for NA) by the end of the year. I'm not going to venture into distribution by model here. However, we are seeing almost all First Editions and Premiums.

I'd estimate 3000-5000 customer units produced in 2020 at this point.

First of your estimates I agree with.

 

[SnBGC]

Spoken with my dealer and the production and delivery dates changed.

He acknowledged that he saw around 20 VIN numbers in the system, for all their Batch 1 orders.

production
from: 20-nov-2020
to: 1-dec-2020

delivery
from: 20-feb-2021
to: 27-feb-2021

Got an appointment for this saturday to see the VIN's in real life and maybe take a picture.

This got me thinking that if 20 Batch-1 MME's of 1 NL dealer have the same production week and delivery week then what about the other 1980 Batch-1 MME's for NL? I can't believe that they only build these 20 for this dealer that week and hold the production for the other 1980. They must be in the weeks around my production date.

For what i've heard on Dutch forums, most Batch-1 buyers have a delivery end of Q1-2021 so their production date's must be around mine.

So i really dont get the point when someone's saying that no EU-cars are build in 2020. Only possibility that this argument is valid is then my production date is moved multiple times to begin 2021.

I think we have seen that several to very many cars for Netherlands are being assembled in 2020. Some are pre-OKTB and some are after OKTB. I have no inside information on this but just going off what is posted here and some other places. If I were to hazard a guess......it makes complete and total sense to make a large batch of cars to sail across the ocean. The NL cars are large orders and I believe the revenue is booked in 2020 so there is also a financial reason to build lots of cars for that market. And if you are shipping cars to NL.....then might as well make as as many dealer demos and let them ride along. Just my $0.02....

 

[SnBGC]

...
It drops us to only a few thousand customer vehicles (mostly destined for NA) by the end of the year. I'm not going to venture into distribution by model here. However, we are seeing almost all First Editions and Premiums.

I'd estimate 3000-5000 customer units produced in 2020 at this point.

My estimates are very close to your figures however I suspect the production ramp up is going better than expected. I think there might be a reasonable chance the plant could average 800 vehicles per week for the remainder of the year (8 weeks of production). If I am close, then that is 6400 units from today forward. Does your source have any intelligence related to what the production volume might be this week? I am guess it's well over 100 units per day by this point but that is just a guess....

Do we have a Job #2 milestone in this process? If so, would that be 11/23/20 or the would it be start of first customer cars? I don't know that Ford has a history of identifying customer cars as any sort of milestone so I would suspect if there is a Job #2 then it stands to reason it might be the OKTB date.

Not that it matters much.....but we do know that some customer cars are being assembled prior to OKTB. Looks like the NL cars might lead that group but there are a few for NA that we are aware of. This was also mentioned in a recent media release for the Spain market.

 

[ChasingCoral]

My estimates are very close to your figures however I suspect the production ramp up is going better than expected. I think there might be a reasonable chance the plant could average 800 vehicles per week for the remainder of the year (8 weeks of production). If I am close, then that is 6400 units from today forward. Does your source have any intelligence related to what the production volume might be this week? I am guess it's well over 100 units per day by this point but that is just a guess....

Do we have a Job #2 milestone in this process? If so, would that be 11/23/20 or the would it be start of first customer cars? I don't know that Ford has a history of identifying customer cars as any sort of milestone so I would suspect if there is a Job #2 then it stands to reason it might be the OKTB date.

Not that it matters much.....but we do know that some customer cars are being assembled prior to OKTB. Looks like the NL cars might lead that group but there are a few for NA that we are aware of. This was also mentioned in a recent media release for the Spain market.

Agreed. They may already be working in some customer units and may interleave customer and FCTP vehicles for given markets rather than doing all the FCTP first. We just haven't heard that much intel. Unfortunately, my source is not reliable for current assembly line production rates. I've asked before and received "I don't know". Maybe @trutolife27 has better input on current production rates.

A week ago my contact did expect they would be up to 600/week soon, so hundred not hundreds per day.

We are rapidly reaching the point that without direct intel from Cuautitlan on production rates, we're learning more from build schedules.

 

[RonTCat]

Agreed. They may already be working in some customer units and may interleave customer and FCTP vehicles for given markets rather than doing all the FCTP first. We just haven't heard that much intel. Unfortunately, my source is not reliable for current assembly line production rates. I've asked before and received "I don't know". Maybe @trutolife27 has better input on current production rates.

A week ago my contact did expect they would be up to 600/week soon, so hundred not hundreds per day.

We are rapidly reaching the point that without direct intel from Cuautitlan on production rates, we're learning more from build schedules.

It is Ford policy not to release production rates, which is why Farley will just say "ramping up" or other vague statements relating to rates.

 

[SnBGC]

Agreed. They may already be working in some customer units and may interleave customer and FCTP vehicles for given markets rather than doing all the FCTP first. We just haven't heard that much intel. Unfortunately, my source is not reliable for current assembly line production rates. I've asked before and received "I don't know". Maybe @trutolife27 has better input on current production rates.

A week ago my contact did expect they would be up to 600/week soon, so hundred not hundreds per day.

We are rapidly reaching the point that without direct intel from Cuautitlan on production rates, we're learning more from build schedules.

That makes sense. That 600/week figure aligns with the data we have so far. If production rates are "ramping up" then the plant could be at 900/week by mid Dec and maybe 1000-1200/week by early Jan. That jives with the VIN sequence/build date info we have so far. Another 'waterfall' of build dates would help validate or cast doubt on this theory....

It is Ford policy not to release production rates, which is why Farley will just say "ramping up" or other vague statements relating to rates.

Agreed. Lets not hold our breath that we'll ever get a firm grasp on that figure until we are able to count new vehicle registrations. We will just have to keep in mind there will be a spike in registrations when the FCTP vehicles are mature and can be sold.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Version 10
Hold onto that chicken handle over the window of your Mach E because we have just accelerated fast like BEVs do best!

Based on the new video at https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/mustang-mach-e-presentation-inside-mexico-plant.1928/ and intel provided by our best inside sources, the line seems to be running at 20 vehicles per hour.

This morning, @trutolife27 said:

Hmmm 20 per hour, all that talk of different areas, the paint is way better than tesla, have the same vision system as ktp .hmmm. wonder who said will be about 26 an hour when they get rolling and said 20 per hour now?
?
Also
ChasingCoral Do your math now. 2 shifts 10 hour each 5 days a week. lets just go with 20 an hour. It will be 26 by November 26th is all goes right. So u could even if "you" like do a what could be then.

Demos are getting cranked out left and right and getting close to being done with them.
There will be some production cars getting made before the 26th how many I don't know.

with a subsequent update:

They are working 7.2 hours 5 days a week. Why I dont know yet. Just got that info for this week.

The new line calculation seems to be:
2*7*5*20 = 1,400 cars per week now
and
2*7*5*26 = 1,820 cars per week after November 26th.
I'm going to cut 10% off those to be a little conservative.

If these are correct, that means the production rates are much higher than even the optimistic estimates I used before:

That means up to 13,000 Mach Es produced by the end of December.
It also means they can reach at least 70,000 vehicles in the first run by the end of July, increasing North American deliveries from 20,000 to ~40,000. This is consistent with some of the demand numbers we've heard on here.

From today's build date assignments, combined with the Dutch build dates from @makooy and information from @portlandg and others about impending order conversions in the UK, I think we'll see a limited EU/UK production in December followed by simultaneous NA and EU/UK production starting in January.

Therefore I currently estimate with ~11,000 cars to North America in 2020 (~2,000 FCTP and ~9,000 customer cars) and 2,000 for EU/UK. Even so, that's a lot of cars!

Even I find these numbers a bit hard to believe!