Reservation cancellations

Johnny

Member
First Name
John
Joined
Feb 15, 2020
Messages
20
Reaction score
15
Location
New Jersey
First Name
John
Vehicles
Buick Enclave, Volvo S40
Occupation
Accountant
Country flag
Any idea what the rate of cancellations is? I'm seeing order numbers for recent orders north of 74,000. Given that they are only producing 50,000, does that mean there's been 24,000+ cancellations?
 

timbop

Well-Known Member
First Name
Tim
Joined
Jan 3, 2020
Messages
771
Reaction score
719
Location
New Jersey
First Name
Tim
Vehicles
2015 Mustang Convertible, 2016 Dodge Durango
Occupation
Software Engineer
Country flag
NO, that doesn't mean that. The reservation numbers were not incremented by 1, and the order numbers created from reservations appear to have the order number = reservation number
 

macchiaz-o

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 25, 2019
Messages
523
Reaction score
592
Location
Valley of the Sun
Vehicles
Fiesta
Country flag
The first 10004000 numbers weren't assigned to anyone that we know about. Speculation is that maybe much of that first "4000" is for dealer test drive units, reviewers, testing, and similar purposes.

Although the numbers seem to mostly climb upwards, we've no evidence that they are incremental. In fact, although we (on the forums) haven't seen this too much, we have seen some reports of individuals who received a lower reservation number than other individuals, but in reverse chronological order. So they aren't even necessarily sequential, but more likely in batched sequences.

So in short, we have no idea how many reservations or cancellations have happened.
 
OP

Johnny

Member
First Name
John
Joined
Feb 15, 2020
Messages
20
Reaction score
15
Location
New Jersey
First Name
John
Vehicles
Buick Enclave, Volvo S40
Occupation
Accountant
Country flag
  • Thread starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #4
The first 10004000 numbers weren't assigned to anyone that we know about. Speculation is that maybe much of that first "4000" is for dealer test drive units, reviewers, testing, and similar purposes.

Although the numbers seem to mostly climb upwards, we've no evidence that they are incremental. In fact, although we (on the forums) haven't seen this too much, we have seen some reports of individuals who received a lower reservation number than other individuals, but in reverse chronological order. So they aren't even necessarily sequential, but more likely in batched sequences.

So in short, we have no idea how many reservations or cancellations have happened.
Shoot! Was thinking (albeit with much hope) that if they had a 50% cancellation rate I might have all the more reason to think I could actually be driving a MME in 2020!

So I guess I'll have to rely on Ford exceeding initial production estimates!
 

NEMuskRat

Active Member
First Name
John
Joined
Jan 14, 2020
Messages
27
Reaction score
14
Location
Spfld, MA
First Name
John
Vehicles
1983 Delorean, 2007 SC Mustang, 2018 F150 FX4, 2019 Escape
Occupation
Electron Beam Eng
Country flag
I have a question off of this subject which I might have missed somewhere else.

We have our original "pre-order" #. There are a lot of people that are waiting till they can ride in the car before final confirmation of order. If we confirm 1st, does that mean we move up in the order or are we still in the same line?

I know that my confirmed order# stayed the same after it was submitted.

Any thoughts?
 

hybrid2bev

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 4, 2019
Messages
641
Reaction score
1,114
Location
USA
Vehicles
2017 C-Max Hybrid
Country flag
I have a question off of this subject which I might have missed somewhere else.

We have our original "pre-order" #. There are a lot of people that are waiting till they can ride in the car before final confirmation of order. If we confirm 1st, does that mean we move up in the order or are we still in the same line?

I know that my confirmed order# stayed the same after it was submitted.

Any thoughts?
When production sequencing starts the schedulers will prioritize orders that have been received by reservation timestamp. Then once they start planning the sequence of the next batch they'll prioritize that next batch by timestamps, so on and so forth.

So, as new orders come in later they will go into the next available production run based on the trim level and will have their priority sequenced by reservation timestamp. Production will not wait until all reservations are converted. They will start working with the orders they have at the time the batch is sequenced. If you wait you'll still be prioritized by your reservation timestamp, but it will be in a later production run.

The First Editions should be produced first. Then my assumption is that since Ford has updated the Select and Rt 1 to also have late 2020 availability, like the Premium always was, that they will start producing all the non-GT trims right after the First Editions.
 
Last edited:

ChasingCoral

Well-Known Member
First Name
Mark
Joined
Feb 3, 2020
Messages
991
Reaction score
910
Location
Maryland
First Name
Mark
Vehicles
Mach-E FE reserved, Nissan Leaf, Toyota Tacoma
Country flag
Shoot! Was thinking (albeit with much hope) that if they had a 50% cancellation rate I might have all the more reason to think I could actually be driving a MME in 2020!

So I guess I'll have to rely on Ford exceeding initial production estimates!
We are fairly certain reservation numbers were quasi-sequential and issued from multiple 1000 # batches simultaneously. Even recently, we see different numbers in the thousands column of numbers issued at about the same time or out of order. Just because your reservation number is over 70,000 doesn't mean there were more than 50,000 valid reservations. It certainly doesn't mean there are more than 50,000 orders as orders are still coming in.

The fact that Ford gave you a reservation leads me to believe they plan to build you a MY 2020 car.
 
OP

Johnny

Member
First Name
John
Joined
Feb 15, 2020
Messages
20
Reaction score
15
Location
New Jersey
First Name
John
Vehicles
Buick Enclave, Volvo S40
Occupation
Accountant
Country flag
  • Thread starter
  • Thread Starter
  • #8
We are fairly certain reservation numbers were quasi-sequential and issued from multiple 1000 # batches simultaneously. Even recently, we see different numbers in the thousands column of numbers issued at about the same time or out of order. Just because your reservation number is over 70,000 doesn't mean there were more than 50,000 valid reservations. It certainly doesn't mean there are more than 50,000 orders as orders are still coming in.

The fact that Ford gave you a reservation leads me to believe they plan to build you a MY 2020 car.
I think you mean Model Year 2021?

So what I'm gathering is that if my reservation/order number is 10024000, that doesn't necessarily mean that my reservation was the 24,000th reservation placed. It could actually be higher or lower than that?
 

methorian

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 18, 2019
Messages
80
Reaction score
60
Location
Roanoke, VA
Vehicles
Mach-E First Edition (Reservation)
Country flag
I think you mean Model Year 2021?

So what I'm gathering is that if my reservation/order number is 10024000, that doesn't necessarily mean that my reservation was the 24,000th reservation placed. It could actually be higher or lower than that?
I believe this to be true.

As the reveal was happening last year I was on my laptop frantically refreshing the page in order to place my reservation, and did so as soon as it came online. I got a 6,000 reservation number. Folks who were doing the same as me got a 4,000 reservation number. I don't think there were that many people immediately putting in reservations (though maybe there were...).

It also makes sense because Ford has said production based on "timestamp" and not reservation/order number. This leads me to believe numbers were not in order...
 

dbsb3233

Well-Known Member
First Name
Tim
Joined
Dec 30, 2019
Messages
1,483
Reaction score
1,063
Location
Colorado, USA
First Name
Tim
Vehicles
2013 Ford Escape
Occupation
Retired
Country flag
I think you mean Model Year 2021?

So what I'm gathering is that if my reservation/order number is 10024000, that doesn't necessarily mean that my reservation was the 24,000th reservation placed. It could actually be higher or lower than that?
Yes. But they're not completely random either. There was clearly some correlation to res# and the date ordered for most people, as the sampling of res#'s reported here and the other forum mostly followed a date pattern. But seems pretty clear there were also some gaps in numbers (particularly the higher ones above 35,000). Up until that area (~January), they seemed to be following a mostly sequential order by date (before there seemed to be some big gaps). But not absolute.

All that to say that the res# probably gives you a some approximation of where you are in line, but not absolutely.
 

jhalkias

Well-Known Member
First Name
John
Joined
Mar 3, 2020
Messages
233
Reaction score
218
Location
Ohio
First Name
John
Vehicles
2016 Escape, 2019 Fusion Energi
Occupation
Benefit Fund Administrator
Country flag
I believe this to be true.

As the reveal was happening last year I was on my laptop frantically refreshing the page in order to place my reservation, and did so as soon as it came online. I got a 6,000 reservation number. Folks who were doing the same as me got a 4,000 reservation number. I don't think there were that many people immediately putting in reservations (though maybe there were...).

It also makes sense because Ford has said production based on "timestamp" and not reservation/order number. This leads me to believe numbers were not in order...
I was doing the same as you, and I got a 4,000 series number.
 

ChasingCoral

Well-Known Member
First Name
Mark
Joined
Feb 3, 2020
Messages
991
Reaction score
910
Location
Maryland
First Name
Mark
Vehicles
Mach-E FE reserved, Nissan Leaf, Toyota Tacoma
Country flag
I think you mean Model Year 2021?

So what I'm gathering is that if my reservation/order number is 10024000, that doesn't necessarily mean that my reservation was the 24,000th reservation placed. It could actually be higher or lower than that?
Yes, sorry. 2021.
 

Rconkling

New Member
Joined
Jul 1, 2020
Messages
4
Reaction score
0
Location
STL
Vehicles
Mach E FE
Country flag
I reserved with in 5-10 min of finding the link on IG or Twitter. Got a mid 7000 #
 

ChasingCoral

Well-Known Member
First Name
Mark
Joined
Feb 3, 2020
Messages
991
Reaction score
910
Location
Maryland
First Name
Mark
Vehicles
Mach-E FE reserved, Nissan Leaf, Toyota Tacoma
Country flag
I reserved with in 5-10 min of finding the link on IG or Twitter. Got a mid 7000 #
Yes, that agrees with the theory they had four 1000 number sequences running simultaneously at the start.
 
Top