Tesla Supercharger Network vs. the World

silverelan

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Interesting YouTube content comparing Superchargers to CCS network.


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DBC

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Videos like this one are all "What You See Is All There Is", meaning that the assumption is that things will stay the same moving forward. This is rarely the case, and certainly not for electric vehicle charging. But what we do know is that when a proprietary network tries to compete with a open standards network it always loses. It can, and usually does, sprint into the lead early, but as the game progresses it's relegated to the bench.

We just saw how this works with CHAdeMO. Plenty of "experts" argued that CHAdeMO would leave CCS in the dust. According this line of reasoning, CCS was late to the party and there were far more CHAdeMO chargers and CHAdeMO equipped vehicles. Didn't work out that way. With an open standard, auto manufacturers implemented CCS charging and all the charging networks implemented CCS charging stations. Didn't take long. Not only did CCS not win out, but CHAdeMO is now more or less a dead standard.

Tesla charging will suffer the same fate. It may hang on for longer but ultimately it's a dead man walking. As there are more CCS equipped vehicles and more CCS charging stations, at some point Tesla will move to CCS, mostly likely at first with an adapter, and then the Tesla charging stations will become stranded investments.

In a similar vein, the negatives for CCS charging are all transient:

1. No easy way to pay: The patchwork of charging networks, each with its own app, is certainly a problem. But it's a problem which can be solved fairly easily. Ford thinks it has the answer with FordPass. That may not be perfect out of the box, and it might be displaced by a better system, but it shows how software can turn multiple apps into one. No doubt at some point in the near future you'll just be able to plug your car into a charger, the charging network will recognize your vehicle and charge your vehicle.

2. Reliability: This one seems to already be solved. A year ago the EA network was a bit dicey. Not now. Now it's quite reliable and getting more so all the time.

3. Availability of 350 kW chargers: The SAE DC 400A/1000V standard wasn't adopted until late 2018. Twenty four months later and I'm not sure anyone is making charges that won't support 350 kW charging. Going forward expect all CCS highway charging to support 350 kW. Not that this will matter if you have a Mach-E. LOL

4. Pay per time: As the video alluded to, the "charge by the minute" approach isn't based on technology or economics, it's based on legal restrictions imposed by state PUCs. These rules were put in place to protect local electrical utility companies from competition. But in today's world, a world in which electric vehicle charging is about the only growth opportunity available, electrical utilities don't need or even want this protection. State PUCs are coming around and dropping the prohibition on per kWh pricing, but there is regulatory lag. It will happen, in some places sooner than in others.

5. Number of charge stations: The number of charge stations you need depends on how many vehicles need to be charged. That's a bit of a "Duh" but the video seems to miss it. If Tesla has twice as many charges, but four times as many vehicles charging at those chargers, then CCS charging is "more available". And ultimately it won't matter. As there are more CCS equipped vehicles needing to charge, there will be more CCS chargers. At the moment there seems to be more chargers than vehicles so it would seem not to be an issue.
 

RonTCat

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CSS is VHS, and Tesla Superchargers are Betamax. I think the outcome will be the same.
 

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Videos like this one are all "What You See Is All There Is", meaning that the assumption is that things will stay the same moving forward. This is rarely the case, and certainly not for electric vehicle charging. But what we do know is that when a proprietary network tries to compete with a open standards network it always loses. It can, and usually does, sprint into the lead early, but as the game progresses it's relegated to the bench.

We just saw how this works with CHAdeMO. Plenty of "experts" argued that CHAdeMO would leave CCS in the dust. According this line of reasoning, CCS was late to the party and there were far more CHAdeMO chargers and CHAdeMO equipped vehicles. Didn't work out that way. With an open standard, auto manufacturers implemented CCS charging and all the charging networks implemented CCS charging stations. Didn't take long. Not only did CCS not win out, but CHAdeMO is now more or less a dead standard.

Tesla charging will suffer the same fate. It may hang on for longer but ultimately it's a dead man walking. As there are more CCS equipped vehicles and more CCS charging stations, at some point Tesla will move to CCS, mostly likely at first with an adapter, and then the Tesla charging stations will become stranded investments.

In a similar vein, the negatives for CCS charging are all transient:

1. No easy way to pay: The patchwork of charging networks, each with its own app, is certainly a problem. But it's a problem which can be solved fairly easily. Ford thinks it has the answer with FordPass. That may not be perfect out of the box, and it might be displaced by a better system, but it shows how software can turn multiple apps into one. No doubt at some point in the near future you'll just be able to plug your car into a charger, the charging network will recognize your vehicle and charge your vehicle.

2. Reliability: This one seems to already be solved. A year ago the EA network was a bit dicey. Not now. Now it's quite reliable and getting more so all the time.

3. Availability of 350 kW chargers: The SAE DC 400A/1000V standard wasn't adopted until late 2018. Twenty four months later and I'm not sure anyone is making charges that won't support 350 kW charging. Going forward expect all CCS highway charging to support 350 kW. Not that this will matter if you have a Mach-E. LOL

4. Pay per time: As the video alluded to, the "charge by the minute" approach isn't based on technology or economics, it's based on legal restrictions imposed by state PUCs. These rules were put in place to protect local electrical utility companies from competition. But in today's world, a world in which electric vehicle charging is about the only growth opportunity available, electrical utilities don't need or even want this protection. State PUCs are coming around and dropping the prohibition on per kWh pricing, but there is regulatory lag. It will happen, in some places sooner than in others.

5. Number of charge stations: The number of charge stations you need depends on how many vehicles need to be charged. That's a bit of a "Duh" but the video seems to miss it. If Tesla has twice as many charges, but four times as many vehicles charging at those chargers, then CCS charging is "more available". And ultimately it won't matter. As there are more CCS equipped vehicles needing to charge, there will be more CCS chargers. At the moment there seems to be more chargers than vehicles so it would seem not to be an issue.
<<and then the Tesla charging stations will become stranded investments. >>

This is delusionary.
 


GoGoGadgetMachE

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I've been appropriately critical of Tesla on here but the charging network is currently an advantage for parts of the country. It's not so everywhere, and it's not necessarily going to be so forever. But Tesla is continuing to build - the network's not "done" by any stretch.

I think what will end up hurting Tesla here is that there's multiple companies building networks. Long term, there's a good chance that will end up allowing catch-up to happen.

The question is, then what? I can't believe the Tesla network will just go away. It's too big and too established, and there's too many cars that can use it. It's more likely to be like CHAdeMO where it will slowly go away, to be honest - failing stations not replaced, locations getting taken out as sites are upgraded, and so on.

But honestly none of us really have any idea of what's going to happen.
 

EVer

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While tesla currently loses money with the network (it was once a necessity and is now a loss leader), one they stop expanding it can be self-sustaining. I have no reason to suspect it will go away, quickly or slowly.

Given Tesla’s willingness to operate it at a loss, and their presence in generation and storage, they can be very competitive if they so choose to attract more people to their brand. Independent charging networks have to be profitable on their own (electrify America may not if VW underwrites it after the settlement phase ends).
 

DBC

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<<and then the Tesla charging stations will become stranded investments. >>

This is delusionary.
Exactly what the CHAdeMO champions said. And they had all the reasons you likely have. But the fact is that every proprietary network suffers the same fate and Tesla's won't be any different. As LYTMCQ points out, CCS has already killed the supercharger network in Europe. It will take longer in NA because Tesla has a larger network and the NA CCS network has not gotten up to speed.

It's not a huge deal in that Tesla can sell CCS capable vehicles just as they do there.

CSS is VHS, and Tesla Superchargers are Betamax. I think the outcome will be the same.
VHS and Betamax were both proprietary. A better analogy might be all the wireless protocols that were displaced by WiFi or the Sony memory sticks that were displaced by CF and SD cards.

This isn't really the end of the world. Sony still successfully sells digital cameras. Those cameras just use open standard memory rather than Sony's proprietary memory. And Tesla still sells cars in Europe. It just sells cars that can use CCS.

I think what will end up hurting Tesla here is that there's multiple companies building networks. Long term, there's a good chance that will end up allowing catch-up to happen.

The question is, then what? I can't believe the Tesla network will just go away.... But honestly none of us really have any idea of what's going to happen.
Yes the numbers just dictate the result. When Ford, GM, VW, Audi, BMW etc. all use one standard it becomes untenable to maintain another. I don't know what Tesla's market share of BEVs is but it has to be close to 80% in NA. When it gets to 30%, which it will, then operating a proprietary network becomes problematic. CCS has scale because of Europe and NA.

Tesla could just keep operating the network and let it slowly die, which I think is what is happening in Europe, or they could sell it.

It's difficult to predict the path, but proprietary networks don't successfully compete with open standard networks. How and when death occurs is always unpredictable but the event is fairly certain.
 

EVer

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How can you say those two things in the same post with a straight face? “Tesla offers adapters and Tesla owners have no choice in charging” ... those are mutually exclusive.

The reality is: Tesla loses money on its charging network, and Tesla empowers its buyers to be entirely independent with j1772 (US) and menekes (Europe) adapters included with each vehicle, as well as level 2 home charging solutions.

They could very easily give no choice (only allowing proprietary DCFC and not including AC-DC chargers in the car). They don’t. Nobody does. No vehicle maker is chasing charging as a business model.
 

EVer

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Source? That is unsupported by any of Tesla’s SEC filings.
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