There aren’t enough new cars, main US automotive lender says

[trutolife27]

There aren’t enough new cars, main US automotive lender says
Jenny Surane and Gabrielle Coppola
Bloomberg

Ally Financial Inc., the largest U.S. auto lender, said carmakers should get busy.
There’s enough consumer demand for manufacturers to ramp-up output of new models but not enough supply, Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Brown told investors at a conference on Tuesday.

“Factories have to get back to work,” Brown said, noting he’s been in discussions with Rick Hendrick of Hendrick Automotive Group, of Hendrick Automotive Group, which has 95 dealership locations across the country. “When I talk to his stores directly, they tell me their biggest challenge is lack of new-car inventory. The factories aren’t producing enough.”

Automakers have been stretched thin by pandemic-related absenteeism, distancing protocols, quarantines and supply-chain constraints. All this, combined with the two-month shutdown this spring to contain Covid-19, has made it difficult for factories to match the rebound in consumer demand for new vehicles driven by low interest rates and a shift toward private transportation.
Companies are trying to make up the difference even as virus cases surge to new records. Output is nearing pre-pandemic levels, but inventories are still thin. The number of all new cars and trucks available in the U.S. was almost one million units lower in October than a year earlier, according to researcher LMC Automotive.

Complaining about depleted supply is a common refrain from dealers, but Brown’s comments are a bit of a departure for lenders. Banks have spent years wagging their fingers at automakers for pushing out too many cars.
The lack of reliable inventory is helping to spur business at new players in the used-car space, such as Sonic Automotive Inc.’s EchoPark and Carvana Co., Brown warned.

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[trutolife27]

Michelin boss says first half of 2021 could be rough for automakers
Mark Phelan
Detroit Free Press

Auto sales and production will recover from COVID-19 by the end of next year — barring further shocks — but the pandemic will have far-reaching effects on the industry from leadership to who drives where, the leader of tire maker Michelin’s North American operations predicts.
“By the end of next year, we could be back to pre-COVID levels," Alexis Garcin, president and CEO of Michelin North America said in a preview of remarks he plans to give Wednesday during a program sponsored by the North American International Auto Show. “But so much is unknown.”

Garcin believes we haven’t yet seen the full impact of job losses and illness in the second half of this year.
“The first half of 2021 is a concern,” said Garcin, who will speak as part of Q’d Up Mobility, a series of media presentations by auto industry thought leaders and sponsored by the auto show, which is scheduled for Sept. 24-Oct. 10 in Detroit.


“It will be an interesting year,” he said. “The first half may be quite difficult.”
New reasons people want cars
The number of miles people drive declined this year, especially during states’ various lockdown periods. It’s the beginning of a lasting transformation, but not a decline in people’s need for vehicles, he said.

“We will live and work differently after COVID. There was a short-term effect on miles driven, but it will not be long term. A year ago, we thought younger generations were moving away from owning vehicles to getting an Uber. Now people are coming back to cars.”
That trend includes dense areas where people previously relied on mass transit, he said.
All that increases the importance of sustainable vehicles and manufacturing.
Michelin’s efforts include planting forests and changing how its factories operate to make its new E-Primacy tire carbon-neutral. That’s difficult, because tires consist largely of oil-based materials.
The E-Primacy tire has low rolling resistance, which saves fuel and increases a vehicle’s range. Available in Europe today, it’s the forerunner of North American tires with similar characteristics.

Michelin is also developing tires specifically for electric vehicles, which will have to combine low rolling resistance with extra durability to handle EVs’ high torque output and heavy weight, both of which put extra strain on tires.
Hydrogen coming soon?
Garcin is bullish about widespread use of hydrogen to produce electricity to power vehicles. Michelin has a joint venture developing hydrogen fuel cells for vehicles with Faurecia, an interior supplier.
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Depending on how it’s produced, hydrogen can be the most environmentally neutral fuel. Hydrogen stations are few and far between, but refilling takes about as much time as filling a gas tank, much quicker than charging a battery-powered vehicle.
“It’s one of the most important sustainability solutions,” Garcin said. “We believe strongly in hydrogen.”
All that makes it the darling of engineers and optimists, but hydrogen has seemed to be the permanent “fuel of the future,” offering immense promise but never delivering on widespread benefits.
“It will take time,” particularly to build a network of fueling stations, “but widespread use of hydrogen is a matter of years, not decades,” he said.

 

[JamieGeek]

Hydrogen for cars is dead.

The more battery tech improves (and the costs lower) the economics (and technical difficulties) of hydrogen become unwieldly.

Re: https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...tate-lithium-metal-battery-breakthrough.2271/

 

[GoGoGadgetMachE]

Hydrogen for cars is dead.

Explosive if true.

 

[bluestarct]

Hydrogen for cars is dead.

The more battery tech improves (and the costs lower) the economics (and technical difficulties) of hydrogen become unwieldly.

Re: https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...tate-lithium-metal-battery-breakthrough.2271/

We really can't tell at this time if hydrogen technology is dead or not. We have heard about solid state batteries for quite some time but until they can be mass produced it is still a work in progress. Even though it is probably will not be the end all be all.

Most likely we end up with a mixture of multiple technologies. Hydrogen fuel could be part of this and so could solid state batteries.

Hydrogen is promising in that it has a higher energy density than lithium batteries and is likely to be used in long haul trucking due to the quick recharge capability. Lithium batteries run into a weight problem for long haul trucks. Engineering Explained did a fairly good presentation on this a few months ago.




All of these technologies can help move us off ICE vehicles which should be our long term goal.

 

[JamieGeek]

We really can't tell at this time if hydrogen technology is dead or not. We have heard about solid state batteries for quite some time but until they can be mass produced it is still a work in progress. Even though it is probably will not be the end all be all.

Most likely we end up with a mixture of multiple technologies. Hydrogen fuel could be part of this and so could solid state batteries.

Hydrogen is promising in that it has a higher energy density than lithium batteries and is likely to be used in long haul trucking due to the quick recharge capability. Lithium batteries run into a weight problem for long haul trucks. Engineering Explained did a fairly good presentation on this a few months ago.


All of these technologies can help move us off ICE vehicles which should be our long term goal.

Sure but there is still the infrastructure and storage problems with hydrogen--neither of which have shown improvements lately.

Yes solid state batteries have been discussed for quite some time with no results to show for it either but there are far more companies, universities, etc. researching battery tech than there are for hydrogen. For the past few years battery tech has seen a steady improvement in capacity, and costs.

 

[MerryBrown]

Hydrogen for cars is dead.

The more battery tech improves (and the costs lower) the economics (and technical difficulties) of hydrogen become unwieldly.

Re: https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...tate-lithium-metal-battery-breakthrough.2271/

My brother was out for a drive with his Porsche club and saw a hydrogen refueling station in the "mountains" above San Mateo/Half Moon Bay California. This is an area that a lot of car fans drive to because it's a fun drive in and out. The hydrogen refueling station was new to us. I recall some discussion of hydrogen by our former Gov. Schwarzenegger. Not sure what has developed since. I have seen hydrogen stations on the freeways, just seemed interesting to be out in the woods.

 

[bluestarct]

Sure but there is still the infrastructure and storage problems with hydrogen--neither of which have shown improvements lately.

Yes solid state batteries have been discussed for quite some time with no results to show for it either but there are far more companies, universities, etc. researching battery tech than there are for hydrogen. For the past few years battery tech has seen a steady improvement in capacity, and costs.

If a Petro, Travel America, Flying J or another large truck stop company could make a huge difference in the long haul business.

 

[RonTCat]

California's 'Hydrogen Highway' continues to expand. Below is the state's map.

California offers the largest rebates ($4500) for Fuel Cell EVs plus doesn't restrict that rebate to certain income levels like they do for BEVs.

Calif Hydrogen Station Map

Hydrogen is the fuel of the future, and it always will be.

 

[JamieGeek]

California's 'Hydrogen Highway' continues to expand. Below is the state's map.

California offers the largest rebates ($4500) for Fuel Cell EVs plus doesn't restrict that rebate to certain income levels like they do for BEVs.

Calif Hydrogen Station Map

Compare that to the # of charge stations on plugshare (you can even restrict it to DCFC's since those would be most comparable).

 

[FredT]

California's 'Hydrogen Highway' continues to expand. Below is the state's map.

California offers the largest rebates ($4500) for Fuel Cell EVs plus doesn't restrict that rebate to certain income levels like they do for BEVs.

Calif Hydrogen Station Map

The fuel supply problems seems to continue, however. Many of those stations are "out of fuel".

 

[ChasingCoral]

That’s the running joke of course for H2.

In this country a lot will depend on Nikola and if they can execute and if they can stay solvent. Their plans include a nationwide network of H2 stations for their Class 8 trucks. The State of California just this week approved more investments in the state’s hydrogen highway.

California Increases Investment in Hydrogen

In Japan and China, H2 is mandated so the future there is controlled by the government. Japan will highlight H2 during the 2020 2021 Olympics.

Toyota is increasing Fuel Cell production by 10 fold this year, so they seem undaunted despite the challenges. An interesting aspect of the all new 2021 Mirai is it‘s considered a Negative Emissions Vehicle. The air leaving the fuel cell is cleaner than what enters. A unique twist for the EV market.

Haven't you heard? Nikola is all but dead:
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...kup-and-investment-will-supply-fuel-cell-tech
https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...start-up-nikola-from-the-new-york-times.2174/

 

[First Edition]

Haven't you heard? Nikola is all but dead:
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...kup-and-investment-will-supply-fuel-cell-tech
https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...start-up-nikola-from-the-new-york-times.2174/

The Badger pickup truck is all but dead, but that was always a side show for Nikola. Nikola‘s core product was always Class 8. Nikola which will continue to develop that to production, or they will run out of money and crash and burn, Hindenburg style.

Meanwhile, Toyota has a test fleet of fuel cell Class 8 trucks currently operating in California and are expected to further develop the technology for the Class 8 market through their Hino subsidiary. Daimler is also entering the Class 8 fuel cell market, so Nikola has some tough competition.

The State of California contInues to be a big proponent of hydrogen and keeps building out the refueling infrastructure and providing big incentives for H2 vehicles.

 

[ChasingCoral]

The Badger pickup truck is all but dead, but that was always a side show for Nikola. Nikola‘s core product was always Class 8. Nikola which will continue to develop that to production, or they will run out of money and crash and burn, Hindenburg style.

Meanwhile, Toyota has a test fleet of fuel cell Class 8 trucks currently operating in California and are expected to further develop the technology for the Class 8 market through their Hino subsidiary. Daimler is also entering the Class 8 fuel cell market, so Nikola has some tough competition.

The State of California contInues to be a big proponent of hydrogen and keeps building out the refueling infrastructure and providing big incentives for H2 vehicles.

Nikola has $900 million in the bank, lost $117 million last quarter
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/1...on-in-the-bank-lost-117-million-last-quarter/

As for hydrogen, there's almost no infrastructure outside CA.

 

[mattbostonmache]

If they can set up the infrastructure, hydrogen fuel cells will be good for trucking. I just don't see it for consumer cars.

Building fueling infrastructure on the interstates is doable. But getting it to every corner of the country, I just don't see that happening.

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